Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Drifter]

Is it me or does ICON seem a bit more ‘blocky’ to the east than the other models?  Not sure if we’d get our northerly/north westerly from that model if it progressed further, but may get something later down the line from the north east instead?

 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Is it me or does ICON seem a bit more ‘blocky’ to the east than the other models?  Not sure if we’d get our northerly/north westerly from that model if it progressed further, but may get something later down the line from the north east instead?

 

Hello.. nope icon 180  posted  below is not nearly as blocky as GFS was at 180 this morning.. one hopes for better from GFS these next 60 mins. Pulls up chair.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

For me those ens are now showing a little more oomph to those cold pools.. I'm not getting that Friday feeling... But most definitely gerrin that Sunday feeling The door is a jar for Xmas and something wintry most definitely in with a shout.. 

Oh and a quick heads up from X met man Jon Hammond... He is stating that the vortex may be soon becoming critically weak, to the point of collapse, if so our chances of severe cold will be on the increase further into the season.. So our very own strat guys on here are most definitely on to something. 

Enjoy your Sunday roasts... Quality streets all around

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello.. nope icon 180  posted  below is not nearly as blocky as GFS was at 180 this morning.. one hopes for better from GFS these next 60 mins. Pulls up chair.

 

I was thinking that when I just looked.

[That ECM]

T144 Ukmo.

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T144 Ukmo.

Bowling Ball Low about to do a "strike" to the UK

[Jason M]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

In my opinion there's not enough amplitude in the wave to create a massive Greenland High. I don't see it being a prolonged spell I see a small high that becomes west based a few days later so my head tells me stop in MJO 6 for a bit longer and give us a SSW 4 weeks later for a proper spell. I get what you mean though lol but I bet you wished it did if we had a week of cold and a few flakes (the snow amounts part is only my opinion based on not injecting enough cold south) but that's certainly open to something more severe

Agree re west based solution. I was thinking exactly the same thing when I looked through the output this morning. A west based solution is well represented across the 06Z GEFS suite. I also wonder if the Iberian heights might prove harder to shift long term. 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Bowling Ball Low about to do a "strike" to the UK

Weakness as it approaches. 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 Ukmo.

Looks like that small low leaving America is the trigger for any change. Models haven't yet decided what it will do, but I think it's on all runs. So that's where we need to watch., Whether it heads into Europe, or northeast over us, seems to make a big difference.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Looks like that small low leaving America is the trigger for any change. Models haven't yet decided what it will do, but I think it's on all runs. So that's where we need to watch., Whether it heads into Europe, or northeast over us, seems to make a big difference.

I think the low has been modelled well on most runs. It’s later in the output where interest is imo.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Looks like that small low leaving America is the trigger for any change. Models haven't yet decided what it will do, but I think it's on all runs. So that's where we need to watch., Whether it heads into Europe, or northeast over us, seems to make a big difference.

It’s looks like it’s diffusing nicely, which to my understand is indication of split jet and maybe it will take the far more palatable route into Europe under us.

[Tim Bland]

12z Vs 06z doing a better job of digging south east? 

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO definitely more amplified than the gfs at 144...

 

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Agree re west based solution. I was thinking exactly the same thing when I looked through the output this morning. A west based solution is well represented across the 06Z GEFS suite. I also wonder if the Iberian heights might prove harder to shift long term. 

Yeah I think that would be the next progression. I think a west based Greenland High would follow a Greenland "wedge" I don't see Iberian Heights being a problem long term. I think the jet stream will be a long way south which could see us on the cold side of the jet potentially 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z Vs 06z doing a better job of digging south east? 

Maybe.. but I’m not warming to this run so far in that sense it seems a little flatter upsteam 180.. and we every inch! Of height we can get out west..

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Maybe.. but I’m not warming to this run so far in that sense it seems a little flatter upsteam 180.. and we every inch! Of height we can get out west..

I was thinking the opposite hey ho

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Maybe.. but I’m not warming to this run so far in that sense it seems a little flatter upsteam 180.. and we every inch! Of height we can get out west..

The amplification(on both the 06z,12z) comes in after that point TSNWK ,192>

Edited December 13, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

Here it comes, and quite a sharp edge to the WAA which is sometimes better - POSs leading to heights over by Scandy!! 

[Tim Bland]

Up she goes...Will that low west of Portugal help dampen that blasted Iberian High? 

[TSNWK]

This looks much better to north west steeper as Ali says.. now will you kindly scuttle of the south east please mr uk trough..

Edited December 13, 2020 by TSNWK

[Jason M]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The amplification comes in after that point TSNWK ,192>

But its worth noting that GFS (opp) resolution drops notably after 192 hours. That's one of the reasons why I generally use day 8 as my benchmark for giving any potential cold spell credence. If something survives through that 192 timestamp only then do I sit up and pay any real attention. Over the last couple of years nothing very cold has survived contact with that point and the wait goes on. IMHO though, the current position isn't hopeless by any means but I'm waiting to see if those Iberian heights clear or become sticky (as per recent years). If heights stay over Spain any cold weather of note can be dismissed. All to play for at the moment though.

[SLEETY]

Better than 06 run this,surely gfs hasnt nailed it in fl,seems to be good with Northerly outbreaks.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

But its worth noting that GFS (opp) resolution drops notably after 192 hours. That's one of the reasons why I generally use day 8 as my benchmark for giving any potential cold spell credence. If something survives through that 192 timestamp only then do I sit up and pay any real attention. Over the last couple of years nothing very cold has survived contact with that point and the wait goes on. IMHO though, the current position isn't hopeless by any means but I'm waiting to see if those Iberian heights clear or become sticky (as per recent years). If heights stay over Spain any cold weather of note can be dismissed. All to play for at the moment though.

2 years and 7 months ago it survived tho eh?

Edited December 13, 2020 by That ECM

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, Jason M said:

But its worth noting that GFS (opp) resolution drops notably after 192 hours. That's one of the reasons why I generally use day 8 as my benchmark for giving any potential cold spell credence. If something survives through that 192 timestamp only then do I sit up and pay any real attention. Over the last couple of years nothing very cold has survived contact with that point and the wait goes on. IMHO though, the current position isn't hopeless by any means but I'm waiting to see if those Iberian heights clear or become sticky (as per recent years). If heights stay over Spain any cold weather of note can be dismissed. All to play for at the moment though.

I was thinking the very same thing myself yesterday on gfs high and low res at 192 which it was notorious for a few years back., however for some reason I have this thought in my mind that it now runs at the same resolution throughout its whole run following an upgrade a year or two ago.

Edited December 13, 2020 by TSNWK

[Ali1977]

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