Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Some cold hope within the cfs but i dont think these will verify. 

 

Not cold enough. Might be cold enough for sleet though?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

it’s not ten years since we had a brilliant snowy winter though ??  And dec ‘10 was a once in a hundred years month .....that’s more than persistent cold ! 

Yeh I get your point blue.. And yes that was exceptional... Those fab days of the early 80s freezes seem like an eternity though.. Every year back then come as know suprise when we had snow or cold snaps.. Back then the forecasters would just say... We have High Pressure building over Scandy....imcoming Estly... Possible undercuts from the Atlantic fronts.... Boom.. Jobs a good un... Now we have so much technical advances online it seems to have to be a work of art just to get a cold snap in. Most likely due to the fact that cold pools are decreasing. I'm not without hope just yet though... I ain't heard know fat lady sing just yet... But I can hear her clearing her throat in the rehearsal rooms..

 

 

 

[blizzard81]

28 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So it has all gone up in smoke then!  The invisible block is no more. This is more devastating this year than many for so many reasons, first +4C the go to average temperature for UK rubbish winter weather is the optimum for Covid-19, but more importantly if ever we needed something to take our minds off the apocalypse that will not end for months it is now, and endless wind and rain is absolutely not what was required.  The GloSea5 update the final kick in the teeth, if that can’t see a SSW, there won’t be one.  

The one thing I have learnt over the years on here is not to take anybody's word as gospel. And I mean anybody. That goes for whether they go for cold or mild. Don't get me wrong. I listen and take into account what everyone has to say and of course, like most members I value some people's views more than others. Ultimately though, I weigh everything up myself, taking on board a whole series of opinions and then come to my own conclusion. With this in mind, my thoughts with regards to the Christmas weather is as follows....... It is still way too early to forecast. I like to remind people at this time of year about what happened back in 2005. The meto (along with their bbc forecasts) constantly forecast a mild and wet Christmas right up to 6 to 7 days beforehand. What actually transpired? Quite a potent easterly. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by blizzard81

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats the problem chino...

The pot of gold overwhelmingly  turns into a crock of crap.

If I had a pound for the number of times the extended eps looked fabulous until you count down and the cold signal is diluted to nothing id be a rich boy !!

Even someone like myself with a mere fraction of the knowledge of others on here could see the writing on the wall for Dec a week or more since...

On reflection I totally understand peeps looking for avenues to cold ,truth is they are,95% of the time in a warmingworld,a mirage...

I think you've coined the new Winter forum title there NWS  

Edited December 11, 2020 by Day 10

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I think you've coined the new Winter forum title there NWS  

Well we have to keep a sense of humour mate ...

Let's hope for a swing in fortunes over the coming days ..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The one thing I have learnt over the years on here is not to take anybody's word as gospel. And I mean anybody. That goes for whether they go for cold or mild. Don't get me wrong. I listen and take into account what everyone has to say and of course, like most members I value some people's views more than others. Ultimately though, I weigh everything up myself, taking on board a whole series of opinions and then come to my own conclusion. With this in mind, my thoughts with regards to the Christmas weather is as follows....... It is still way too early to forecast. I like to remind people at this time of year about what happened back in 2005. The meto (along with their bbc forecasts) constantly forecast a mild and wet Christmas right up to 6 to 7 days beforehand. What actually transpired? Quite a potent easterly. 

100% agree with this statement... We have some exceptional knowledgeable posters on here and it makes for a great read. But the weather makes mugs of the best pros out there. I was kind of hoping that I would never see the day where we would have to end up praying for major SSW events just to deliver a cold snap.. But alas those days seem to have arrived.. I had a nightmare last night... Its the end of January... Still no cold snap... When all of a sudden we Start to get the first posts of...... Never mind, at least we will have some spring warmth to look forward to soon.. What a nightmare that was.. 

I'm not gonna derail the thread any longer with off topic posts.. Sorry Mods.. 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, MATT said:

So now Mike that's EC46 and Glosea not looking favourable. I got the impression from chatting with Tamara that she was thinking that this EC take on things was how she thought it could be panning out. This was prior to her post the other day when she had only had a brief look into things, but I got the impression from her post that things could end up being pretty difficult. If we can't get a favourable outcome  with a favourable Hemisphere, what chance have we got! All of this is driving me nuts... A couple of years ago we had very positive background signals which didn't even devolop a cold snap... Last year we had the IOD that seem to be a major spanner in the works... Now so far this year favourable sypnotics seem to be going to waste.. I noticed when I checked the long range EC anomalies the other day, that large parts of Europe as well as the states are being shown to be warmer than avareage also.. So we are not alone. Its already been 10 years since we had significant and persistent cold, surely to god we are due a change of fortunes... But like you say Exeter don't seem to keen on the idea of any major SSW... Hopefully things will change... But my god things rapidly drift away once Xmas is out of the way.. 

Yes Matt, and @chionomaniac, I am on the verge of calling time on this winter, and this is very unusual for me.  I would like to explain why.  

It is the Met Office and their model, GloSea5.  If it predicts mild with certainty it has never been wrong, as far as i can see (going to back to since it was GloSea4).  Last year it was right, and the reason was the Indian Ocean Dipole.  I had never even heard of it and it delivered and then some.  The only time GloSea5 has been totally wrong has been, yes you’ve guessed it, when it has forecast cold.  I think it was 2016/17 winter, all looking good and then winter over by about 7 Dec if I recall correctly, wasn’t posting at the time much, @CreweCold will remember, as he was quite vociferous about it.  

I’m concerned about our hobby.  If UK winter can be predicted like this, what is the point?  It removes the rush when something unexpected happens.  Analogy to gambling.  I like gambling, it gives me a rush.  Around year 2000 i had inside info into certain pub fruit machines and could make a regular profit, and guess what it wasn’t much fun, if you know you are going to win or lose it takes away the experience.  

I think that is half way to where we are with winter now, unfortunately, we now know if we haven’t got a cat in hells chance of a cold winter half the years, but we don’t know, in the other years, if we’ve got a chance, maybe, maybe not.  I’m sure GloSea7 will be soon able to close off that element of our uncertainty and fun and novelty of proper wintery weather.  When I was a child, to find it had snowed overnight and flakes still falling in the morning, it was magical.  Now, it hardly ever happens, and in the future GloSea7 will tell you which day of which month you might next expect that unlikely event to happen.  

All the best, Mike

Edited December 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Gowon]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The one thing I have learnt over the years on here is not to take anybody's word as gospel. And I mean anybody. That goes for whether they go for cold or mild. Don't get me wrong. I listen and take into account what everyone has to say and of course, like most members I value some people's views more than others. Ultimately though, I weigh everything up myself, taking on board a whole series of opinions and then come to my own conclusion. With this in mind, my thoughts with regards to the Christmas weather is as follows....... It is still way too early to forecast. I like to remind people at this time of year about what happened back in 2005. The meto (along with their bbc forecasts) constantly forecast a mild and wet Christmas right up to 6 to 7 days beforehand. What actually transpired? Quite a potent easterly. 

The models have improved a lot in 15 years.

I joined in 2009, so I wouldn't have been looking at the other models, and I wonder what netweather was forecasting?

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps mean has never looked fabulous ....even with the low euro anomolys, there wasn’t any cold around to get decent snowfall out of the pattern - we did well to get what we did last week!  The e euro ridge has persisted and prevented any low uppers getting into Europe  

The E Europe high in tandem with the strong W Russian block is a recipe for rain for long suffering uk coldies...

As you are aware no doubt..

[chionomaniac]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats the problem chino...

The pot of gold overwhelmingly  turns into a crock of crap.

If I had a pound for the number of times the extended eps looked fabulous until you count down and the cold signal is diluted to nothing id be a rich boy !!

Even someone like myself with a mere fraction of the knowledge of others on here could see the writing on the wall for Dec a week or more since...

On reflection I totally understand peeps looking for avenues to cold ,truth is they are,95% of the time in a warmingworld,a mirage...

Lol. Yes a crock of crap sums up many winters since the last solar minimum. Though I have to say I never trust the ECM weeklies or monthly update. I will always go on strat and other teleconnective signals. Experience shows that this can often catch cold spells far earlier than the models.

[LRD]

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes Matt, and @chionomaniac, I am on the verge of calling time on this winter, and this is very unusual for me.  I would like to explain why.  

It is the Met Office and their model, GloSea5.  If it predicts mild with certainty it has never been wrong, as far as i can see (going to back to since it was GloSea4).  Last year it was right, and the reason was Indian Ocean Dipole.  I had never even heard of it and it delivered and then some.  The only time GloSea5 has been totally wrong has been, yes you’ve guessed it, when it has forecast cold.  I think it was 2016/17 winter, all looking good and then winter over by about 7 Dec if I recall correctly, wasn’t posting at the time much, @CreweCold will remember, as he was quite vociferous about it.  

I’m concerned about our hobby.  If UK winter can be predicted like this, what is the point?  It removes the rush when something unexpected happens.  Analogy to gambling.  I like gambling, it gives me a rush.  Around year 2000 i had inside info into certain pub fruit machines and could make a regular profit, and guess what it wasn’t much fun, if you know you are going to win or lose it takes away the experience.  

I think that is half way to where we are with winter now, unfortunately, we now know if we haven’t got a cat in hells chance of a cold winter half the years, but we don’t know, in the other years, if we’ve got a chance, maybe, maybe not.  I’m sure GloSea7 will be soon able to close off that element of our uncertainty and fun and novelty of proper wintery weather.  When I was a child, to find it had snowed overnight and flakes still falling in the morning, it was magical.  Now, it hardly ever happens, and in the future GloSea7 will tell you which day of which month you might next expect that unlikely event to happen.  

All the best, Mike

Agree with that. I seem to recall it didn't predict the deluge of 2013-14 though. It didn't predict cold that year but it was going with milder and drier I seem to recall - and we all know what happened that year. Rain like we've hardly ever seen before. You're right, though, GLOSEA is a pretty reliable model and, although it could be wrong, we'd be foolish to dismiss it

[WINTRY WALES]

I agree with Mike Poole, it has become so frustrating with the thrill of seeing the knowledgeable posters coming out of the woodwork these last few weeks as things looked so encouraging for a decent chance of a cold spell. And in a matter of 48 hours it’s near enough vanished a so often the case the last decade. So many people on here love the spirit of the forum when the pot of gold lands and it’s such a shame it seems near enough impossible these years. Global warming? Bad luck? Surely it’s option B if other parts of the globe can still experience harsh winters? 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

I agree with Mike Poole, it has become so frustrating with the thrill of seeing the knowledgeable posters coming out of the woodwork these last few weeks as things looked so encouraging for a decent chance of a cold spell. And in a matter of 48 hours it’s near enough vanished a so often the case the last decade. So many people on here love the spirit of the forum when the pot of gold lands and it’s such a shame it seems near enough impossible these years. Global warming? Bad luck? Surely it’s option B if other parts of the globe can still experience harsh winters? 

Does the weather 'do' bad luck? I doubt it. There is a proper scientific reason for pretty much everything and I'm not sure luck plays a part at all. If we do think in those terms, though, then there still has to be a reason for the bad 'luck'. It doesn't just happen. 

Anyway, off-topic, sorry mods

[SteveB]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

I agree with Mike Poole, it has become so frustrating with the thrill of seeing the knowledgeable posters coming out of the woodwork these last few weeks as things looked so encouraging for a decent chance of a cold spell. And in a matter of 48 hours it’s near enough vanished a so often the case the last decade. So many people on here love the spirit of the forum when the pot of gold lands and it’s such a shame it seems near enough impossible these years. Global warming? Bad luck? Surely it’s option B if other parts of the globe can still experience harsh winters? 

I suspect it's a bit of both. It's not just the UK,  Western Europe all seem to miss out. We must be in a cycle of milder Winters, as pre 87 cold spells in Winter were more common. I would love to know what the polar vortex did in years gone by, because to me, having it set up shop over Greenland is a sure fire why to scupper cold spells.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

I agree with Mike Poole, it has become so frustrating with the thrill of seeing the knowledgeable posters coming out of the woodwork these last few weeks as things looked so encouraging for a decent chance of a cold spell. And in a matter of 48 hours it’s near enough vanished a so often the case the last decade. So many people on here love the spirit of the forum when the pot of gold lands and it’s such a shame it seems near enough impossible these years. Global warming? Bad luck? Surely it’s option B if other parts of the globe can still experience harsh winters? 

To respond, I think it is due to global warming unfortunately, things in the NH have changed so much in the last 20 years, but here is not the place to discuss them.  Regards other parts of the world, they don’t have the Atlantic on the doorstep and in the path of the prevailing winds.

[northwestsnow]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes Matt, and @chionomaniac, I am on the verge of calling time on this winter, and this is very unusual for me.  I would like to explain why.  

It is the Met Office and their model, GloSea5.  If it predicts mild with certainty it has never been wrong, as far as i can see (going to back to since it was GloSea4).  Last year it was right, and the reason was Indian Ocean Dipole.  I had never even heard of it and it delivered and then some.  The only time GloSea5 has been totally wrong has been, yes you’ve guessed it, when it has forecast cold.  I think it was 2016/17 winter, all looking good and then winter over by about 7 Dec if I recall correctly, wasn’t posting at the time much, @CreweCold will remember, as he was quite vociferous about it.  

I’m concerned about our hobby.  If UK winter can be predicted like this, what is the point?  It removes the rush when something unexpected happens.  Analogy to gambling.  I like gambling, it gives me a rush.  Around year 2000 i had inside info into certain pub fruit machines and could make a regular profit, and guess what it wasn’t much fun, if you know you are going to win or lose it takes away the experience.  

I think that is half way to where we are with winter now, unfortunately, we now know if we haven’t got a cat in hells chance of a cold winter half the years, but we don’t know, in the other years, if we’ve got a chance, maybe, maybe not.  I’m sure GloSea7 will be soon able to close off that element of our uncertainty and fun and novelty of proper wintery weather.  When I was a child, to find it had snowed overnight and flakes still falling in the morning, it was magical.  Now, it hardly ever happens, and in the future GloSea7 will tell you which day of which month you might next expect that unlikely event to happen.  

All the best, Mike

Pretty much were im at Mike...

Although I'm not giving up on this winter despite what Glosea suggests...

Let's see where we are this time next week, a colder Christmas is still possible,moreover for Northern areas with altitude...

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

To respond, I think it is due to global warming unfortunately, things in the NH have changed so much in the last 20 years, but here is not the place to discuss them.  Regards other parts of the world, they don’t have the Atlantic on the doorstep and in the path of the prevailing winds.

I often look at what the models are showing for the west coast of the US and Canada - it's a pretty similar story there. It ain't just us. 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver was plagued by double-digit maxima

Chart for the pacific NW 96 hours from now:

Temps in Seattle up into the 50s farenheit by the end of next week although sightly less mild further inland

Edited December 11, 2020 by LRD

[WINTRY WALES]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

To respond, I think it is due to global warming unfortunately, things in the NH have changed so much in the last 20 years, but here is not the place to discuss them.  Regards other parts of the world, they don’t have the Atlantic on the doorstep and in the path of the prevailing winds.

Yes living here in the uk I’d agree with you....but if you asked people who lived in say Greece or turkey the last few years they would say “what global warming” . Sorry to go off topic just so difficult to explain the difficulty in the uk landing anywhere near the jackpot these days! It seems the only numbers on our dice is a big fat 1 whole other countries can roll out a 6 with ease

Edited December 11, 2020 by WINTRY WALES

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Couple of things, LP from Atlantic will play it’s part and like 18z the further east the little zippers get imo the better.

 

2ndly....get ready for a 5-6c January....westerly fest incoming and a 4c December will look like a front loaded winter..

Cold blast for last week of Dec still on imo

 

BFTP
 

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[snowbob]

I really can not believe what I’m reading 

it’s the 11th of December

i know this thread has its ups and downs but seriously. 
 

there is no way any computer or model or chart can predict what’s going to happen in January.

if we had the technology to look that far into the future of meteorology then forecasts for the week ahead would be spot on to the point of extreme accuracy. To which they or not.

I think all models especially the GFS are struggling at the minute, and will settle on a solution to the run up to Xmas (be it cold or mild) no one or super chip knows as yet.

can you imagine a world that certain we wouldn’t need forecasts. We could plan the 23rd January weather right now.

Can we 

no chance

p.s just one more little thing to add. If some posters on here are taking long range models as gospel for example. Why is it that if one model shows narnia, they can’t even trust 6 hours for it to be true.

lol

just saying !!

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by snowbob

[LRD]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Pretty much were im at Mike...

Although I'm not giving up on this winter despite what Glosea suggests...

Let's see where we are this time next week, a colder Christmas is still possible,moreover for Northern areas with altitude...

D'you mean Norway?!

 

 

Sorry couldn't resist!

[Jason M]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Pretty much were im at Mike...

Although I'm not giving up on this winter despite what Glosea suggests...

Let's see where we are this time next week, a colder Christmas is still possible,moreover for Northern areas with altitude...

Absolutely right not to give up. Its the 11th today and if we add 14 days that takes us up to the 'big day'. Very unlikely that we see a deep cold spell in that timeframe but that still leaves the last few days of Dec,  Jan & Feb and if we are honest much of the UK rarely see's snow before late Jan / early Feb. Will it happen? probably not but it still could do 

I do think the disappointment is overdone tonight. After all, there never was any cold spell on offer. It was just a mirage that occasionally popped up at day 15 and its bad enough when people get upset over a chase that fails but even more perplexing when nothing was even showing in the output.

Anyway, onto the next lap of the rollercoaster 

[Blessed Weather]

OK folks - that was a good venting of frustration this evening and understandable. But with the 18z now rolling out, maybe a good time to gently nudge the thread back onto model output discussion please. Thanks. 

[Daniel*]

Too much emotion enters this thread in my opinion, it’s rather silly to say things things are over with on December 11th I sense @chionomaniac post appears to be deflating. But concerning the tropospheric polar vortex there’s no sign of normality returning there anytime soon, and the disconnect remains as stratospheric vortex weakens, the Arctic high anomaly isn’t going anywhere fast, the longer it holds the better. Surprises always happen even in 2020 this winter is a tricky one more than most winters, remember all the seasonal models are all going with the North Pacific ridge including GloSea5 and well we have seen none of that so far, a typical La Niña component. Modelling isn’t interested in it either in future. We have to remember what we consider a La Niña pattern is made up of an average, there are always oddities on either sides, models make assumptions on averages. There’s no certainties in long range forecasting only uncertainty.

[Uncertainty]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes Matt, and @chionomaniac, I am on the verge of calling time on this winter, and this is very unusual for me.  I would like to explain why.  

It is the Met Office and their model, GloSea5.  If it predicts mild with certainty it has never been wrong, as far as i can see (going to back to since it was GloSea4).  Last year it was right, and the reason was Indian Ocean Dipole.  I had never even heard of it and it delivered and then some.  The only time GloSea5 has been totally wrong has been, yes you’ve guessed it, when it has forecast cold.  I think it was 2016/17 winter, all looking good and then winter over by about 7 Dec if I recall correctly, wasn’t posting at the time much, @CreweCold will remember, as he was quite vociferous about it.  

I’m concerned about our hobby.  If UK winter can be predicted like this, what is the point?  It removes the rush when something unexpected happens.  Analogy to gambling.  I like gambling, it gives me a rush.  Around year 2000 i had inside info into certain pub fruit machines and could make a regular profit, and guess what it wasn’t much fun, if you know you are going to win or lose it takes away the experience.  

I think that is half way to where we are with winter now, unfortunately, we now know if we haven’t got a cat in hells chance of a cold winter half the years, but we don’t know, in the other years, if we’ve got a chance, maybe, maybe not.  I’m sure GloSea7 will be soon able to close off that element of our uncertainty and fun and novelty of proper wintery weather.  When I was a child, to find it had snowed overnight and flakes still falling in the morning, it was magical.  Now, it hardly ever happens, and GloSea7 will tell you which day of which month you might next expect that unlikely event to happen.  

All the best, Mike

I get this Mike and the latest Seasonals are a kick in the teeth and likely to be correct but they absolutely can’t discount a shorter cold spell within the broader westerly pattern. Moreover, Glosea didn’t get the Feb 2018 BFTE event and ensuing blocked early Spring right.... 

**Disclaimer - it has sadly got most things right since, including this summer gone...

However, there is no chance in the next decade that seasonal forecasting will be able to definitively tell you the weather on a particular day. Hell, the ECM can’t get day 9 right most of the time and how often is the 144 UKMO wrong? Seasonal forecasting is powerful in Winter and I imagine very useful for planners, government departments and gas distribution managers but they can’t and won’t be putting the remit of this thread out of business any time soon pal. 
 

That said the picture for Jan / Feb has been grim on the seasonals since August hence mine and other hope to cash in on the blocked December. All eyes then on that MJO passage later this month, should that fail... there may be dragons ahead