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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Thanks Ed. I appreciate them words! Not bad for someone with Dixlexia haha! I think the condition makes me even more aware of writing for all level of readers 

    I’m going to chip in on the Scott appreciation society 😁

    It’s actually quite a skill Scott and surprisingly few people have it.

    I’ve always had a pretty firm grip on teleconnections but getting things out of my head and laid out clearly and most importantly,  concisely is not easy at all. Good stuff.

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    Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

    Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

    Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Christmas Eve morning on the Control...... yes please!

    image.thumb.png.cb01e5e467d2c7fbc941423edc654453.png

    This run is setting up for a terrific FI - Yep, I've jinxed it.

    Edit - The mean for the same time is excellent

    image.thumb.png.ea417580521cc6ee2369de6837a3b673.png

     

    Edited by Ice Day
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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

    Christmas Eve morning on the Control...... yes please!

    image.thumb.png.cb01e5e467d2c7fbc941423edc654453.png

    This run is setting up for a terrific FI - Yep, I've jinxed it.

     

    Very nice but...... Will it verify 🤔🤔

    Let's not Jinx it 🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    Very nice but...... Will it verify 🤔🤔

     

    Absolutely, unequivocally, no!  But still, it's rather nice to look at before bed! Control at 276 is an absolute beaut.

    image.thumb.png.cc13bd36ee963fdfab52c97646c336a2.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Was just chilling out to a dracula film,when boom those 18z ens smack me right in the eye...some barn stormers for Xmas day.. Thats me done for tonight im gerrin overly hyped 🤩🥱

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    gens-17-0-288.png

    tenor.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    The Op was one of a cluster of around 25% of milder runs, imagine if it had shown P28 instead.

    gensnh-28-1-324.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    graphe3_1000_260_76___.gif

     

    The graph shows the Op was on the milder side with -5 line now just being tickled on Xmas day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    It’s a pleasing trend 00z/06z/12z/18z each new ensemble suite the mean has lowered and gone further with colder outcomes In time for Xmas. That should inspire some confidence.

    BB674F9E-69F0-43DD-887A-4CDB154687BF.thumb.gif.dd5a4babc6602853115cb46c49335420.gifB8826FDB-87C4-482E-87A4-C95C4ADE0E72.thumb.gif.4b0b2a210cd4cab7a1fd050ae250f380.gif6542F77C-91A2-4E34-BDF5-DC381E0F8142.thumb.gif.d97d2f4726ddb598cbe4368edcb22369.gifA5D6F30A-DCFE-4D00-97B4-8EB24004DD84.thumb.gif.ff6d6330d50df939d97e2f494f8cfa7f.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    It’s a pleasing trend 00z/06z/12z/18z each new ensemble suite the mean has lowered and gone further with colder outcomes In time for Xmas. That should inspire some confidence.

    BB674F9E-69F0-43DD-887A-4CDB154687BF.thumb.gif.dd5a4babc6602853115cb46c49335420.gifB8826FDB-87C4-482E-87A4-C95C4ADE0E72.thumb.gif.4b0b2a210cd4cab7a1fd050ae250f380.gif6542F77C-91A2-4E34-BDF5-DC381E0F8142.thumb.gif.d97d2f4726ddb598cbe4368edcb22369.gifA5D6F30A-DCFE-4D00-97B4-8EB24004DD84.thumb.gif.ff6d6330d50df939d97e2f494f8cfa7f.gif

     

    The 18z ensembles are now resembling a genuine look you get for a cold spell. Actual clustering trying its best to slowly form round the -10 line 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    On 11/12/2020 at 01:12, Timmytour said:

    I still think there is some fallout from the direct Solar CME hit on earth to come and weather patterns will be disturbed for a little while before they settle down with a lot of model volatility until they do.

    That said, although things don't look great on the surface for the short term just at the moment, I think there can still be a lot of optimism about the building blocks that are falling into place, that could end up giving us, in the end, quite a spectacularly cold January and February.

    Just a shame it's January and February 2024.  Those darn building blocks are not the quickest! :)  

     

    Wow!   The change in mood over the weekend!   I didn't expect such a fallout from the CME!  :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Good Morning.

    GFS 00z Op much better than the 18z at day 10

    gfsnh-0-240.png

    Hopefully the ensembles will continue to firm up on this sort of outcome but we need ECM to come on board as well today.

    It turns out to be a toppler as the usual shortwave spoiler manages to squeeze through preventing WAA into Greenland proper but it is a close run thing and plenty of scope for improvement.

    gfsnh-0-258.png

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    25 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Good Morning.

    GFS 00z Op much better than the 18z at day 10

    gfsnh-0-240.png

    Hopefully the ensembles will continue to firm up on this sort of outcome but we need ECM to come on board as well today.

    It turns out to be a toppler as the usual shortwave spoiler manages to squeeze through preventing WAA into Greenland proper but it is a close run thing and plenty of scope for improvement.

    gfsnh-0-258.png

    Not a great GFS run to be honest...hoping to see a stonker at some point today, otherwise the feeling may be we won't see enough amplification once again to get a proper wintry blast.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS keeps the faith for a colder snap over Christmas ....

    Colder air filtering down from the 23rd..

    image.thumb.png.5a3ae5997e0de11854d1e5c0af17c5ad.png

    And Christmas Eve night looks cold for Santa...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    GFS keeps the faith for a colder snap over Christmas ....

    Colder air filtering down from the 23rd..

    image.thumb.png.5a3ae5997e0de11854d1e5c0af17c5ad.png

    And Christmas Eve night looks cold for Santa...

     

    Cold, but not snowy (except for a few E coastal areas) unfortunately

    I think we all want more than 3C maxima and a couple of overnight frosts 😄

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    Cold, but not snowy (except for a few E coastal areas) unfortunately

    I can live with cold and frosty 😊

    Hate wind and rain on Christmas eve/day/Boxing day...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Not a great GFS run to be honest...hoping to see a stonker at some point today, otherwise the feeling may be we won't see enough amplification once again to get a proper wintry blast.

    It is cold enough on the big day for a chance of snow, could be better, could be a lot worse.

    A lot will depend on peoples expectations, if they are expecting  a cold spell over Xmas with lying snow they will likely be disappointed but at least they currently have a much better chance than the average Xmas.

    There is going to be a fair bit of change yet either way so for now I'm just hoping the ensembles keep firming up on the amplification and some cold.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Aberdeen gets a white Christmas on GFS as a trough drops down in the colder flow..

    Of course semantics analysing a GFS op at that range but just highlighting its possible...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS ensemble 10 day mean still looking pretty good though suggests a toppler if taken at face value. (don't do that 🙃)

    gensnh-31-1-240.png

    But control run goes for W based neg NAO and the resulting Iberian ridge - nice WAA into Greenland though.

    gensnh-0-1-252.png

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Had a scan through all members and I’m seeing a lot of cold in there. Most have a transitory look to them but it looks to fall just right for big day. I like the look of P30.

    C4B1AD3F-5F7C-4916-B2AB-D256B98E74D9.thumb.png.4c980d0657ee1eac2f61e6c0c004431f.pngFB169B0F-E18C-44CD-A9AF-F046BB146FD4.thumb.png.0df89f310113eb0d45adab3391c6b3d1.png
     

    A few with cold high pressure

    572FD36A-CAA8-40E6-AE24-35F13EB4FC85.thumb.png.9dbc16683dac17e1eb1a3a2fc867291a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Big EC coming up for operation 'Save Santa' ...

    FWIW ukmo was very similar to last nights EC at 168 so a reasonable chance this mornings ukmo would go on to produce something colder for Christmas...

    Anything wintry doesn't look long lasting at this stage , Exeter hinting at a more zonal set up taking over later in the month so perhaps we are going to need some help from the background drivers ...

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Why didn't anyone show me yesterday's GFSP? 🤔 

    2139136671_gfsnh-0-300(2).thumb.png.aba9ebac35fd3c98872e9509c487800b.png

     

    More importantly this morning's gem says keep calm and carry on... 

    121599819_gemnh-0-144(7).thumb.png.b183f38c5ed2ad02448ddb4e615e9f43.png

    615908729_gemnh-0-240(5).thumb.png.ad0ff5aeb879d062fb041c203008ff14.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T144 for all 3. All looking ok for a seasonal feel over Christmas.😄 where we go from there? I don’t think anyone really knows.

    F446E27E-EDF9-4A5E-AA81-785C13B5CAA2.png

    C834E7A8-9121-4FD2-B8AA-DBC6AEE85D3F.gif

    9E796A9F-EB1A-4222-BFCE-FE42EC8D4CFA.png

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