Predictions for 2021?

[Weather-history]

Crystal ball time.

My weather predictions for 2021

January

Fairly unsettled by not overly mild and that wet, one or two short wintry episodes.

February

Drier than January, second half colder than the first half. Wintriest weather of the winter during the second half

March

Somewhat unsettled with one or two wintry episodes, overall a touch above average

April

A disappointing month, unsettled at times, wetter than average but on mild side

May 

Drier than April, some early summer warmth. 

June

A reasonable month on the dry side, pleasantly warm. Solar eclipse on the 10th akin to June 1996

July

A good summer's month, sunnier, drier and warmer than average akin to July 1999

August  

Not as good as July but still reasonable with the thundriest weather of the summer. Overall, a pretty decent summer akin to 1994, 1996

September

Dry, sunny month. some late summer warmth

October

Most unsettled month since April, wetter than average and a touch milder than average

November

Unsettled to a degree but with drier periods. Average temperatures

December: coldest and wintriest since 2010 akin to December 2001. This is a low bar when you think of the Decembers since 2010

 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

My predictions for 2021

January

Relativatly mild and dry not really wintry at all except for up nprth where there are a few wintery days. 

February

Rain and cold for the 2nd part of the month but for the first part wintery showers across most of the north and typically central England along with lots of snow in northern scotland and some showery snowstorms in Southern Scotland. 

March

A fair bit cloudy and rainy for most of the UK warm for this time of year towards the end of the month showers become more the story. 

April

Showery at first with typically average rain hot for this time of year perhaps a plume late in the month causing 25oc heat and thunderstorms across Central and Southern England. 

May

Dry and warm for this time of year perhaps droughts in southern England getting to 28oc and thunderstorms throughout the month. 

June

Average for this time of year heat wise turning more settled

July

Warm for this time of year perhaps the odd thunderstorm scattered across the UK towards the end of the month a few supercells occasionally pop up. 

August

Hot for this time of year 37.5oc and dry with a few thunderstorms. 

September

hot for this time of year rainfall above average

October

average for this time of year in heat rainfall above average with damaging wind being the heighest for the year up north in Scotland 101 mph gusts being the low

November

warm for this time of year typically above average rainfall and some snowfall up north

December

warm for this time of year some rain with a few more snow days sprinkled across the UK Christmas day for all is a typically vold day with some snow near places like the Peak district. 

[stainesbloke]

My predictions for 2021:

January: Quite cold with several attempts at wintry weather (more so in the north) but these generally short lived.

February: Much colder and wintry, some significant snow events mid month onwards, especially in the south.

March: starting off cold and wintry, then wet, then much milder with some early Spring sunshine

April: often sunny and warm, fairly dry

May: cooler and often cloudy with rain and thundery showers

June: cool start with showers, warm end with thunderstorms 

July: hot and dry first half, some violent thunderstorms mid month then much cooler and changeable 

August: mixed, some rain and showers but also some warm sunshine

September: warm, settled start then a cool end with windy conditions 

October: wet and windy first 3 weeks, colder later with frost and fog

November: cold start, chance of wintry showers and snow in Scotland. Much milder later and stormy

December: wet and stormy month. Some colder weather later with wintry precipitation.

Most of all, hopefully this Covid crap will be over soon! Merry Christmas  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

trickier this year

Jan, milder than average, but settled with very little rain during lockdown 3, outside lockdown (if we're lucky) then very wet, few 'named' storms, possible flooding

Feb, very similar, drier than average during national lockdowns, temps milder than average, otherwise if lockdown free, then relentless Atlantic zonal train

Mar, dry if lockdown early in month, otherwise quite wet, but signs of Atlantic train derailing towards the end

Apr, lockdown free, mostly northerly and easterly winds, sunniest in W Scotland, hopefully signs of a warm up later

May, mostly winds from north or east, driest in north, wettest south

June, mostly low pressure in charge, possible plume, thundery if lucky, probably slightly cooler than average

July, settled Wimbledon, then mostly westerlies to take over, wetter than average

Aug, low pressure to dominate, winds mostly from W or NW, cooler/wetter than average

Sep, would guess the most settled month of summer, perhaps higher pressure than Jun to Aug

Oct, mixed, sluggish Atlantic, not really dominating but may be wet at times, but average temps

Nov, Atlantic weak, signs of cold December as not really developed PV, looks very good upstream, not looking zonal at all, Russian high

Dec, Atlantic dominated, many named storms, flooding and gale damage, like 2015 but cooler

[Zak M]

January and February - mainly cold and snowy (especially first half of Jan) but with a few mild interludes

March - Very dry with above average temps

April - Wet and windy, with below-average temperatures and April showers galore

May - Mixed with unsettled periods and periods of warm/hot weather, with storms mid-month

June - The driest and hottest month of them all, with very little rain and the highest temperature of the year recorded (35.5c)

July - Another hot month but also with severe thunderstorms - the most thundery July in the past 5 years

August and September - Mainly wet and windy for the whole month

October - Colder than average temps, with snow over higher ground

November and December - Mainly mild and zonal

Edited December 12, 2020 by Zak M

[Northwest NI]

General doom and gloom.

[lassie23]

Covid gets sorted by August only to be replaced by the zombie apocalypse virus, as for the weather, hot summer boring winter.

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

General doom and gloom.

At least I had some snow for areas of the UK amd some supercellular storms. 

[BruenSryan]

Very random predictions.. probably 0% success rate but here we go. 

January - Relatively mild and changeable. Cooler conditions later on but nothing notable. CET 5.1C

February - Mild start, cooler end. Much drier than 2020. CET 4.3C

March - Cold with a lot of cloud and wet to the south of the country. CET 5.6C

April - Very wet with average temperatures, cool first half before a somewhat milder second half. CET 8.3C

May - Quite westerly with a fair bit of cloud and rain. Chance of some early warmth later on in the month. CET 10.5C

June - Fairly dry but often cloudy with mild nights. CET 13.9C

July - Warm and wet with numerous threats of downpours or storms. Winds from a southeasterly quarter. CET 17.8C

August - Changeable but nothing dramatic. CET 16.9C

September - Very warm September with summer heat near the beginning. Turning more autumnal later on but staying mild. CET 15.9C

October - Another really mild month with mainly unsettled conditions dominant. CET 12.7C 

November - The mild autumn continues with a typical Atlantic driven November. CET 7.9C

December - Average temperatures and foggy at times later in the month after an unsettled start. CET 4.6C

I do hope many of these are wrong especially spring. After the exceptional spring of 2020, I just feel nature will punish us with either a very benign season or a really poor one. Haven't had a really poor one for a while either especially May. 

[Simon M]

January and February both mild, wet and stormy with the Atlantic fully in charge.

 

March will see some drier and at times chillier weather.  Perhaps even some snow in parts.

 

April will be warm and sunny, much drier than average.

 

May will be warm and humid, thundery at times much like in 2018.

 

June will be dry and warm.

 

July will be hot and dry, thundery at times.

 

August will be warm and very wet, almost tropical at times with widespread thunder.

 

September starts much like August, settles down later and a little cooler.

 

October will be dry and foggy at first, unsettled and windy later.

 

November dominated by the Atlantic.  Stormy at times and often very mild.

 

December a continuation of November, very mild and wet, potentially rivalling December 2015 in rainfall and warmth.

[LetItSnow!]

My predictions for 2021

 

January: Cold & blocked in the first-half, our severest spell of cold since 2018. Less cold second half but still seasonably chilly & wintry spells.
 

February: Very anticyclonic month with a fair share of frost & fog at times. Overall very sunny & dry, the driest since 2012.
 

March: Very wet but rather cool due to a southerly tracking jet stream, so some cold & snow returning. Very dull.
 

April: Quite non-descript. Quite a lot of low pressure & westerly winds bringing sunshine & April showers. Rather cool at times.
 

May: One of the wettest Mays on record, consequently rather dull & cool too.
 

June: A month of two halves; continuing cool, dull and unsettled but later turning warmer and drier. A hot end.

 

July: Hot start, but turning progressively cooler, like 2015. A very thundery month. 

 

August: Thoroughly cool & unsettled with low pressure the dominant feature. Probably the “worst” August since 2014. Very dull & wet  

 

September: Turning drier but rather chilly under high pressure at times, similar to 2015. Quite a sunny month but dry  

 

October: Quite unsettled at times with temperatures close to average. Very standard October.

 

November: Similar to October, very cyclonic but with temperatures very close to average  

 

December: A cold spell in the first half, then becoming anticyclonic & less cold.

 

The year as a whole: The coldest year since 2013, perhaps 2010, but unlikely. Close to the long term average but ending a run of warm years since 2014 & starting the trend of cooler years, akin to 2008. Very wet year, the wettest since 2012 & one of the wettest of the century so far. Dull too. 

 

How would everyone feel about a year like that!?

[Met.]

January: Cool and extremely cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

February: Cool and excessively cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

March: Cool and mostly cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

April: Cool and highly cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

May: Cool and unusually cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

June: Cool and somewhat cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

July: Cool and a bit cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

August: Cool and rather cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

September: Cool and totally cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

October: Cool and particularly cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

November: Cool and cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

December: Cool and very cloudy, with intermittent drizzle.

[Daniel*]

Variations in moistness and crapness.

[BruenSryan]

23 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Very random predictions.. probably 0% success rate but here we go. 

January - Relatively mild and changeable. Cooler conditions later on but nothing notable. CET 5.1C

February - Mild start, cooler end. Much drier than 2020. CET 4.3C

March - Cold with a lot of cloud and wet to the south of the country. CET 5.6C

April - Very wet with average temperatures, cool first half before a somewhat milder second half. CET 8.3C

May - Quite westerly with a fair bit of cloud and rain. Chance of some early warmth later on in the month. CET 10.5C

June - Fairly dry but often cloudy with mild nights. CET 13.9C

July - Warm and wet with numerous threats of downpours or storms. Winds from a southeasterly quarter. CET 17.8C

August - Changeable but nothing dramatic. CET 16.9C

September - Very warm September with summer heat near the beginning. Turning more autumnal later on but staying mild. CET 15.9C

October - Another really mild month with mainly unsettled conditions dominant. CET 12.7C 

November - The mild autumn continues with a typical Atlantic driven November. CET 7.9C

December - Average temperatures and foggy at times later in the month after an unsettled start. CET 4.6C

I do hope many of these are wrong especially spring. After the exceptional spring of 2020, I just feel nature will punish us with either a very benign season or a really poor one. Haven't had a really poor one for a while either especially May. 

Oh yeah forgot to add, another poor October for the October fog index 

[Lettucing Gutted]

2021 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET and both COVID-19 and COVID-20 will be there as well and all the attendant lockdown misery through it all.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "polar weakstream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "subtropical weakstream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "subtropical weakstream" merges with the last "polar weakstream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weakstream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.  I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2021 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates.  Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5C

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2021 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming. 

[Sunny76]

A colder start to the year. An average summer, with a warm sunny June, and early July, but a poor August overall.

Janaury : overall quite cold, with a mild middle, but a very cold snowy period between the new year and 10th, and a cold end.

Feb : quite average overall, with a cold start. Cloudier than usual, with the last few days dry cold and sunny.

March : Another dry month, but a cold one. A wet and windy spell mid month, and some springlike weather the last few days.

April : slightly warmer than average, with a warm sunny start, but with cold mornings and evenings. A cool damp wet spell mid month, with a thundery spell towards the end, as temps start to warm up.

May : a stinker month, and overall colder than average. It will be cloudier than normal, and the first two weeks will be very dull and cool. Temps will increases after the 15th, and a sunny warm spell with set in. It will turn hot before the end, with some widespread thunderstorms.

June : warm and sunny, with long warm and sometimes hot weather. 30c will be reached and topped a few times this month. London and the south east will have some very warm and humid nights, and it will be sunnier than normal.

July: good first half, poor second half, and more thunderstorms breaking out quite frequently. Average temps.

August: a warm sunny start, with some hot days, but after the 10th, more wet and cooler weather mixed with thunderstorms will dominate. Overall a slightly cooler than normal month.

September: a warm sunny month. After a mediocre summer, this will be the best month after June. Slightly warmer than average, and quite dry. Some cool nights in the second half.

October: mild and wet, with some cold dry sunny days. 
 

November: very mild, wet and windy. Duller than normal. 
 

December: a month of two halves, sunnier than normal, with a cold frosty first half, and a mild cloudy second half. A damp cloudy but dry Christmas period. 10-12c Christmas Day, so on the average to mild side. 

[B87]

Estimated max/min, rainfall and sun hours for London. Another warm April, a cold March and December. August will fail with sunshine yet again.

Overall very close to the new 1991-2020 average.

Jan: 9c/4c, 60mm, 50 hrs

Feb: 10c/2c, 20mm, 90 hrs

Mar: 10c/4c, 60mm, 100 hrs

Apr: 17c/6c, 10mm, 220 hrs

May: 19c/9c, 50mm, 200 hrs

Jun: 22c/13c, 60mm, 190 hrs

Jul: 25c/15c, 20mm, 200 hrs

Aug: 23c/13c, 30mm, 170 hrs

Sep: 21c/12c, 30mm, 160 hrs

Oct: 15c/10c, 90mm, 90 hrs

Nov: 13c/7c, 80mm, 50 hrs

Dec: 7c/2c, 30mm, 70 hrs

Edited December 22, 2020 by B87

[ChannelThunder]

January: A chilly start, wintry showers for nearly all and a few lows sinking down from the NW and getting stuck over the UK. HP then asserts enough control to give another period like November 2020 where it's misty and dull and not a lot happens.

February: Something of a repeat of 2020, with a couple of named storms swinging between the UK and Iceland, but otherwise benign.

March: Chillier than usual with an easterly wind that gets stuck for a while. Snow flurries in the east and drizzle for most of us.

April: A wet start but like in many recent years, a taste of summer comes along and dries everything out.

May: Similar but not identical to 2018: LP gets stuck in Biscay giving some nice thunderstorms for Wales and the midlands, with us in the south missing out on them once again.

June: A nice summery month, dry. A couple of hot spells 

July: Disappointing for heatwave lovers but pleasant in the south, a classic NW/SE divide kicks in

August: Wet, but again, in line with global warming and summers of late, a 3-day furnace results in a 38C once again being recorded in Cambridgeshire.

September: A late summer beckons again, dry and pleasant.

October: Above average temperatures, 23C is had in the last week

November: The jet stream gets stuck and a succession of low pressure systems makes for a very wet month, but mild.

December: Wet start, a frosty middle but the rain is back for Christmas.

 

The main takeaway given my primary interests will be the disappointing period for Thunderstorms for the south coast continuing for another year
 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

JAN.  cold and unsettled. Floods

FEB.  Very wet and very cold. Snow event around the 12th

MAR. Stormy and wet. Nothing spring like

APR. Becoming dryer and warmer.

MAY. Hot plumey month. 31C on the 23rd. 

JUN.  "More runs needed", "its in FI so ill believe it when its 5 days away"

JUL. "more runs needed", "Lets see what ecm says"

AUG.  Disaster of a month. Floods floods floods and more floods. 37.2c at heathrow on the 21st

SEP. As covid restrictions come into force so does summer. Hot and dry month. monthly 16.8c CET

OCT. heatwave month. Plumey and Humid. Temps in the low to mid 20s most of the month

NOV and DEC. Mild, wet and windy. Rounding up another boring year in weather.

 

 

 

[Deep Snow please]

January, February, March - Absolutely freezing, snow most of the month, daytime maxes well below freezing. 

April, May - prolonged unseanable heatwave with day time maxes well above 35C

June, July - mild  and wet, regularly storms, high winds, flooding, 

August, September - return to heatwave conditions on par with April and May. 

October - wet and rainy. Very stormy. 

November, December - day time maxes below freezing, heavy blizzards continously. 

[B87]

On 22/12/2020 at 16:42, B87 said:

Jan: 9c/4c, 60mm, 50 hrs

This one is looking bad already. Far too mild and far too sunny (even though 50 hours is below normal).

Updated for the rest of the year...

Feb: cooler, drier, cloudier

Mar: cooler, wetter, cloudier

Apr: avg temp, wetter, cloudier

May: cooler, wetter, cloudier

Jun: warmer, drier, cloudier

Jul: warmer, drier, cloudier

Aug: cooler, wetter, cloudier

Sep: warmer, drier, cloudier

Oct: avg temp, drier, cloudier

Nov: avg temp, wetter, cloudier

Dec: cooler, wetter, cloudier

[CheesepuffScott]

Statistic predictions based on London..

February: cold dry period like the start of this month. Some snow mid month but quite marginal for the south... Atlantic dominating much more later on. 9C/2C, 71mm, 70hrs

March: cool, wet and stormy. Sharp warm spell end of month. 11C/4C, 88mm, 95hrs

April: a slack pattern with sunshine and showers dominating first half, temperatures around average. Warmer and drier 2nd half. 15C/6C, 48mm, 152hrs

May: Dull but rather dry, WSW winds dominating, temperatures around average. Hot spell with thunderstorms in the south final week... 19C/9C, 22mm, 157hrs

June: Dry with temperatures around average, but quite cloudy. Hot and humid towards the end of the month. 21C/12C, 38mm, 176hrs

July: Hot and humid start gives way to a more average, but relatively sunny regime. Turning cooler and wetter at the end of the month. 24C/14C, 66mm, 218hrs

August: Wet, windy and quite autumnal to start the month but warm after the first week with some southerly incursions. 23C/15C, 45mm, 206hrs

September: Very warm start with a general southerly flow. Cooler and more changeable from mid month especially for the north and west, but brief warmer spells for the south and east. 21C/13C, 40mm, 225hrs

October: cool and cloudy start. Very warm and humid mid-month, and a stormy final 3rd courtesy of Atlantic depressions, with some muggy nights in the mid-high teens in S. 17C/10C, 79mm, 117hrs

November: stormy regime to continue but from a cooler source... turning drier mid month but staying dull. 11C/3C, 65mm, 64hrs

December: benign start for most, but wet and windy weather encroaching the NW, spreading to all areas mid month. Settling down for the Christmas period with cold, dry and frosty conditions for most. 9C/3C, 77mm, 73hrs

Edited January 18, 2021 by CheesepuffScott

[LetItSnow!]

On 12/12/2020 at 21:07, LetItSnow! said:

My predictions for 2021

 

January: Cold & blocked in the first-half, our severest spell of cold since 2018. Less cold second half but still seasonably chilly & wintry spells.
 

February: Very anticyclonic month with a fair share of frost & fog at times. Overall very sunny & dry, the driest since 2012.
 

March: Very wet but rather cool due to a southerly tracking jet stream, so some cold & snow returning. Very dull.
 

April: Quite non-descript. Quite a lot of low pressure & westerly winds bringing sunshine & April showers. Rather cool at times.
 

May: One of the wettest Mays on record, consequently rather dull & cool too.
 

June: A month of two halves; continuing cool, dull and unsettled but later turning warmer and drier. A hot end.

 

July: Hot start, but turning progressively cooler, like 2015. A very thundery month. 

 

August: Thoroughly cool & unsettled with low pressure the dominant feature. Probably the “worst” August since 2014. Very dull & wet  

 

September: Turning drier but rather chilly under high pressure at times, similar to 2015. Quite a sunny month but dry  

 

October: Quite unsettled at times with temperatures close to average. Very standard October.

 

November: Similar to October, very cyclonic but with temperatures very close to average  

 

December: A cold spell in the first half, then becoming anticyclonic & less cold.

 

The year as a whole: The coldest year since 2013, perhaps 2010, but unlikely. Close to the long term average but ending a run of warm years since 2014 & starting the trend of cooler years, akin to 2008. Very wet year, the wettest since 2012 & one of the wettest of the century so far. Dull too. 

 

How would everyone feel about a year like that!?

January looking to be a fairly good prediction from me at the moment, though an obvious overestimation of the cold potential.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by LetItSnow!

[B87]

12 hours ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Statistic predictions based on London..

August: Wet, windy and quite autumnal to start the month but warm after the first week with some southerly incursions. 23C/15C, 45mm, 206hrs

September: Very warm start with a general southerly flow. Cooler and more changeable from mid month especially for the north and west, but brief warmer spells for the south and east. 21C/13C, 40mm, 225hrs

Wow, a slightly sunnier than average August and the sunniest September on record. Very brave predictions!

I made a wiki box for my updated prediction.

January: the month continues as it has done, with below average temperatures and barely any sun. The month takes the title of cloudiest January on record.
February: continues where January left off. A heavy snow event in the first week brings 15cm to London, but the skies remain mostly grey. When the sky does clear, minima crash to -7c.
March: yet more of the same; cold both day and night with frequent rain and barely any sun or signs of spring.
April: no sun recorded for the first 15 days of the month, accompanied by rainfall and cool temps. The 2nd half brings almost unbroken sunshine with temperatures frequently around 20c.
May: mostly warm, dry with partly cloudy skies. A brief heatwave late in the month produces the first 30c in May since 2005.
June: continues where May left off; mostly sunny skies and temps above 30c in the first few days. The 2nd half of the month is frequently cloudy and cool.
July: A mix of partly and mostly cloudy skies and average temperatures. A plume event mid-month peaks at 35c, but the end of the month is cool, cloudy and dry.
August: very cool, cloudy and dry for the first 3 weeks. The final week is warm with unbroken sunshine, and produces the first above average day of the month.
September: continues warm and sunny as August left off. A 2nd plume brings 30c and some thunderstorms, but the month closes mostly fine and settled.
October: the UK is repeatedly battered by the remains of Atlantic hurricanes. The month is characterised by almost non-stop rainfall and cloud, becoming the wettest month ever recorded.
November: another very mild, wet and cloudy month.
December: frequent winter storms bring plenty of rain, but also allow for the sun to appear in between. A mild and wet month with near average sunshine.

[CheesepuffScott]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

Wow, a slightly sunnier than average August and the sunniest September on record. Very brave predictions!

Therefore they will be even duller than usual!