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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Don't worry,the GEM saves the day....

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.460fa6dff3fcebdfcc0166c0175a6232.png

in all seriousness,there is plenty of time for upgrades,...if any 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Ouch!

image.thumb.png.7c74e772e69d7c09e47f3f864b2eff97.png

This run looked like it was going the wrong direction by the 24th. Let's see where it sits in the ensembles but there's no denying that today has been poor. The mood could go back to what it was last Friday if this is representative and the ECM follows suit!

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

No more cyclogenesis at the eastcoast of USA it seems. Atlantic goes lockdown, too...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

24 hours in life a netweather model watcher.. this time yesterday popping corks for the Christmas and following week cold spell.

today we have this.. I can hardly bring myself to post it.. but for balance I guess I should..Jeeze...

image.thumb.png.a328dd63996d370726f38620ec446811.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

Beware the toppler as I mentioned yesterday.

That said laughable differences between the 6z and 12z GFS runs here for the big day.

1024mb high pressure over Iceland on the 6z run has been replaced with a 988mb low just West of Iceland on this run.

Which run will be closer to the outcome who knows?  Let's see where the run sits within the ensembles....

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
21 hours ago, Ventnor Viking said:

The ECM 240hr looks good. However, the energy to the west of Greenland/Canada could make any ridging short lived.  

ECM 240.png

I had a feeling this might happen.....I hope users don't get annoyed with others because they see a less cold solution. 

Anyway, the NH profile allows for more possibilities early next year, but according to the Met long range models amongst others suggest this could be a pretty snowless winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

Beware the toppler as I mentioned yesterday.

That said laughable differences between the 6z and 12z GFS runs here for the big day.

1024mb high pressure over Iceland on the 6z run has been replaced with a 988mb low just West of Iceland on this run.

Which run will be closer to the outcome who knows?  Let's see where the run sits within the ensembles....

Yes.. and to think there were comments last 18z of west based NAO complete flip in 18 hours of modelling.. unbelievable Jeff !
 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Not the best start this evening!!!all starts with that shortwave leaving the states at 120 hours joining forces with the low across iceland!!pretty much game over from there on in!!!need that to be as slack as possible and sliding its as simple as that!!and look ay the PV reform across greenland at 264 hours on gfs!!been a long time since i seen that bad boy up there!!over to the ecm to stop this rut....

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 hours ago, Rapodo said:

Gavsweathervids on YouTube are well worth a watch, he goes into alot of detail in his presentations. This one based on the EC 30 day extended forecast is really worth a watch especially towards the end for those who would like more explanation of what its showing and his take on it. Shows why many were excited by it for those learning.

 

I tell you what the EC46 mean last night had little interest in any real cold through next month...but bizarrely run the sequence through all the weeks and the pattern is completely stuck,almost like its unwilling to bring a change or doesn't know how too. On the other hand my friend,the 46 control run is completely going against the mean...Its keen to bring substantial Heights over Greenland towards mid next month and to keep them for quite some time! I really hope its onto something with this,and will be checking again on Thursdays 12z run to see if its keeping with this pattern..certainly plenty of hope for me right now.

And folks please don't give up hope on the back of 1 bad GFS run...please...this model as more personalities than Donald Trump...we have been here before dont forget...only last week the towel was thrown in...keep ya towels for your substantial meals,when the pubs open of course..

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

It's only one GFS run and we don't even know where it sits in the ensembles.

Christmas is still over a week away, you can't expect full on consistency just yet.

Things will swing back and forth all week, for the better and worse. By the weekend we'll have a better idea, but I really wouldn't worry too much about anything just yet!

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Just a word of caution, if pre-emptive, to take from today: as much as it frustrates others, my rule of thumb is that unless the UK's leading professionals in the MetOffice are fully on-board with a distant cold snap, take everything you see with a healthy pinch of salt.

Whether you love or loathe them, they are the best in the business and make most (though not all of us) look quite amateur - which we are for the most part. Enjoy the ups and downs but don't believe in the best looking charts until they do, otherwise you'll just find yet more depression in what is actually an escape for most  

The xmas cold snap isn't over by a long way but prepare yourselves just in case. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Sheesh. It gets worse

image.thumb.png.083239dd3944da102c658971b6ea37e6.png

So, on this run we have about 2, maybe 3, frosts to look forward to. Cosmic

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

But what if it's right?

Just wait for the ENS, it will be an outlier

GFS is known for swinging and its atlantic bias... so no worry, stay optimistic.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Let’s see what the ECM does, I don’t think the UKM would flatten the pattern like the GFS went on too if it went past 144

The EPS this morning were a little concerning regarding the ridge but I don’t think there should be any undue panic yet - the GFS op has been flip flopping the last 3/4 runs.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Just wait for the ENS, it will be an outlier

GFS is known for swinging and its atlantic bias... so no worry, stay optimistic.

We could also say that the ECM over does the heights too 

I do want some cold weather but I'm also a realistic and keep my expectations low 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

That's why the GFS (garbage forecasting service) is pointless following over a certain range - about 2 days!

Stick to the ECM folks and in general you won't be going from one emotion to the other (even that model does have it's moments).

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Short ensembles

image.thumb.png.4035e265756fe69176128e134f73e861.png

The mild bump around 22nd that was there, then was crushed, is now back. I can feel a wobble

image.thumb.png.fa8519a0888f0a28cfaefafb050a803d.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters hot summers
  • Location: North Oxfordshire

soon getting into the reliable time frame territory of 144hr

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
12 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Are people really giving up about a possibly cold end to December based on one GFS run or am I going bonkers?!

Let's all remember that it might possibly be an outlier. Don't let one run fool you!

If you run your life by the Global Fail System then expect disappointment

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

Like Nick said, its too far out. 

While the last runs looked pretty good its now flipped in comparison. Could easily revert back though. Its going to see-saw by the looks of it, so lets see when the semi  reliable timeframe comes in to view

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
22 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Just wait for the ENS, it will be an outlier

GFS is known for swinging and its atlantic bias... so no worry, stay optimistic.

I can only assume I missed the ice age of the last decade then? 

Although the GFS has a bias, an obvious one and is quite frequently completely wrong when it comes to over-powering energy and the Atlantic in general. It shouldn't be discounted for picking up the pattern at the surface.

Only 2 weeks back the GFS and ECM were on board for an 'all roads lead to cold scenario'. Low and behold a couple of days later, the GFS showed energy being too much for our Russian block and the weather being unsettled, mild and damp in the UK - yes it got every detail wrong in terms of exactly how this unfolded. But, the Russian block drifted and our weather at the surface, showed exactly what the GFS wanted. Wet, mild and damp - not a single Frost in sight, let alone a flake! 

As soon as one model starts showing things falling apart where ridges and cold opportunities lay, you normally see the rest come on board - even if it takes them a couple of days. 

That being said nobody should be disappointed tonight, a thin section of uppers cold enough for Frost and mountain snow covered our shores for all of 2/3 model runs yesterday. Anyone getting excited over that or believing the cold is coming and then calling a 'failure of models' is laughable and needs to find another hobby. That also means that tonight's Westerly dominated, wet and mild festive period/new year could also be wrong.

Get your patterns and uppers into T72, if they fail before that it just means something changed in our incredibly fluid atmosphere. 

Models are wrong practically every single day of the year at T168+ - it's just that nobody picks up on it because Snow isn't the hot topic. There are just as many changes to the weather and patterns at those times in summer, it's just that there is nobody here to notice or moan about them (apart from Mr A single Cirrus cloud ruined my heatwave @Alderc himself). 

Plenty left to play for tonight. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Always best to wait for a cold spell to make it to 96 hours as has been mentioned before, or just expect it to fail otherwise, like the gfs is pointing out in the latest run today Cold runs in the latter stages of gfs ouput in particular may look exciting but they hardly ever verify. 

I hate northerly topplers because the jet rides over the top of the high and you can get Zonal weather for weeks, useless

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