Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Chesil View]

2 hours ago, IDO said:

Looking at the latest GloSEA update and it backs up that this is likely to be a front loaded winter and those expecting a cold Jan-Feb look away:

Ensemble-mean maps

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Ensemble-mean fields up to six months ahead. Updated monthly,

So the models are not on our side, milder and wet with a classic UK winter setup is what the algorithms are saying. Some may pin their hope on a SSW but that was too little and too late last winter so maybe wary of that rescuing us? Hopefully mixed in with the general theme we can get a few cold spells and that we get a bit more luck than the recent one!

Indeed so IDO. The thing with all these long term means is that in terms of weather on the ground they can be well.... rather meaningless.

Most of us cold/snow lovers on here would happily take a two week cold and snowy spell this winter and be very thankful.

So for the next ten weeks between now and the end of Feb lets say my weather station has 8 weeks at an average of a mild 10c the other two week are very cold with lying snow and an average of  0c.  The mean will come in at 8c which on the face of it would never suggest that it was cold enough to sustain a two week snow cover.

The same goes for pressure, Forecasting lower than average pressure over Greenland  for the next ten weeks does not prohibit a two week long Greenland  high flooding the UK with arctic air and snowfall.  It simply means the model thinks pressure in those locations will be lower then average for most of the time.

As a  general broadbrush forecasting parameters tool Glosea is an interesting addition to the model portfolio, but as Nuanced weather on the ground forecasting tool it is in my opinion really rather limited. 

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Call me crazy, actually call me insane...actually I am clinically insane...go figure ( all these mild winters )...., BUT I am seeing some wintry potential longer term between crimbo and new year in the GEFS 6z...anyone feel free to contradict me but there is currently potential for something of a wintry nature during the festive period....I’ve been seeing signs of the jet (PFJ) digging further south as time goes on..don’t laugh, I’m being sincere...now I’m going back to the insane asylum...catch you guys later..down the road..unless the 12z runs show narnia!!  

PS..such a looooong page ( longest page in netweather history..hmmm? )... and such a hot topic ..well, not currently but when the 12z begins....... at least despite my insanity my sense of humour is still intact..or is it..?!..I admire all the enthusiasm on here..we have such crap winters don’t we...compared to Canada, Finland..Russia ?...anyway...have a great winter..I mean Friday..

 

PS..where’s TEITS?...really miss some of the greats from the past..well, from the golden era of 2005!

We all know the "winter potential" wont happen. Have you seen the JMA? Looking like a winter heatwave despite all the Northern blocking and negative NAO. Murphys law really wants to play here. 

[Gowon]

48 minutes ago, hurricane-anna said:

Seriously, can't we just have model discussion in here?? All of u writing off winter on the 11th dec make me laugh.. yes we want snow, yes we want cold and yes we want a white xmas but were a tiny island mostly influenced by the Atlantic.. most years we struggle to get a dusting of the elusive white stuff, if it happens it happens, most of the time these things 'pop up' within a very small timeframe and even the best forecasters get taken aback by how fast they show up and then become reality.. personally I love watching possibilities out in fl but seriously how often do they come true.. I'd rather be here to learn, observe and see if it happens, but slashing wrists over 1 run, calling off winter in the 2nd week of december??? I think some of u need a long lay down with a few bevvys and some off screen time... 

Sorry for being a mardy fart...

Please get back to the models... sorry for being off topic

Yes, in the past that would be the case; but it's very rare nowadays for anything to just pop up within a small timeframe.

Most of us have been on here for years and seen a lot of promising signals and charts which hardly ever becomes reality. 

Sadly the English winters are so tedious and it appears to be recurring in exactly the same way every year.  

(Hopefully every thing I've just said will come back to bite me)

[STRiZZY]

9 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

We all know the "winter potential" wont happen. Have you seen the JMA? Looking like a winter heatwave despite all the Northern blocking and negative NAO. Murphys law really wants to play here. 

The JMA? Lol come on now!

[Updated_Weather]

Is it just me or does the ICON 12z and GFS12z out to 138hrs look slightly different?

GFS on the top, ICON on the bottom.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Updated_Weather

[Mike Poole]

35 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

As a  general broadbrush forecasting parameters tool Glosea is an interesting addition to the model portfolio, but as Nuanced weather on the ground forecasting tool it is in my opinion really rather limited. 

 

For us it is, yes, because we only see three month averages over many ensembles.  I’m sure the Met Office get a lot more from it, being able to see the details of every run, at every time point.  We don’t get that so it provides us with little insight.  I for one would be interested how likely it thinks a SSW is, not very, I’m guessing.  

[STRiZZY]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Is it just me or does the ICON 12z and GFS12z out to 138hrs look slightly different?

A bit cooler in Central Europe at 138hrs on the 12z vs the 6z. 

[alexisj9]

22 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Is it just me or does the ICON 12z and GFS12z out to 138hrs look slightly different?

GFS on the top, ICON on the bottom.

Yep to me it looks like fl is still on the fourteenth, like yesterday, models are struggling with high pressure.

Edited December 11, 2020 by alexisj9

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Is it just me or does the ICON 12z and GFS12z out to 138hrs look slightly different?

GFS on the top, ICON on the bottom.

Things ie low pressure slightly further south. Pressure slightly higher to the north esp off USA coast. Only minor Heighths scattered around

[TSNWK]

Gfs 174 has changed a fair amount upstream better heights off Canada.. enough to keep me interested for now....

 

[Daniel*]

Certainly not without wintry interest especially further north.

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Gfs 174 has changed a fair amount upstream better heights off Canada.. enough to keep me interested for now....

 

Could be a start of a turn around for cold lovers luck? 

We shall see 

[Cold Winter]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Gfs 174 has changed a fair amount upstream better heights off Canada.. enough to keep me interested for now....

 

Certainly an interesting time for model watching...

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Could be a start of a turn around for cold lovers luck? 

We shall see 

Might be a big ask? But who knows.. It is 2020.

[swfc]

At 200 hrs the PV is pushed away from esb USA. Pressure holding also. Slight improvement tbh. Slack northerly possible 

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, it looks like the dear, old GFS has gone [enter fruit, confection, savoury of choice]-shaped at t+183:

    

[Updated_Weather]

I think we can all agree the GFS has no idea at the moment? xD

[Cold Winter]

High pressure over eastern Canada trying to link with Greenland high on this run...

Brief northerly before the next low arrives or something more sustained?

Edited December 11, 2020 by Cold Winter

[Day 10]

Far from a typical zonal setup some have been touting, still plenty of time for cold improvements.

[fromey]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

I think we can all agree the GFS has no idea at the moment? xD

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I think we can all agree the GFS has no idea at the moment? xD

Did it ever really??!!

[Vikos]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I think we can all agree the GFS has no idea at the moment? xD

Who has those days?

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Might be a big ask? But who knows.. It is 2020.

Who knows? At least it's not as bad as the "horror" charts that sacred some folk off yesterday

All for interesting model viewing regardless of perspective 

 

[DavidS]

Not sure whether the GFS has an idea or not, but it looks a bit better, because it actually moves the low through.

[Methuselah]

Just now, DavidS said:

Not sure whether the GFS has an idea or not, but it looks a bit better, because it actually moves the low through.

Nuff said!

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Not sure whether the GFS has an idea or not, but it looks a bit better, because it actually moves the low through.

We will take anything at this stage!