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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

What....snow over mountains and milder towards NY? Have I read the wrong thing?

I was just thinking the same thing?! It says any wintryness likely confined to higher ground then milder new year?

we seem to have gone from the PV shunted to the east to having it all to our North West..much harder to get cold from there 

F7677B94-FED1-43BB-8440-DDD709BD5CA9.png

34FA504E-5DFF-45D2-A6E4-8726FEA588A0.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Some suggestion of Scandi heights on day 8 mean curving up to Greenland wasn’t there on 06z.

72327469-61EC-47A8-8215-794BFC16B755.thumb.png.e281ac58b073a0268a4afbc6468c5e51.png78416F06-9890-47C4-876A-BB9D3A25C178.thumb.png.19841896b9061459366d7b50bac52ae7.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, georgiedre said:

High pressure over the North unsettled South could be wintry??

It just sounds like bog standard UK winter weather - it is always colder in the North. The only remotely interesting thing is the uncertainty, but at that timescale you could apply that to every forecast they make. 

Great to see Atlantic amplification, but I am not expecting wintry nirvana just yet.... the Atlantic still looks mobile enough to throw in spoiler shortwaves.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGEM 12 z @ 216 hrs

GEM 12z shows some good amplification for around 21st Dec. ( and would bring a cold North Westerly ). Will be interesting to see if ECM 12 z shows anything similar for day 9 later ( given that the ECM 0z looked quite promising earlier @ 240 hrs)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Some suggestion of Scandi heights on day 8 mean curving up to Greenland wasn’t there on 06z.

72327469-61EC-47A8-8215-794BFC16B755.thumb.png.e281ac58b073a0268a4afbc6468c5e51.png78416F06-9890-47C4-876A-BB9D3A25C178.thumb.png.19841896b9061459366d7b50bac52ae7.png

Yes that mean confirms my observation above.

Could be something or nothing but worth noting.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

No more Met Office or BBC update discussions in here please. If you want to see the BBC Monthly update posted by Summer Sun it's here. And the Met Off further outlook here. Thank you.

Edit: And previous posts discussing the update have been moved to the Moans & Chat thread.

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
BBC and Met O links clarified
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes that mean confirms my observation above.

Could be something or nothing but worth noting.

Quite a lot of them are more blocked than op I like the look of P17

7DE377D1-4700-471B-BC87-4844DD7ED4CB.thumb.png.517661d8f9e3ecd9d111c33c19a043b1.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Control looks good as does the mean, looking beyond Xmas is futile but I still think the U.K. might just get lucky around Xmas Eve, obviously high ground and up North favourable in a cold NW/N feed but you never know

766C0CF6-C5EC-43BB-8E0E-ABD6037C3932.png

84A78A4B-AB00-4B73-92BB-5FBBB21F1EE0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Certainly not the best or worst run, a nice low pressure 

image.thumb.png.29a34b4073d20cc7490532079010c2bb.png

Accompanied by some good ol'

image.thumb.png.27589d8721bd921b6f6a6ffd714fca86.png

Sleet. That's my Winter sorted.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
4 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

Certainly not the best or worst run, a nice low pressure 

image.thumb.png.29a34b4073d20cc7490532079010c2bb.png

Accompanied by some good ol'

image.thumb.png.27589d8721bd921b6f6a6ffd714fca86.png

Sleet. That's my Winter sorted.

Not having a dig here but you do realise there are 30 perturbations / ensembles that run alongside each run?  and they are generally less relatable than the op? You seem to post 1 or 2 ensembles each run but you don’t even pick the most interesting ? ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

Certainly not the best or worst run, a nice low pressure 

image.thumb.png.29a34b4073d20cc7490532079010c2bb.png

Accompanied by some good ol'

image.thumb.png.27589d8721bd921b6f6a6ffd714fca86.png

Sleet. That's my Winter sorted.

What do you actually mean by this?  The second chart is the (probabilistic) minimum of 2m temperatures at 1am?  It is not related to the P16 pressure chart at all, which is for 1pm.  I’m all for posting charts, but please could you explain what story you are trying to tell with them?  

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not having a dig here but you do realise there are 30 perturbations / ensembles that run alongside each run?  and they are generally less relatable than the op? You seem to post 1 or 2 ensembles each run but you don’t even pick the most interesting ? ??‍♂️

I don't have the time to look through all of them. 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What do you actually mean by this?  The second chart is the (probabilistic) minimum of 2m temperatures at 1am?  It is not related to the P16 pressure chart at all, which is for 1pm.  I’m all for posting charts, but please could you explain what story you are trying to tell with them?  

I'm just saying that sleet is the best chart that we've got. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Seems to be spiraling out of control on here atm, anyway 12zgfs control still touting an Atlantic ridge and a cool/cold set up in fi. Could do with a stronger push of Heighths but beggers can't be chooses

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, XanderP007 said:

I'm just saying that sleet is the best chart that we've got. 

No sleet on 21st that I can see, on any of the models, away from the Highlands of Scotland maybe. Anyway what’s so good about sleet?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

I don't have the time to look through all of them. 

Here you go, look at all of them at the same time.

F7F347C4-5234-4C09-838F-4E4DB44CD27F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
2 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

I'm just saying that sleet is the best chart that we've got. 

But if you went through all the ensemble runs you could find some with snow (the case in most winters).

I am all for enthusiastic posting, but it could be confusing for newbies. Perhaps use the ensemble graphs if you don't have time to view all runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Here you go, look at all of them at the same time.

F7F347C4-5234-4C09-838F-4E4DB44CD27F.png

I couldn't do that on Meteociel for some reason. 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No sleet on 21st that I can see, on any of the models, away from the Highlands of Scotland maybe. Anyway what’s so good about sleet?

Nothing it was a joke that i was happy about it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You seem to post 1 or 2 ensembles each run but you don’t even pick the most interesting ? ??‍♂️

I find that particular one interesting.. It doesn't necessarily have to show snow or sub-zero temperatures to get my interest.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
8 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

I don't have the time to look through all of them. 

Appreciate that, but posting one timestamp from a singular ensemble member nearly ten days away is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Appreciate that, but posting one timestamp from a singular ensemble member nearly ten days away is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.

I find them of much use, i use them in the Summer. 

Edited by XanderP007
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Away from the despair...... What a chart from the gfs control

gensnh-0-1-336.png

Yes it's built better than I thought. Anywhere near that would be fine. Is it me or is it like "one flew over the cuckoo's nest" on here this evening "

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