Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Day 10]

Note to self when checking phone to read comments while eyes still ridiculously stuck together (yes, this roller-coaster has me reaching for this forum before anything else, very important lol), look at charts first. Still looks to me  

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Note to self when checking phone to read comments while eyes still ridiculously stuck together (yes, this roller-coaster has me reaching for this forum before anything else, very important lol), look at charts first. Still looks to me  

Lol I know the feeling mate!!! Still. All. Signs are good and ECM dayer is also looking cold with a northeasterly feed showing for Christmas week and beyond!! 

[mountain shadow]

As ever, the reality will probably fall somewhere between the extremes of the ECM and GFS ops.

Looking at the Meto medium ranger this morning indicates they favour more of the former than the latter but we should expect drier high pressure to dominate.

 

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Note to self when checking phone to read comments while eyes still ridiculously stuck together (yes, this roller-coaster has me reaching for this forum before anything else, very important lol), look at charts first. Still looks to me  

So I am not the only one?!

[Sweatyman]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs proving its utterly pointless after t144 hours with all this wild swings in its ouput every 6 hours of the day

Utterly pointless after 24 hrs

[Decemberof2010]

Even though they’re utterly pointless after 6 hours, there are some nice GEFS members to look at this morning. 
 

[Daniel*]

it’s worth recognising the far north expected to turn colder few days earlier only from day 6 the crappy GFS agrees as well. It’s not that distant for some.

[Tim Bland]

Morning gang. As usual there as some positives and negatives this morning. Positives are that ECM still goes for it. Negatives are the GFS has backed off an the GEM is still having none of it. I respect the GEM and wheel it out when it goes cold so only fair I refer to it now. It hasn’t ever really gone for any cold after Boxing Day (from the high slipping ) GEFS are still spilt and there are only a few going for a week long cold spell Xmas to New year.  Expecting the GFS to keep flitting between solutions for a few days yet. 

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z

The ECM 0z Op was one of the coldest runs ( 24th -26th Dec ) but the mean is still very good.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Jeremy Shockey

[Zak M]

Guys, look at P30

   

[Man With Beard]

I've got a feeling I will not be so popular after posts like these but a) Though the ECM looks good synoptically, there's almost no snow on it right out till Christmas Day and b) GFS is reasonably good at forecasting what happens at the tip of Greenland, so not to be disparaged!

[syed2878]

45 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As ever, the reality will probably fall somewhere between the extremes of the ECM and GFS ops.

Looking at the Meto medium ranger this morning indicates they favour more of the former than the latter but we should expect drier high pressure to dominate.

 

 this is what I said yesterday afternoon looking at the Met Office update I am wary of the upcoming cold spell touted by the ECM it would be good to have the Met office on board with the medium and extended outlook.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

This will do from ECM 240. Flicking between 216 and 240 I noted pressure flowing and drooping to our south.. heights nudging towards Norway and maybe a little bump of heights forming tip of Greenland.

Most agreeable I thought

 

 

 

It still has that low from green land dropping south lol, how often do you see that in two runs in a row. It's heading for Africa rather than us this time though 

[Ali1977]

A nice ECM which could lead to quite a long colder spell, but not a great METO long range yesterday.

The METO has been known to flip their medium range predictions quite late, but if the ECM is close to correct you’d expect quite a big change in the METO forecast today. I know MODS don’t like discussing their forecasts on the forum but when there’s a white Xmas in the mix I hope they let this ride.

 

A few day 10s below, with the GEM similar the GFS

Edited December 16, 2020 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z shows some wintry potential for crimbo!

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

ECM 0z

The ECM 0z Op was one of the coldest runs ( 24th -26th Dec ) but the mean is still very good.

That tallies with my thoughts on the gefs, that there is a lot of entropy and we may not have even seen the solution for d10 yet. The above chart shows that after d4 a lot of scatter so it does look like ecm ens are also showing a few options. The ecm op likely in the coldest cluster (as usual) so usual warnings for its d10 chart!

The good news is that we do look like a cold spell is incoming. The d11 gefs charts:

d11 ens>  London>

No real guidance here, as the complications start many days before. Can we get a longer cold spell from the ridge toppling? I would say 50:50 at the moment based on the gefs^^^ Not really a snowy cold spell showing and if the mean is the guide then not really that cold either but seasonal at least and the potential remains.

[Climate Man]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I've got a feeling I will not be so popular after posts like these but a) Though the ECM looks good synoptically, there's almost no snow on it right out till Christmas Day and b) GFS is reasonably good at forecasting what happens at the tip of Greenland, so not to be disparaged!

Happy to settle for bright and frosty. We are then in the hands of where the high pressure ends up post Christmas and that, nobody knows.

[nick sussex]

Looks like a morning hangover , what the hell happened last night ! 

Anyway we’ve been here before many times however before the obituaries are placed a few things to bear in mind .

The GFS is not preferred over the USA  early next week with US forecasters preferring the ECM for its handling of the amplified wave which moves east.

On the face of it both the ECM and GFS have the same overall pattern upto day 8  , if you  look at the main features the key difference is the ECM engages the chunk of PV over ne Canada , the GFS doesn’t .

And it’s flatter at the key timeframe where you want the mid Atlantic low held back .

So I think best to wait till tonight’s runs as the pattern is sensitive to small changes in the degree of amplitude upstream .

 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

it’s worth recognising the far north expected to turn colder few days earlier only from day 6 the crappy GFS agrees as well. It’s not that distant for some.

Yes, approaching very cold up in Scotland !!

If a major city is showing -4/-5 you could probably knock a degree or two off for more rural settings...

Of course we will see the benefit of the extremely short days ,a pretty perfect time of the year for a cold high...

[Anthony Burden]

Still a lot of caution needed with the charts,pressure rise looks nailed on for how long

and where is yet to be established.Hopefully by Friday we will have much better idea

and both gfs and ecm will amalgamate.

[Tim Bland]

Come on GFS give us a belter of a 6z. Just a reminder of last nights Scotch egg (18z) run. This is where the bar is set...No pressure ....

92BA2C2B-5077-4BDF-9768-DF699F12112A.webp

Edited December 16, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Thunder and Lightning]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Come on GFS give us a belter of a 6z. Just a reminder of last nights Scotch egg (18z) run. This is where the bar is set...No pressure ....

92BA2C2B-5077-4BDF-9768-DF699F12112A.webp 35.96 kB · 5 downloads

Nervously awaiting the 6z GFS as well...

[Jason M]

22 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Still a lot of caution needed with the charts,pressure rise looks nailed on for how long

and where is yet to be established.Hopefully by Friday we will have much better idea

and both gfs and ecm will amalgamate.

Still all to play for, albeit the models tend to correct slightly east with northerlies (as well as over amplify), so if I were a gambling man, looking at the output this morning I'm thinking we will end up with a weak northerly followed by a fairly cold UK high. It looks a more promising set up than the last (largely imaginary) cold spell that went pear shaped, but I'm not seeing much to get very excited over at this point. Unlike the last time however there is scope for potential improvements within the overall set up.

As things stand currently it looks 'rather cold' between new Xmas and new year. Of course,, these days the media will be talking of bitter cold and meto will no doubt proclaim that a cold weather emergency will be declared  . 

[northwestsnow]

Amongst the excitement I took a look at ukmo 144 , and it looks worryingly similar to GFS 00z..

Hmmmmmmm..

[PiscesStar]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Amongst the excitement I took a look at ukmo 144 , and it looks worryingly similar to GFS 00z..

Hmmmmmmm..

But if the gfs 06z upgrades... Then What?