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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I hope so too Crew,this the first fl that has gone horribly wrong but look at how many that has gone right

a wobble,maybe

the anomaly charts i posted earlier give me hope/optimism but they can change just as well as the ops,rocky ground!!,i hope not,jelly wobbles!!!,i hope so.

off to bed now,the model roller coaster part 6379...continues.

The things is, the control has followed the op today too-

18z GEFS mean-

image.thumb.png.6528c9c90eb81d5ce3ba1d1bc2537d21.png

Now compare to the control-

image.thumb.png.e3d0760de02f002fc5913efebca9afb4.png

Suggests to me that the ensembles are not picking up on the upstream pattern change that we have seen over the past 24 hrs. They will catch up though unfortunately.

You can see the spread here- the area just to the S of Greenland correlates exactly to the spoiler low shown on the control run height anomaly

image.thumb.png.fca8101314e59b71c2bd1f6823ff0dfe.png

This suggests to me that the 18z and control are quite likely on to something as they have the higher resolution.

 

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Yep, control follows Op and they look almost identical at 192. Love to be proved wrong but game over IMHO ☠️

That said, it was looking like a fairly insipid and weak affair anyway so we haven't actually lost much. I was never convinced of anything good but I did think a coolish UK high might be our fate but such is life.

The weather makes fools of us all, so if this post doesn't result in cross model agreement on blizzards in the morning I'll be most disappointed 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I wouldn't discount this colder settled Xmas,I can't see the the met being as far out as the 18Z is proclaiming! Has much as I ramp up those cold ensembles,I just can't see significant cold at this stage..Be prepared for something more Atlantic driven as we start the New Year...An SSW is most likely going to be required to shake things up again,its going to be very unfortunate if favourable synoptic deliver nothing at all. The last thing we want is for the Vortex to couple and regain its strength...its going to need a big hit with a favourable outcome,but worryingly the Long range Models do not seem to be favouring this outcome just yet...Glosea and 46 for instance..thats not to say they are correct and a lot can change! I'm still thinking final 3rd of next month we could get lucky,but thats a long way off and much will change up to that point.Be prepared to be patient here folks, and let's face it,we are used to playing the long game....start to despair if we are still in a very similar position this time next month,until then keep the faith.

GFS 18z...what a garbage run from a garbage stable...last night it was all out cold,tonight its completely gone the other way...this time tomorrow it will be Day after tomorrow scenario again...laugh....I nearly messed myself...Even me gran laughed at that run.

2bmRhY.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Come to papa....all is forgiven.. 

gens-19-1-264.png

tenor-2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Usual overreaction in here because of gfs not showing the next ice age in fl, like it never changes its ouput every 6 hours, good or worse than previous run 

No wonder SM packed it in, the frustration of some of the posts in here. 

GFS should stop at 144 like ukmo so nobody could comment on the garbage it normally shows after that time frame. 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Indeed, the fact is the scatter begins at just 5 days out so  taking day 9/10 at face value from one run is probably not going to be a good forecast.

There has been a trend for less amplification which isn't great but the options have always been muddled.

I think this will be a big day for giving us some clearer information given we should start to clear the scatter from day 5 which will then help with better understanding where we go in FI from there.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Usual overreaction in here because of gfs not showing the next ice age in fl, like it never changes its ouput every 6 hours, good or worse than previous run 

No wonder SM packed it in, the frustration of some of the posts in here. 

GFS should stop at 144 like ukmo so nobody could comment on the garbage it normally shows after that time frame. 

The GFS would be more accurate if it didn’t even roll out sometimes, I can’t believe that they pay for it to run out to 384 hours four times a day.

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
52 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The GFS would be more accurate if it didn’t even roll out sometimes, I can’t believe that they pay for it to run out to 384 hours four times a day.

Too much emphasis on gfs all the time in here, especially the latter ouput if it's showing the next ice age, problem is it's not even very accurate upto t144 hours compared to the other models when you look at the verification stats, never mind the crud it churns out 4 times a day in its latter ouput. 

Why its latter ouput hasn't been cut I don't know, yes it may look nice when it shows these snowy charts with huge Siberian Highs etc, but utterly pointless as they never come to fruition! 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
27 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Too much emphasis on gfs all the time in here, especially the latter ouput if it's showing the next ice age, problem is it's not even very accurate upto t144 hours compared to the other models when you look at the verification stats, never mind the crud it churns out 4 times a day in its latter ouput. 

Why its latter ouput hasn't been cut I don't know, yes it may look nice when it shows these snowy charts with huge Siberian Highs etc, but utterly pointless as they never come to fruition! 

 

It's not just the GFS though is it? 

The ECM was also not great.

As much as we'd like to ignore model output that doesn't show great things, it's not how model analysis works unfortunately.

This thread is for model analysis, so if the models are showing a certain scenario then that scenario will be discussed.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Yeah ecm not much better after t1444 either, any chance just one of these mega fl charts from either gfs or ECM could actually come off just Once 

It would certainly cheer up a lot of folk if we got a white Xmas or white new year in this wretched year we have all suffered.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Good morning.

First model out in today's "crucial" runs is ICON

Not a model I rate but comparing like for like it is more amplified than some previous runs which may augur well for other output.

It cleans the trough too quickly and too cleanly E on this run in my opinion but looking at the bigger picture has a very nice N hemisphere profile with strong, almost vertical, Atlantic ridge, deep ScEuro Trough and Siberian ridge with polar high so plenty of scope for E type flow to set up from there if it were anywhere near accurate.

iconnh-0-180.png?17-00

 

So GFS rolling out as I type and here is the day 5 chart

gfsnh-0-120.png

More amplified than recent runs up to this point which can only be a good thing.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Don’t think my eyes deceive me but ridge has NE movement this could be an interesting outcome low quite useful close to our to SW.

DE0CD05A-1DA1-46DF-A439-07026564A82D.thumb.png.0995bea763198738b122d6b17d262c10.png9F2350C2-05BC-4186-8CAF-47697A56C182.thumb.png.534276c4f6df9dea85596312b87257e0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Absolute ridiculous differences between the 18z and 0z GFS. Shows the 2 opposing outcomes over what happens upstream though.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

2020 going out with a bang according to this run with a crazy Winter storm and blizzards for the N 

gfs-0-306.png

 

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