Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Skullzrulerz]

33 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Extended eps while continuing to show low heights over Europe now indicates a flatter Atlantic profile as hinted in the day 10 mean.  Still reasonable but trending the wrong way I am afraid.

Are the EPS extended updated daily ? 

 

[mountain shadow]

29 minutes ago, Daniel said:

ECM clusters 

What worth are these though?

Are they really showing Northerly blocking or just higher than average pressure to our North, but not high enough for a proper cold spell?

[Chertseystreamer79]

Came in for a quick check in and first post was ecm at day 10.....

Although it's not all bad or good its day 10....AGAIN! 

Can I set an alert once we are inside that?

 

Onwards!

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What worth are these though?

Are they really showing Northerly blocking or just higher than average pressure to our North, but not high enough for a proper cold spell?

Remeber It’s not pressure - it’s heights. They are showing decent strength anomolys to disrupt and block

but way too varied with six in the extended to bother with analysis 

11 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Are the EPS extended updated daily ? 

 

The extended eps referred to are because the charts beyond day 10 are mostly behind a paywall. So we reference the period days 10/15 as ‘the extended eps’.   

[Portsmouth Sun]

2 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Came in for a quick check in and first post was ecm at day 10.....

Although it's not all bad or good its day 10....AGAIN! 

Can I set an alert once we are inside that?

 

Onwards!

Good luck!!

[snowbob]

Think this is technically model related 

if not mods please move 

reading reports of the snow storm in America going a bit pear shaped.
reports of heavy rain in Washington. Can only imagine how fitting that is for them (ha ha ) we experience it so much more with us being an island.

not being happy or anything ( welcome to our world ). Can’t see some parts getting A foot of snow as predicted. New York turning to sleet in the next few hours. Obviously could be complete cods wallop and could turn back to snow.

but seriously wondering what affect this will have to the model outlook now as this has obviously gone a different route to the now forecast.

be it good or bad things will obviously change on next run.

could possibly explain all the shifting the last 24 hours.

think the pub run will deffo be different now due to this.

Edited December 16, 2020 by snowbob

[Day 10]

13 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Came in for a quick check in and first post was ecm at day 10.....

Although it's not all bad or good its day 10....AGAIN! 

Can I set an alert once we are inside that?

 

Onwards!

Day 9 any good?

[Mike Poole]

Well JMA T192 looks decent, you’d have to admit:

Look I think we are at a reet crossroads here, I’d guess it is probably 2:1 in favour of a toppler on the current model output.  But there is so much uncertainty in the next 8 days let alone what comes after, let’s hold fire on predictions for Christmas or New Year.   Although Christmas does look cold, snowy? That is much less clear...

Strat wise, forecast is for reduction in zonal winds, while NAM plot (GFS 0z) suggests trop maybe even winning the strat trop disconnect thing (not that its like the FA cup or anything!):

AAM, I always come up against two things here, the only plot I have is this one:

Bubbling under, you might say.  The other problem i have is this, and it is directed to those who have the more detailed GSDM plots, It is a good hindcast tool, understanding what has happened, but forecasting isn’t it just reliant as reliant on the models as the rest of it? In this case the CFS?  

SSTs:

Not much change since last time I posted it, La Niña east based and warm North Sea, let’s hope that is the direction the winds come from...we will see...

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Well JMA T192 looks decent, you’d have to admit:

Look I think we are at a reet crossroads here, I’d guess it is probably 2:1 in favour of a toppler on the current model output.  But there is so much uncertainty in the next 8 days let alone what comes after, let’s hold fire on predictions for Christmas or New Year.   Although Christmas does look cold, snowy? That is much less clear...

Strat wise, forecast is for reduction in zonal winds, while NAM plot (GFS 0z) suggests trop maybe even winning the strat trop disconnect thing (not that its like the FA cup or anything!):

AAM, I always come up against two things here, the only plot I have is this one:

Bubbling under, you might say.  The problem i have is this, and it is directed to those who have the more detailed GSDM plots, It is a good hindcast tool, understanding what has happened, but forecasting isn’t it just reliant as reliant on the models as the rest of it? In this case the CFS?  

SSTs:

Not much change since last time I posted it, La Niña east based and warm North Sea, let’s hope that is the direction the winds come from...we will see...

 

I wouldn't imagine there would have been much change with those SSTS Mike,being as you only posted em last night....at least give it a week!! Lol  

Extended ECM mean out to day 14 and we keep 850s around -2 to -3c....pressure close to 1020mb...so settled looks the odds on favourite till months end...beyond that I feel perhaps an Atlantic uptick with some wetter conditions,but I don't think it will be necessarily locked in...better things await...

[Day 10]

ICON could be about to improve here, the high in the Atlantic looking a little further north.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I wouldn't imagine there would have been much change with those SSTS Mike,being as you only posted em last night....at least give it a week!! Lol  

Extended ECM mean out to day 14 and we keep 850s around -2 to -3c....pressure close to 1020mb...so settled looks the odds on favourite till months end...beyond that I feel perhaps an Atlantic uptick with some wetter conditions,but I don't think it will be necessarily locked in...better things await...

LOL Matt!  Did I? I have already admitted to being on the beer yesterday!  Not with friends or anything because that is not permitted here.   It is good to know that in this horrid unpredictable covid world, the SSTs don’t change from one day to the next

Edited December 16, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ICON?  Only goes out to T120, here compared to 12z at same time:

The system circled is better developed which would be better down the line if it went further.  

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON?  Only goes out to T120, here compared to 12z at same time:

The system circled is better developed which would be better down the line if it went further.  

The jet taking energy slightly more south south East in our locale too? Small changes can have a big impact further down the line 

 

[Griff]

Not sure where we're at... 

I think it was Steve Murr (I might be wrong), who said:

“Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.”

To be honest I'm broken from work, I can't keep up with the daytime runs and too knackered at night. 

All I want for Christmas is a day off to be honest

Anyway to keep this model related, apologies if already posted previously, but may introduce to you the GFSP... Once again, don't phone it's just for fun! 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Griff

[snowlessayr]

I don't really get all the gloom and doom and gloom in here from some this evening. No point getting hung up on 1 bad run. if we always did this then god forbid many on here are going to suffer some serious heart problems soon. I think that our current situation is still a pretty decent one, the polar vortex isn't exactly raging and we are not seen what we would consider raging zonality. 

Some posts on here are very misleading, particularly the one about uk not seeing any snow so far. Quite a fair few areas have including myself.

The GEFS didn't look too shabby at all and the UKMO looked fairly good, still all to play for in regards to Christmas and for the foreseeable future.

Thanks 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

So looking at the trends.

ECM ens day 6, 8 and 10

      

It looks like the final destination of that Arctic high is becoming more certain, dropping into central Russia. Not a bad place to end up as the trough west of it should sit close to Scandinavia. So essentially trough east/ridge west of the UK looks quite sustainable at some level. A flow north of west through and beyond Christmas looks more likely than not. However there is a difference between cyclonic north/north westerlies and a generally chilly airmass overhead and an anticyclonic one where milder maritime air is drawn around the high. The amount of amplitude in the Atlantic seems to be dependent on how well ridging in the Pacific and over Russia develop and inhibit to movement of very cold air over Siberia from transferring into the currently weaker lobe over Canada.

Clearly the coldies dream scenario is the Pacific/Russia ridge double act allows a large ridge to build to our west towards Greenland that would in essence finish off the polar vortex at the lower levels of the atmosphere. Worth noting that the GEFs keep the trough to our east all the way to the end of its run.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Matt H]

I’ve often posted about how highly I rate the NASA model. No idea why I ever had any doubts about this upcoming cold snap.In all seriousness a decent pub run is needed this evening, here’s hoping for the best.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So looking at the trends.

ECM ens day 6, 8 and 10

      

It looks like the final destination of that Arctic high is becoming more certain, dropping into central Russia. Not a bad place to end up as the trough west of it should sit close to Scandinavia. So essentially trough east/ridge west of the UK looks quite sustainable at some level. A flow north of west through and beyond Christmas looks more likely than not. However there is a difference between cyclonic north/north westerlies and a generally chilly airmass overhead and an anticyclonic one where milder maritime air is drawn around the high. The amount of amplitude in the Atlantic seems to be dependent on how well ridging in the Pacific and over Russia develop and inhibit to movement of very cold air over Siberia from transferring into the currently weaker lobe over Canada.

Clearly the coldies dream scenario is the Pacific/Russia ridge double act allows a large ridge to build to our west towards Greenland that would in essence finish off the polar vortex at the lower levels of the atmosphere. Worth noting that the GEFs keep the trough to our east all the way to the end of its run.

Yes, good post, and into the stratosphere, that would continue to add pressure, although there’s a careful what you wish for element there as a SSW is unpredictable.  All interesting stuff.....

[blizzard81]

Interestingly enough, the latest cfs weekly anomaly for week 2 is a good match for the ecm op day 10. So, looking further on to week 3, the cfs still sticks with the mid atlantic high. Is this where we are heading I wonder? Not exactly earth moving for coldies but at least it isn't full on zonal. 

[Allseasons-Si]

A long post coming up...

lets have a look at the ecm and gfs 12z from day ten counting down the day six today

i would say that this is remarkable consistency NH wise from day ten to six

now to some other stuff...

the gefs ens look cold going into the festive period with a flat line just hovering or near to the -5 isotherm and the mean(red line) not far off now from the ens in that respect,can we squeeze that little bit more out of them nearer the time,it is certainly possible and i think it is worth a punt on the big day......up north, 

the EPS are still showing a similar pattern to yesterday's but with more of a marked trough further south into mainland Europe instead of the UK with trop pv still located over eastern Siberia with downstream trough E pacific and upstream ridge W N America forcing downstream trough E states with upstream ridge mid/north Atlantic,...and breathe 

this all looks good and well at a quick glance but we need this Atlantic ridge further north to benefit more of a blast from the NW/N or NE depending how far north this ridge goes

the latest from cpc still show similar to what i mentioned ^

the De-built ecm ens wind direction shows(in the minority) of a northerly now and it wasn't clear or showing this a couple of days ago

 

the models will be...

ing...and...ing for a while yet

but i will take all the positives for now

Edit:this is the second time i have had to write all this out and took me ages as i pressed a button somehow and it all disappeared

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

I’ve often posted about how highly I rate the NASA model. No idea why I ever had any doubts about this upcoming cold snap.In all seriousness a decent pub run is needed this evening, here’s hoping for the best.

I wonder why the NASA model always goes for wintry nirvana in these situations. Same every year. 

[Matt H]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I wonder why the NASA model always goes for wintry nirvana in these situations. Same every year. 

Yep, my dog could put together a more accurate forecast than the NASA model.

[Jeremy Shockey]

 JMA 12z ...just for fun but thank you JMA

JMA ( January Snow My Arse ) 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Jeremy Shockey

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, fromey said:

Hi, just read in Twitter land that the storm affecting the North East of the USA has taken a slight shift to the south! Don’t know by how much but it just goes to show that even at short range ( and we are talking a matter of hours) how things can change and will continue to change and evolve, so expect a lot more chopping and changing to come from the models.

That may be good news, the low may be further south in the over night runs., Still plenty to sort out, it seems.

[Methuselah]

35 minutes ago, Griff said:

Not sure where we're at... 

I think it was Steve Murr (I might be wrong), who said:

“Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.”

To be honest I'm broken from work, I can't keep up with the daytime runs and too knackered at night. 

All I want for Christmas is a day off to be honest

Anyway to keep this model related, apologies if already posted previously, but may introduce to you the GFSP... Once again, don't phone it's just for fun! 

Well, I don't know... why should one need 'someone-else' to tell them that the outlook is 'difficult to see'? Blimey, peeps, you should've been around in the 1960s... when 48-hours was FI?!