Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Methuselah]

And, just like the doctor (or, maybe the psychiatrist?) ordered, that Xmas Eve 1968 redux is back!

    

[Tim Bland]

Christmas Day

[Day 10]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

It does look somewhat promising for the north but because it's so far out I won't take notice of this 

Not a go a you here, the same should also apply then to a 3 month forecast of a positive NAO and winter is over. There should be a balance between the two otherwise people swing far too high & far too low something i used to do myself.

If things where so set in stone after day 10 then what is the point.

[chris55]

Trough into Scandi again in FI, if we can keep this consistent trend going we may be in business come Xmas. 
 

[SLEETY]

oh dear,the posters jacking it in yesterday and now the wintry charts are back on the Horizon .The ECM wasnt far off something mega either this morning.

Another bout of cold at the end of this gfs run looks possible too.

Edited December 12, 2020 by SLEETY

[IDO]

It is nice to see what a bit of upstream amplification can yield with the upcoming very good synoptic (Arctic high):

The Pacific high just oscillating and we get a sympathetic rise in the Atlantic and a few frames on:

Really is a great NH profile just lacking from forcing and of course we will need a bit of luck for any transient cold for a direct hit? As others have said, the mobility of the tPV will give room for ridging north though I doubt it will be blocking per se, just the ebb and flow...

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Not a go a you here, the same should also apply then to a 3 month forecast of a positive NAO and winter is over. There should be a balance between the two otherwise people swing far too high & far too low something i used to do myself.

If things where so set in stone after day 10 then what is the point.

True but there is a difference between micro analysis of a gfs op at day 12 and an ens model designed to make macro three monthly predictions 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

It is nice to see what a bit of upstream amplification can yield with the upcoming very good synoptic (Arctic high):

The Pacific high just oscillating and we get a sympathetic rise in the Atlantic and a few frames on:

Really is a great NH profile just lacking from forcing and of course we will need a bit of luck for any transient cold for a direct hit? As others have said, the mobility of the tPV will give room for ridging north though I doubt it will be blocking per se, just the ebb and flow...

Ebb and flow - yes IDO, it is but whilst that arctic high is there it could become something sustained ...... I think that’s the frustration 

[pureasthedriven]

35 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well after a pretty underwhelming few days of model watching, the 6z is showing some improvement.  Better around Greenland with cold approaching from the north east.  Nothing to get excited about yet, but at least it's something!

  

Definitely some allegiance with the MO’s overnighter, that chart. 

[Griff]

30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Bingo.   Can someone call Steve Murr and let him know he needs to come back!...

Best not just yet (in case he reads my rather sarcastic post this morning...), still no arguing with the mighty GEM though  

 

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Christmas Day

Tim don't put yourself down, your posts aren't bland at all, very interesting! 

 

On a nearly serious note, model watching is going to be exhausting if we take every run (the good as well as the bad) as gospel. 

My belief is that things can and will change very quickly and in all likelihood catch a lot of people off guard this winter. That said, equally I could be referring to very stormy or mild weather, but an exciting period of model watching. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Griff

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cold enough, but ppn only Scotland/NW England and Wales, Stockport cut off due to Irish sea streamer?

[West is Best]

5 hours ago, West is Best said:

I like that bowling ball metaphor. It's a good one. A case in point here:

 

Nevertheless, it's surprising to see 'winter's over' posts appearing on December 11th. Yes we are back to fairly full-bore Atlantic zonality (it certainly felt that way overnight here on the Cornish cliff-top) but even so it's far too soon for cold lovers to throw in the towel. I can recall two other occasions that Steve Murr declared a departure. One was a long time ago when a Bartlett High took up residence in southern France and he basically decided to come back in a month  The other was iirc in a November/December around 2004 again when a mucky high pressure settled over the UK.

The point is that when patterns are mobile there is more opportunity for change than if they are static. A resident HP over Southern Europe or Germany is about the worst outcome. We don't really have either at the moment.

Yes it's zonal. It could be pretty stormy at times and that can be a dramatic experience for amateur meteorologists. Perhaps, dare I say, just a little greater realism would be good. We live in the British Isles, warmed by the Gulf Stream and fed by the Jet which makes us much milder than would be the case at our latitude. Properly cold conditions here are rarer than hen's teeth, especially these days with climate change. That doesn't mean some cold sells are out of the question.

So, chins up folks.

 

I'm cheekily quoting myself because the 6z is a case in point where mobility can be a good thing. The storms showing up on the 16th, 20th and then 23rd pave the way for the north-westerly / northerly incursion just before Christmas:

 

Obviously that's in FI but it is quite extraordinary the number of times we get something around Christmas. I can remember two occasions of snow at Christmas in north Devon, relatively close to the coast.

I also would like to repeat the point about realism. I know that this isn't the Armageddon blocked scenario some wish to see (a la 1947 / 1962-3) but these types of cold incursion can still be potent even if they are more short-lived. I personally would take that any day over an arid high pressure.

Edited December 12, 2020 by West is Best

[Day 10]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

True but there is a difference between micro analysis of a gfs op at day 12 and an ens model designed to make macro three monthly predictions 

Yes I fully understand that, my point was i suppose more of people shouldn't discount anything really when weather is concerned. Granted, that particular day will not look exactly like that but it may well trend that way. The mid to longer term charts are there for a reason and not to be discounted, just like any other longer term forecast tool no matter what it is currently predicting.

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Day 10

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

I'm cheekily quoting myself because the 6z is a case in point where mobility can be a good thing. The storms showing up on the 16th, 20th and then 23rd pave the way for the north-westerly / northerly incursion just before Christmas:

 

Obviously that's in FI but it is quite extraordinary the number of times we get something around Christmas. I can remember two occasions of snow at Christmas in north Devon, relatively close to the coast.

I also would like to repeat the point about realism. I know that this isn't the Armageddon blocked scenario some wish to see (a la 1947 / 1961) but these types of cold incursion can still be potent even if they are more short-lived. I personally would take that any day over an arid high pressure.

Yes has you say dry frosty weather isn't my cup of tea altho neither is rampant rain lol. That said a active cool/cold mobile set up is a better option ie chances of snow if there is no blocking in the areas needed. 

[swfc]

The control on 6z is at it again ie Atlantic ridging and cold flow be it fi. Very pleasing start to the day overall

Edited December 12, 2020 by swfc

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

I'm cheekily quoting myself because the 6z is a case in point where mobility can be a good thing. The storms showing up on the 16th, 20th and then 23rd pave the way for the north-westerly / northerly incursion just before Christmas:

 

Obviously that's in FI but it is quite extraordinary the number of times we get something around Christmas. I can remember two occasions of snow at Christmas in north Devon, relatively close to the coast.

I also would like to repeat the point about realism. I know that this isn't the Armageddon blocked scenario some wish to see (a la 1947 / 1962-3) but these types of cold incursion can still be potent even if they are more short-lived. I personally would take that any day over an arid high pressure.

It's obvious, the person who created the GFS was a bookie lol.

[Eagle Eye]

A cheecky little low there swinging by for a bit hope it doesn't mess the house up, i don't want to tidy 2 days before christmas.

For Christmas day looking like for the first tme the east will have a better chance than the west.

That's an anomaly and a half.

Even bigger anomaly earlier for the north,

okay this could mean a lower temperature christmas but look at the south of France, -4oc and -40oc together, that must be a typo or do the alps go vertically up or something.

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by XanderP007

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Fair play for sticking with your prediction. I can see a small chance for a northerly turning to a transient easterly (1-2 days) as per a few of the ensembles posted above. I’m afraid I still can’t see a beast from the east (this month) though.   I would expect most people to define this as at least 5 days of an easterly flow wiith sno showers lacking in from the east and lows undercutting from the west. Let’s hope the models start showing some interest soon! 

Thank you Tim, agree re true beast.  But I’m happy with what’s still showing for last 1/3rd / week of December.   That timeline remains the focus.  GFS has been toying with this period since brought 22nd into it’s runs....that for me is interesting.  It is of cse still FI but I’m enjoying the model watching

 

BFTP 

[Frosty.]

Praise the lord this is still a hot topic..hallelujah!

[Northwest NI]

55 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

They say that something as significant as a Butterfly flapping it's wings could cause a snowstorm(okay Tornado but in Winter i suppose it could) 

The butterfly has just flapped it's wings. 

What the hell am I looking at.

[Ali1977]

Day 11 Op and Control not too far apart I guess, both showing some form of Northerly. 

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

A cheecky little low there swinging by for a bit hope it doesn't mess the house up, i don't want to tidy 2 days before christmas.

For Christmas day looking like for the first tme the east will have a better chance than the west.

That's an anomaly and a half.

Even bigger anomaly earlier for the north,

okay this could mean a lower temperature christmas but look at the south of France, -4oc and -40oc together, that must b a typo or do the alps go vertivally up or something.

 

Lol defo a typo I think.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Lol defo a typo I think.

yep

[Eagle Eye]

6 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

What the hell am I looking at.

the chart looked weird to me as well nothing i can do though. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by XanderP007

[Northwest NI]

3 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

 a few typos?

But imagine if it verified