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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Too much emotion enters this thread in my opinion, it’s rather silly to say things things are over with on December 11th I sense @chionomaniac post appears to be deflating. But concerning the tropospheric polar vortex there’s no sign of normality returning there anytime soon, and the disconnect remains as stratospheric vortex weakens, the Arctic high anomaly isn’t going anywhere fast, the longer it holds the better. Surprises always happen even in 2020 this winter is a tricky one more than most winters, remember all the seasonal models are all going with the North Pacific ridge including GloSea5 and well we have seen none of that so far, a typical La Niña component. Modelling isn’t interested in it either in future. We have to remember what we consider a La Niña pattern is made up of an average, there are always oddities on either sides, models make assumptions on averages. There’s no certainties in long range forecasting only uncertainty.

    E3A0E072-79B1-4D69-B49B-F397F15CAE17.thumb.png.89c18b4fe1bbc05f935c3b9bc0372065.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes Matt, and @chionomaniac, I am on the verge of calling time on this winter, and this is very unusual for me.  I would like to explain why.  

    It is the Met Office and their model, GloSea5.  If it predicts mild with certainty it has never been wrong, as far as i can see (going to back to since it was GloSea4).  Last year it was right, and the reason was Indian Ocean Dipole.  I had never even heard of it and it delivered and then some.  The only time GloSea5 has been totally wrong has been, yes you’ve guessed it, when it has forecast cold.  I think it was 2016/17 winter, all looking good and then winter over by about 7 Dec if I recall correctly, wasn’t posting at the time much, @CreweCold will remember, as he was quite vociferous about it.  

    I’m concerned about our hobby.  If UK winter can be predicted like this, what is the point?  It removes the rush when something unexpected happens.  Analogy to gambling.  I like gambling, it gives me a rush.  Around year 2000 i had inside info into certain pub fruit machines and could make a regular profit, and guess what it wasn’t much fun, if you know you are going to win or lose it takes away the experience.  

    I think that is half way to where we are with winter now, unfortunately, we now know if we haven’t got a cat in hells chance of a cold winter half the years, but we don’t know, in the other years, if we’ve got a chance, maybe, maybe not.  I’m sure GloSea7 will be soon able to close off that element of our uncertainty and fun and novelty of proper wintery weather.  When I was a child, to find it had snowed overnight and flakes still falling in the morning, it was magical.  Now, it hardly ever happens, and GloSea7 will tell you which day of which month you might next expect that unlikely event to happen.  

    All the best, Mike

    I get this Mike and the latest Seasonals are a kick in the teeth and likely to be correct but they absolutely can’t discount a shorter cold spell within the broader westerly pattern. Moreover, Glosea didn’t get the Feb 2018 BFTE event and ensuing blocked early Spring right.... image.thumb.png.7694da45dddbb32c38fba26afb120901.png

    **Disclaimer - it has sadly got most things right since, including this summer gone...

    However, there is no chance in the next decade that seasonal forecasting will be able to definitively tell you the weather on a particular day. Hell, the ECM can’t get day 9 right most of the time and how often is the 144 UKMO wrong? Seasonal forecasting is powerful in Winter and I imagine very useful for planners, government departments and gas distribution managers but they can’t and won’t be putting the remit of this thread out of business any time soon pal. 
     

    That said the picture for Jan / Feb has been grim on the seasonals since August hence mine and other hope to cash in on the blocked December. All eyes then on that MJO passage later this month, should that fail... there may be dragons ahead 😐

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Uncertainy said:

     

    However, there is no chance in the next decade that seasonal forecasting will be able to definitively tell you the weather on a particular day. Hell, the ECM can’t get day 9 right most of the time and how often is the 144 UKMO wrong? Seasonal forecasting is powerful in Winter and I imagine very useful for planners, government departments and gas distribution managers but they can’t and won’t be putting the remit of this thread out of business any time soon pal. 
     

    That said the picture for Jan / Feb has been grim on the seasonals since August hence mine and other hope to cash in on the blocked December. All eyes then on that MJO passage later this month, should that fail... there may be dragons ahead 😐

    Yes, of course, artistic licence in my post, to be sure!

    But seasonal forecasts in winter are actually getting quite good.  Not so summer.  Dragons ahead as you say: GFS 18z T192:

    C00B3455-8E5B-4427-B939-489B4990CB84.thumb.png.1c760e24113c507d54971cda148db633.png

    Can’t even see the UK under that!

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, of course, artistic licence in my post, to be sure!

    But seasonal forecasts in winter are actually getting quite good.  Not so summer.  Dragons ahead as you say: GFS 18z T192:

    C00B3455-8E5B-4427-B939-489B4990CB84.thumb.png.1c760e24113c507d54971cda148db633.png

    Can’t even see the UK under that!

    Good that means it's trying to move east, moving some of the EU block away. Would be better if it wasn't a bowling ball, and would slide south east though, but I can't see that happening now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    Just now, TSNWK said:

    Flatten again upstream.. never mind...

    goodnight

    image.thumb.png.ceaffbe1dae208a6a9f6362f9ccdcd28.png

    Let it develop, it’s different to the 12z....storming post t240 coming....and all is feasible still

     

     BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Never known this thread to be so downbeat on 11 December, and I've been following it for 15 years, the misery of 2020 truly taking over I feel this year more so than ever!  If continues, I may just shut off from it unfortunately, I did last February because it was such a doom monger of a place.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

     

     

    Sorry for copying blank post above, just a polite reminder if you want to call off chance of any cold weather this winter, please do so in the moan thread and not the model thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Despite the fairly Atlantic drivern setup on the models, I think it wouldn’t really take too much to at least squeeze in some kind of Northerly toppler or a North-Westerly flow for Christmas (but not impossible something more could happen). A Polar Maritime or Arctic Maritime flow with at least -7*C 850 hPa temperatures to bring wintry showers to places. Lower would be even better off course 😈 Would inject some festivity to things. 

    Some of this clearly providing that some of the High Pressure to our South-East over mainland Europe gets knocked out, so Lows can get sufficiently to the East of us to drag colder weather down between the West and North. No Azores High either trying to constantly ridge over to mainland Europe to prevent some of this cold reaching us. 

    I think it’s a reachable scenario, if nothing else really. Quite easy, even if transient, for a mid-Atlantic ridge to turn up for the Christmas period combined with downstream Scandinavian trough giving something cold from the North-West, North or perhaps North-East. And there’s always a bit of a possibility of a runner Low bringing a surprise marginal sleet or snow event over Southern UK.

    While the models can amplify the pressure patterns too much, it’s also not impossible for them to make things too flat. Just some reasons why that, although I feel somewhat doubtful at the moment of there being anything really cold and snowy, Christmas could easily pull off a bit of a white surprise ❄️

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Tidying up paragraphs
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Despite the fairly Atlantic drivern setup on the models, I think it wouldn’t really take too much to at least squeeze in some kind of Northerly toppler or a North-Westerly flow for Christmas (but not impossible something more could happen). A Polar Maritime or Arctic Maritime flow with at least -7*C 850 hPa temperatures to bring wintry showers to places. Lower would be even better off course 😈 Would inject some festivity to things. 

    Some of this clearly providing that some of the High Pressure to our South-East over mainland Europe gets knocked out, so Lows can get sufficiently to the East of us to drag colder weather down between the West and North. No Azores High either trying to constantly ridge over to mainland Europe to prevent some of this cold reaching us. 

    I think it’s a reachable scenario, if nothing else really. Quite easy, even if transient, for a mid-Atlantic ridge to turn up for the Christmas period combined with downstream Scandinavian trough giving something cold from the North-West, North or perhaps North-East. And there’s always a bit of a possibility of a runner Low bringing a surprise marginal sleet or snow event over Southern UK.

    While the models can amplify the pressure patterns too much, it’s also not impossible for them to make things too flat. Just some reasons why that, although I feel somewhat doubtful at the moment of there being anything really cold and snowy, Christmas could easily pull off a bit of a white surprise ❄️

    Agree, just a bit of sharpening of the trough will allow colder uppers to infiltrate from the NW, signs of this from the models, and some colder conditions at times as we approach christmas. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leuven, Belgium
  • Location: Leuven, Belgium

    image.thumb.png.41fb20c334d30442862603632d863ba0.pngSeems like a bit of nasty weather next saturday, lots of rain and wind...not really what we're after ☹️

    But I have a feeling some good 's gonna pop out at some point, hopefully before the new year...we deserve some winter after these crappy ones from the last 10 years 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Evening All -

    A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO continued to promote blocking out to day 6 however today the day 6 isnt really anything to like -

    So with a heavy heart im already bowing out of the model output for Winter.

    The time that I spend on here posting which is essentially a bit of 'me' time has slowly shrunk over the years to the point now where im on here when time is needed elsewhere with the kids & family.

    I may well post in the regionals at the prospects of snow are local but my times up.

    Stay safe.
    Love your familes. ❤️

    That's a shame, but I'm sure you'll be back when there is a prospect of cold weather within the 96 hr timeframe!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Evening All -

    A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO continued to promote blocking out to day 6 however today the day 6 isnt really anything to like -

    So with a heavy heart im already bowing out of the model output for Winter.

    The time that I spend on here posting which is essentially a bit of 'me' time has slowly shrunk over the years to the point now where im on here when time is needed elsewhere with the kids & family.

    I may well post in the regionals at the prospects of snow are local but my times up.

    Stay safe.
    Love your familes. ❤️

    Nice words Steve,the same to you and family...

    Chin up mate, we may see something more palatable turn up in the modelling and there is plenty of time for changes...

    But I'm not too different, getting cold to our shores in winter is becoming increasingly difficult it seems.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Milder Uk air being squeezed out from both sides. Scandi high developing? 

    C68B3DA8-5E4F-4E6A-AF56-10A81B75B9D0.png

    FBC00314-D251-4C3B-9768-2A5864D1B4A6.png

    Some good WAA now that would stir the pot, I think we could actually do with a real warm spell with a Euro ridge and mild southerlies, if we are to see some meaningful blocking which given Greenland area appears to become inhospitable as TPV moves back, Scandinavia is the place. I don’t see how we would be able to break out the limbo of cool low pressure with no proper blocking to really push jet south enough, so would rather get a move on from that ASAP.

    186DFB54-51DC-4B64-8330-4E776D052BB9.thumb.png.53c9ca34cefbe2b3ca3980ccc3824bb9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    I honestly can’t believe what I’m reading in here, yes ok it looks like some of the background signals have led us up the path again but they ent the be it and end all, there’s a lot more that goes on with the weather and it will continue to surprise us when it feels like not when the background decides. People giving up on winter on the 11th December when in reality it has hardly ever begun at this early stage. All it takes is for the low pressure to move a few hundred miles and we will be in the colder Northwesterly and then wintry weather will happen. Keep the faith people plenty of time yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Evening All -

    A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO continued to promote blocking out to day 6 however today the day 6 isnt really anything to like -

    So with a heavy heart im already bowing out of the model output for Winter.

    The time that I spend on here posting which is essentially a bit of 'me' time has slowly shrunk over the years to the point now where im on here when time is needed elsewhere with the kids & family.

    I may well post in the regionals at the prospects of snow are local but my times up.

    Stay safe.
    Love your familes. ❤️

    All the very best, Steve, and I can quite see why you have decided to focus on family priorities in this horrible year that we are all struggling with.  

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Oh what love your posts Steve. Look after yourself mate and the family . 
     

    ps please come back 😢

    You will know when he's back....

    .

    Snow fest incoming.

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