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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Am I missing something. What’s interesting a toppling ridge? 

    @Daniel*the happiest guy on this Forum.

     

    15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.e47796ee87bb4329e646ec2df0b064fb.png

    Well now....that's interesting!

    You never know what could happen with these.

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    Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

    Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

    Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    It ain't toppling while there are low heights over Genoa 

    Ah I got confused I thought those were 3 clusters for same time period. This does look very good for longevity but a lot to happen before we get there.  
     

    BB0AA8C4-2459-4A2B-91E1-9530D0829E06.thumb.png.4749a4d62f6063019d675d5f2e72e8e9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    Ah I got confused I thought those were 3 clusters for same time period. This does look very good for longevity but a lot to happen before we get there.  
     

    BB0AA8C4-2459-4A2B-91E1-9530D0829E06.thumb.png.4749a4d62f6063019d675d5f2e72e8e9.png

    Looking blocked still - Atlantic and Scandi/Ural high linkup there....anything better than +NAO zonal!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Last chance to dust off the Barbie?

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    But, don't forget these. Who remembers them? image.png.977bdfc28a2eda79723ba9c8b75878e0.png Real retro cool, eh?👀

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Not Sure what the Gefs Has been Drinking,

    image.thumb.png.cbfe06d6b192e28aef781f5635dccac1.png

    because at T+384

    image.thumb.png.e21d3e6ac56abbf4050968d37946b20b.png

    It's got a Hangover.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Were they? Them ens look pretty unimpressive to me they did show it milder towards mid month but nowhere to this extent. We had synoptics which looked very good, but the cold air was severely lacking what you see on ground would disappoint. I’ve not once seen solid evidence of a proper cold spell this month, and still waiting. In the outlook the air which is potentially accessible is colder so I suppose that is more interesting.

    Getting the cold air cold is a start I suppose, you need the beast first if you want a Beast From The East!

    I see your point about the ens but I'm sure you'll agree with me that 'cold' spells (whatever setup) have and always will be on the back foot. A mild to very mild outlier means there is a well trodden route to that scenario which we are in now.

    Anyway, I'm going to give the model watching a rest for a few days as we go through this mild spell. Fingers crossed for something more interesting as we head into Christmas and New Year!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    4 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Not Sure what the Gefs Has been Drinking,

    image.thumb.png.cbfe06d6b192e28aef781f5635dccac1.png

    because at T+384

    image.thumb.png.e21d3e6ac56abbf4050968d37946b20b.png

    It's got a Hangover.

    These are two different ensemble members on two different days so I’m not sure how they’re related to each other.

    Edited by Frosty Winter
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Gfs ensembles better this morning it seems to have a pattern much like @Steve Murrone week one and then happy the next week sad we all know that there are many months left of Winter and the Charts are showing many deep lows.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    These are two different ensemble members on two different days so I’m not sure how they’re related to each other.

    just saying that you've got the happiness of drinking and then the hangover later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Looking blocked still - Atlantic and Scandi/Ural high linkup there....anything better than +NAO zonal!

    Don’t show that to Catacol then might get close to climax. 😳

    There is definitely something stirring in stratosphere as we near New Year GFS repeatedly going for a significant warming. Is that sparked off by +EAMT we’ve been hearing about? Seems to be region the warming sources from. 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    So far so good on 06z everything further south than 00z and cold uppers already heading south on 23rd ...that low to the south west could bring a dumping on the big day of the cards all fall right .

    0C7D8963-8F98-4DEC-BCCE-DE3BE2AE7787.png

    522CD440-00D9-424F-A4F0-CA8AF9877AF7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Lows are popping up all over the place.Surely one of the Atlantic lows at least will give us Snow.

    image.thumb.png.3c9f992acfe87b81fd0d935bc5abee8b.pngimage.png.b1043f3d37da7f2fd8c4157f8457020c.pngimage.thumb.png.fa8b961791f0c53744bc319091c80146.pngimage.thumb.png.1412755f8284b61ca41b3c4c996a23d2.pngimage.thumb.png.bd02a4d10e28594c24b996ae28908f5c.pngimage.thumb.png.a28551a76cd7b9e22931e702d556b83e.pngimage.thumb.png.55a3d1dac9e3e35306234c73ce1e1c19.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Think I preferred 00z  at 240. 06z Heights not as sharp into Greenland and where is that little low in the southern North Sea that might have introduced a little festive weather on Christmas Eve..

    it’s not a bad chart.. but just looks a little more flabby upstream?
    image.thumb.png.bcf2acee13c9bb9f437c9367643d8fa5.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Lows are popping up all over the place.Surely one of the Atlantic lows at least will give us Snow.

    image.thumb.png.3c9f992acfe87b81fd0d935bc5abee8b.pngimage.png.b1043f3d37da7f2fd8c4157f8457020c.pngimage.thumb.png.fa8b961791f0c53744bc319091c80146.pngimage.thumb.png.1412755f8284b61ca41b3c4c996a23d2.pngimage.thumb.png.bd02a4d10e28594c24b996ae28908f5c.pngimage.thumb.png.a28551a76cd7b9e22931e702d556b83e.pngimage.thumb.png.55a3d1dac9e3e35306234c73ce1e1c19.png

    image.png

    Just to avoid confusing people, worth saying these are from the 00Z run not  the 06z GEFS which has yet to come out at this range 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    38 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Thanks any tips on reading into charts such as these

     image.thumb.png.f53346e4693c79ae8def14a61a5b1405.png

    and wether it contributes much.

     

    Hi, there are now 30 GEFS ensemble members in addition to the control and operational runs that are each run 4 times a day at a lower resolution. The idea of of the ensembles is to look for trends going forward as you cannot rely on the operational run on its own. Therefore, each ensemble member in itself is fairly irrelevant, especially in the extended range, and so you’re better off looking for patterns rather than posting random perturbations at random time periods as they don’t explain much at all on their own. It’s stuff that you’ll get the hang of soon though.😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Think I preferred 00z  at 240. 06z Heights not as sharp into Greenland and where is that little low in the southern North Sea that might have introduced a little festive weather on Christmas Eve..

    it’s not a bad chart.. but just looks a little more flabby upstream?
    image.thumb.png.bcf2acee13c9bb9f437c9367643d8fa5.png

     

    Imo the block is better has a more durable look to it - it’s higher pressure to south which is a drawback. 

     

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Gfs 00z Run throwing lows at us, a great Atlantic low it's looking like will happen towards the end of the year possibly.But of course it's too far out.

    image.thumb.png.a2b31f08ee2428c309b45c69357d5c4c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Another run and another solution. This time the Azores low cuts-off and meanders around that region, whereas the 0z it joined the trough:

    06z> gfseu-0-258.thumb.png.bd8e6be92dd1673b1311b6f0f21ebf0e.png 0z> gfseu-0-264.thumb.png.b05ce18f1724c49a239f7a1a50e2033f.png

    The net effect is to push the pattern east as the Iberian plume is given more weight. A quiet cold Xmas day on this run:

    gfseu-1-270.thumb.png.557ba08d6db226b33c38ae23bf58dd96.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Think I preferred 00z  at 240. 06z Heights not as sharp into Greenland and where is that little low in the southern North Sea that might have introduced a little festive weather on Christmas Eve..

    it’s not a bad chart.. but just looks a little more flabby upstream?
    image.thumb.png.bcf2acee13c9bb9f437c9367643d8fa5.png

     

    Although I will add that as we move forward 24 hours the heights to our west and north west look more robust..also a low to our south west when before we had azore heights creeping.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    Just now, TSNWK said:

    Although I will add that as we move forward 24 hours the heights to our west and north west look more robust..also a low to our south west when before we had azore heights creeping.

     

     

    image.thumb.png.bfb7b031db9cc3c995384aad6801d43a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Maybe not very exciting but that would be a festive Xmas the closest to white ground would probably be from frost. 

    EB45DFE3-5E87-44C8-AE20-819CF7869AE7.thumb.png.a514c06e6687755cdf41a133db1bd2b0.png8D4A1F5E-2209-4ECD-AF27-A3D5BE70691F.thumb.png.1ab0fe97fed21d7f49144b095be65dde.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    15 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It is a stonker if you like Hurricane force winds.

    I love them

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Maybe not very exciting but that would be a festive Xmas the closest to white ground would probably be from frost. 

    EB45DFE3-5E87-44C8-AE20-819CF7869AE7.thumb.png.a514c06e6687755cdf41a133db1bd2b0.png8D4A1F5E-2209-4ECD-AF27-A3D5BE70691F.thumb.png.1ab0fe97fed21d7f49144b095be65dde.png

    Actually a bit colder than I had imagined when viewing just the NHL’s Synoptics. In summary of 06z looks more minded to extend any cold or chill with those slight stronger heights out west.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    11 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Gfs 00z Run throwing lows at us, a great Atlantic low it's looking like will happen towards the end of the year possibly.But of course it's too far out.

    image.thumb.png.a2b31f08ee2428c309b45c69357d5c4c.png

    Can you stop posting random charts from random ensembles?

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