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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
1 minute ago, Cold Winter said:

Quick reminder on how different one run to the next can be once you get past T144......

 

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Huge difference.. mid to long term range! but enabled by changes at 144 that have also been previously suggested by two UKMO runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

The 6z doesn’t phase the lows across the Atlantic at day 7 and thus we get a wedge of high pressure thrown up which is enough to thwart the Atlantic.

 

I know it’s out of a reliable timeframe but the building blocks with this wedge are appearing at day 7 now, hope this trend continues.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

............. i get that, but why?  i dont get why the more unreliable ops ignore the more reliable spreads and clusters..

My guess, Rob, would be that individual runs 'flap' around like sheets in the wind, in response to the slightest variations in the starting conditions... I think it's an artefact of chaos theory, but I can't prove it!

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

Incoming!! (Only T282, what could possibly go wrong?!? ) 

7092FA02-6520-445D-A5B6-D4EA0D33D814.jpeg

Edited by Cold Winter
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
25 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Incoming!!

 

7092FA02-6520-445D-A5B6-D4EA0D33D814.jpeg

Remember it's gfs shocking before 144 hrs

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Wait for it. “Looks dry”

“Uppers marginal along the coast”.

”Does this mean it’ll snow in Great Yarmouth at 3pm on 20th December?”

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

What a run!

D972BD26-7C61-4CC4-ADB0-776C3ADCAA55.png

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Not quite going to make it on this run as the secondary high pressure around Russia deflects the cold from reaching us.

All very positive moving forward though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, quite a major earth bound solar flare. Possible impact tomorrow or Thursday. Not good news at all. Really bad timing and solar activity has increased quite markedly over the last 2 to 3 weeks. From past experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NWP move away from any potential end of December cold by this coming weekend. We will then be looking into Jan. Still early days of course but I'm getting that slippery slope kind of feeling. 

As I understood it, the link between cold winters and solar minimum actually correlates with winters where we are just coming out of solar minimum and activity is starting to increase due to a lag effect?

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Here's comes the Siberian Express on 06z GFS, destination UK.

In all seriousness, surprised it's taken so long for an op to spin this in FI.

I'm happy to take on a few days of mild SW'lies if this is the path.

Would be nice Nick to have UKMO/ECM this evening start to fill that Atlantic Low next week and send its trough into the continent. Lets hope GFS is now onto something good  ,

C

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

A great run, and lift off is around day 8/9 so this isn’t deep FI. Let’s see what the ENS back up is like, could be a good day for a swing in the coldies direction!! 
What is good news is this latest run seems to follow the METO long range, low pressure slides south east leaving us drier but wintery showers - with a change of turning colder towards end of third week. The chance off it turning colder may be down to whether or not we tap into an Easterly!! 

6DAD5372-3E5F-4473-BC38-D063673C7494.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
9 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

“Uppers marginal along the coast”.

”Does this mean it’ll snow in Great Yarmouth at 3pm on 20th December?”

Huge warm sector over Malton apparently. 
 

A very positive 6z GFS, will be interesting to see if there’s any support for this evolution in the Ensembles. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

No beast as we move forward but this is a cold old setup - am I right in thinking this would lead to some very severe frosts in any clear spells - stagnant continental air??? 

0273136F-82A5-4D2A-805E-7E1BEE224B64.png

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No beast as we move forward but this is a cold old setup - am I right in thinking this would lead to some very severe frosts in any clear spells - stagnant continental air??? 

0273136F-82A5-4D2A-805E-7E1BEE224B64.png

Yes some very low minima in there. 

Subsequently the strat is heating up in this run. 

The 6z could finish with another Greenland push as that low skirts through and the Atlantic ridge reamplifies. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, quite a major earth bound solar flare. Possible impact tomorrow or Thursday. Not good news at all. Really bad timing and solar activity has increased quite markedly over the last 2 to 3 weeks. From past experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NWP move away from any potential end of December cold by this coming weekend. We will then be looking into Jan. Still early days of course but I'm getting that slippery slope kind of feeling. 

Can I just ask why a solar flare headed for Earth would scupper the chances of cold in the UK?

What would the mechanics be behind it?  Would it only affect cold chances in the UK / Europe or would it have more of an effect globally?

I only ask as we have enough to worry about here on Earth with ENSO QBO NAO MJO UKMO etc without worrying about UFOs as well?

That aside the 6z GFS looks very promising for a cold pattern to become established in the medium term! 

TIA

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The 06z Mean at 168 > the 00z 174 mean

Shows everything moving in the right direction at the right timeline

* Svalbard troughing better alligned

* Blocking more developed over Greenland

* Atlantic ridge better defined

 

Yes although we all know the 6z is the GFS run we least want on board if it's only one... (albeit the end of the 00z was also pretty splendid)

In general, there seem to be sufficient signs of a return to something blocked and non-zonal over Christmas that I'm quite confident of that. On the other hand, as illustrated by those ECM clusters above, I think the chances that a blocked easterly-ish scenario might be unusually mild/dry are unusually high...

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No beast as we move forward but this is a cold old setup - am I right in thinking this would lead to some very severe frosts in any clear spells - stagnant continental air??? 

0273136F-82A5-4D2A-805E-7E1BEE224B64.png

Drat... We fell at the last on this run but a great issue to have introduced by a great push in the mid term in favour of coldies. I say bank! 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

As I understood it, the link between cold winters and solar minimum actually correlates with winters where we are just coming out of solar minimum and activity is starting to increase due to a lag effect?

I have very limited knowledge to be honest. I am very interested though. Reading about sustained solar minimums in centuries gone by is what first piqued my interest on the subject. You may well be correct. I have just read a little more about the solar flare ejected this week and I am a little more comfortable with it as it is a C-Class flare so nothing too outlandish. Then again, I am a total novice. This is model related as it is directly related to zonal mobility, particularly in the atlantic. Any more learned members on here have any views on what (if any) impact this weeks flare might have in terms of the modelling?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Again double edged sword. That cut of low west of Ireland on one hand is causing potential link of WB -NAO with Arctic high while simultaneously pumping really warm air in to Continental Europe that is blocking away a potential trough to the east of that Arctic high. really frustrating

gens_panel_jxd9.png

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