Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Amongst the excitement I took a look at ukmo 144 , and it looks worryingly similar to GFS 00z..

Hmmmmmmm..

Take a look at t120 and then t144.....and look at the ridge building and the trough around SW of Greenland retreat.  That’ll show a more robust Atlantic ridge t168 rather than a topple.

t120

t144

that to me looks like a good developing run

 

 BFTP

Edited December 16, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

Nice to see GFS bringing back a more stable cold setup at Christmas!!

Another run i would take right now....

A frost for many tues 22nd 

Wed 23rd,again a frost for many..

Christmas eve night

Christmas Night..

Boxing night..

Temps close to zero up north through the day, coupled with the shorter daylight could produce some stunning Winter scenes over the festive period.

[Matt H]

A few snapshots from the beautiful GFS parallel run this morning.

[Thunder and Lightning]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

A few snapshots from the beautiful GFS parallel run this morning.

The last one

[nick sussex]

Good agreement between the ECM and GFS at day 9.

The lobe of high pressure to the ne and the shortwave just south of Greenland .

Ideally you want that heading se not south .

The drama continues on till this evening!

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 06Z is a peach Day 9 after yesterdays FI absurdity.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Iceaxecrampon

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

A few snapshots from the beautiful GFS parallel run this morning.

Got the 850s chart for that last one?

That is a thing of pure beauty!

[Zak M]

Some Christmas Day snow on this run for some of England and Wales. Uppers are just about cold enough too.

   
 

Muy bien! 

[Met4Cast]

Are we really getting excited over a toppler northerly? Deary me it has been a poor couple of years hasn't it 

There's a huge amount of spread within the EPS as we approach the Christmas period, though there is a clear signal for reducing temperatures as we approach Christmas day itself, although I would expect the "coldest" period to be just after Christmas. Snow risk looks rather muted at the moment. 

[northwestsnow]

Not a bad ending either....

[IDO]

The gfs 06z gives us 4-5 days of sub-0c uppers before going a bit weird. Though I do like the NH profile in FI:

 

Nice if we could see that trending. I do feel that we will see many more varying d10 charts as just looking at how the 06z ran you can see the ebb and flow of opposing forces and only subtle changes could make substantive differences to a run...

Edited December 16, 2020 by IDO

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Are we really getting excited over a toppler northerly? Deary me it has been a poor couple of years hasn't it 

There's a huge amount of spread within the EPS as we approach the Christmas period, though there is a clear signal for reducing temperatures as we approach Christmas day itself, although I would expect the "coldest" period to be just after Christmas. Snow risk looks rather muted at the moment. 

Yes&Yes

[Purga]

A good looking NH chart I must say!

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

A good looking NH chart I must say!

and we're looking out to the 31st on that chart and it's the GFS...say no more.

ECM 0z continues to be rather disappointing (certainly compared to the 12z's).

Edited December 16, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[feb1991blizzard]

12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

How would one like their PV sliced?

I raise you.  -   Like a knife through butter.

[Jason M]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Are we really getting excited over a toppler northerly? Deary me it has been a poor couple of years hasn't it 

There's a huge amount of spread within the EPS as we approach the Christmas period, though there is a clear signal for reducing temperatures as we approach Christmas day itself, although I would expect the "coldest" period to be just after Christmas. Snow risk looks rather muted at the moment. 

At present it looks like the sort of cold spell that won't be noticed by people outside of this forum. Some cold frosty nights and cool days. Cool enough to keep the BBQ locked away but no need for the snow shovel either. Looking through the GEFS quite a few don't amplify sufficiently and are as flat as a pancake. That said, the bigger grouping do get there and on balance a weak northerly still looks the most likely outcome as of now.

Some good looking charts around the place today but most flatter to deceive so still a bit meh but not the hopeless scenario of recent years.

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 06z ensemble mean Dec 24th

That is a very encouraging GEFS 06z ensemble mean for the start of Christmas Eve. There will be some very good options in there for cold.

[mushymanrob]

For the GFS 06z @ t240 onwards to be right, then every anomaly chart would need to be wrong.

Personally, i cant see that myself.

[Methuselah]

GFS has all gone a bit 'fot the wuck' this morning... But, at least Day 16 looks loaded with potential:

    

But never mind: what one model taketh away, another giveth... So, it's all eyes to the NAVGEM and BOM! Such are the joys of model-watching?

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

For the GFS 06z @ t240 onwards to be right, then every anomaly chart would need to be wrong.

Personally, i cant see that myself.

What are these charts showing?

[Skullzrulerz]

28 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Are we really getting excited over a toppler northerly? Deary me it has been a poor couple of years hasn't it 

There's a huge amount of spread within the EPS as we approach the Christmas period, though there is a clear signal for reducing temperatures as we approach Christmas day itself, although I would expect the "coldest" period to be just after Christmas. Snow risk looks rather muted at the moment. 

It's certainly true that it's not going to be a cold spell for the ages but instead more like a seasonal Christmas for most 

If I can ask do you see any potential in January?

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

What are these charts showing?

The anomaly charts are showing a positive pressure rise over Southern Greenland. The GFS reckons there will be a deep trough sweeping Eastwards. Charts are posted already on this thread.

[Jason M]

GEFS at day 10 are poor (albeit still a few good runs in there). I think we will know much better where were headed by the end of the day as I suspect that the flatter zonal runs will either start to reduce in number significantly tonight or we will be looking at a poor set come 5pm.

Seeing the GEFS at day 8 I was still thinking about a weak northerly but ECM looks too amplified to me (isn't it always) and seeing the GEFS at day 10 (the opp doesn't look a big outlier) I'm starting to wonder.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's certainly true that it's not going to be a cold spell for the ages but instead more like a seasonal Christmas for most 

If I can ask do you see any potential in January?

Developments in the stratosphere for January continue to provide some interest, I'm still thinking an SSW is possible by mid-January which could allow for something more interesting to take hold later in the month. Until then, we're really relying on trop/MJO forcing & I feel La Nina is having a destructive influence over the strength of any MJO phasing so I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that one.. 

[ITSY]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I raise you.  -   Like a knife through butter.

This is a special looking chart. Savour it! The entire dominant winter flow across  Eurasia is changed and tilted clockwise 90 degrees!