Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Daniel]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs ooz running .. and backtracking from its 18z suite....     Edit; considerably!!!

Was always gonna be the case but yes a big backtrack

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Was always gonna be the case but yes a big backtrack

 

6 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Was always gonna be the case but yes a big backtrack

Yeah we knew it didn’t we !!!..  however.. it’s 1 run since the previous.. and the energy sourcing.. has plenty of deciphering yet.. see where we go today/via outs- suites..

[Daniel]

High pressure to the south east of us does hold on tho so certainly not unsettled just not the cold easterly which the 18z had. 

[Daniel]

gonna be a good Fl as always

[SLEETY]

Gfs proving its utterly pointless after t144 hours with all this wild swings in its ouput every 6 hours of the day

[Daniel]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Gfs proving its utterly pointless after t144 hours with all this wild swings in its ouput every 6 hours of the day

Agreed it is getting a tad ridiculous maybe it should run twice a day like the ECM or just reduce the hours it goes out to 

[Mucka]

18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs proving its utterly pointless after t144 hours with all this wild swings in its ouput every 6 hours of the day

 

Yes. it is very muddled upstream after day 5/6, looks like anything could happen but the ridge has generally been getting flatter each run

Yesterdays 00z showed this for the 23rd

Today it shows this

So we can only hope we get something from the E/NE from the toppling ridge after any Northerly waft over Xmas unless the output backtracks.

That said, I have just looked at the ensembles and they are generally more amplified than the Op.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Mucka

[offerman]

The GoodForSodall charts doing its thing

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Nice to see significant Siberian warming getting closer shortly after day 10 now wave 2 action at end which might ultimately finish it off - we’ll have it.

Need to be careful with op late fi strat charts if the reason for the response is trop induced and that trop wave is beyond a reliable timescale 

[bluearmy]

There is a word for the gefs suite and it’s ‘AMPLIFICATION’ .......across vast swathes of the NH 

the 00z op just had the amplification in the wrong places for us to get v cold ........

[mulzy]

ECM at day 8 showing reasonable continuity from last night's run.  Will that low disrupt like last night or will the ridge topple.  Stay tuned!

[Weather-history]

Christmas night /Boxing Day 1927  and ECM 0z 

 

 

[Daniel*]

While GFS goes other way ECM is even more amplified than 12z. 
 

[Daniel*]

We won’t have any complaints here! 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There is a word for the gefs suite and it’s ‘AMPLIFICATION’ .......across vast swathes of the NH 

the 00z op just had the amplification in the wrong places for us to get v cold ........

Indeed.

Nothing wrong with this set this morning;

[bluearmy]

Beware ecm op runs bearing n Atlantic amplified solutions without cross model op support !

of course it has gefs support so let’s just forget about the Gsf and gem ops this morning ........

[Beanz]

2 hours ago, Daniel said:

Agreed it is getting a tad ridiculous maybe it should run twice a day like the ECM or just reduce the hours it goes out to 

Either stick to one (the same time) model run per day, take a blend of the days runs and never take a day in isolation.  That way you’ll rarely be disappointed and you’ll see through the noise. Look for trends, particularly past 144hrs. 

The tools are never wrong

[radiohead]

My goodness

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Beware ecm op runs bearing n Atlantic amplified solutions without cross model op support !

of course it has gefs support so let’s just forget about the Gsf and gem ops this morning ........

Eh? So forget it or go with it? Your saying both. Are you a politician?

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z for Dec 25th

ECM 0z delivers some good cold uppers for Christmas Day for many in the UK.

GFS 0z Op was fairly poor but there are many good options in the Ensembles

[Daniel*]

Can’t say I was expecting to wake up to a better run than 12z monster -NAO, not likely to happen, but I have noticed an increase in outputs which have a cold spell look to them.  

[Vikos]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Beware ecm op runs bearing n Atlantic amplified solutions without cross model op support !

of course it has gefs support so let’s just forget about the Gsf and gem ops this morning ........

Well, the final outcome can'tbe predicted by any model for sure, but the overall patterns mostly match (f.e. polar high, ridge). That's what's the important thing for me.

 

Best regards

[TSNWK]

This will do from ECM 240. Flicking between 216 and 240 I noted pressure flowing and drooping to our south.. heights nudging towards Norway and maybe a little bump of heights forming tip of Greenland.

Most agreeable I thought

 

 

 

[Chesil View]

29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Christmas night /Boxing Day 1927  and ECM 0z 

 

 

I noticed that too WH. Several GFS runs have shown this as well.

[Frosty.]

I’m happy to report the ECM 0z operational is still looking BLUE!...I mean cold in time for crimbo! ️