Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Special special chart to end the 0z GFS

-20 uppers heading towards the UK, right in time for Christmas

That's 1 in 10-20 year level cold heading our way btw

Another early morning Bank crewe

[snowangel32]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Special special chart to end the 0z GFS

-20 uppers heading towards the UK, right in time for Christmas

Looking good i think we are in the raffle for Christmas this year I seriously can't remember the last cold Xmas.

All we need is cross model agreement and a nice smooth run up to Xmas whilst avoiding those troublesome short waves. What could possibly go wrong lol.

Great start to this morning runs nonetheless.

 

 

[Ali1977]

Great FI on the GFS as CC has pointed out, but I think FI is currently around 120-144, as this low pressure and height build to the north still needs resolving. The latest UKMO has a better NH profile than the GFS at 144 with the LP staying out to the West, which is allowing heights to build to the North. What happens beyond here is a tricky one to call I’d say!! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Another early morning Bank crewe

The country would resemble Canada in the depths of January a couple of days on from that last chart. 

Would be utter paralysis of the country. That's how special that chart is.

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 120

Latest UKMO fax  charts has fronts grinding to a halt over Eastern Britain later this week and even into weekend. Whether the next  low way out in the Atlantic has enough of a humph  to push the NW  European trough away, I am not sure. However, the American models seem to suggest  that is likely with the weakening of the Russian/ Urals block by weekend allowing a milder flow into the British Isles. Outwardly, the UKMO big picture at 120t may suggest some resistence to this evolution.

C

[Cheshire Freeze]

TPV split showing up strongly in the GEFS now towards the back end 

[KTtom]

Oh dear, looks like were back loo,ing at T384 for any eye candy again!  (suppose we should be gratefull, didnt even get 384 eye candy last year!)

Fairly good agreement that by day 6 the Atlantic low will not disrupt and will bring along a return to mild southwesterlies with rain, more frequent in the west. Fair play to dragon (i think thats his name) who constantly forecast this against a tidalwave of opposition...

Edited December 8, 2020 by KTtom

[bluearmy]

Ukmo arctic profile a lot more encouraging for a quicker route to cold than the rest of the models ..... once ecm is out to day 10  we can review properly but it looks like gfs/gem wouldn’t bring any deep cold until around Xmas ...... however gfs does get there and gem looks like it would do similarly 

[Radiating Dendrite]

15 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Oh dear, looks like were back loo,ing at T384 for any eye candy again!

Fairly good agreement that by day 6 the Atlantic low will not disrupt and will bring along a return to mild southwesterlies with rain, more frequent in the west. Fair play to dargon (i think thats his name) who constantly forecast this against a tidalwave of opposition...

Dragon forecasted mild SW winds until March - think we need to wait a little longer before congratulating him on that. 

Nobody on here was forecasting snow within the next 5 days, just musing about the possible longer game. 

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Special special chart to end the 0z GFS

-20 uppers heading towards the UK, right in time for Christmas

That's 1 in 10-20 year level cold heading our way btw

Hopefully the cold backs west and not south

[That ECM]

Some fun output to look at this morning. End of gfs is special. However I like this at t192 ecm. 

[bluearmy]

That ecm run shows that without those green shades on meteociel  (ie high heights) pushing into the pole on a trajectory for our side of the NH, the arctic high is left to meander rather than make a rush this side to interfere with the n Atlantic and Eurasian pattern ..... the Ukmo looks isolated on this and progressive ..... slow burner to cold which presents a lot of forks in the road for us to end up at the wrong destination!

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That ecm run shows that without those green shades on meteociel  (ie high heights) pushing into the pole on a trajectory for our side of the NH, the arctic high is left to meander rather than make a rush this side to interfere with the n Atlantic and Eurasian pattern ..... the Ukmo looks isolated on this and progressive ..... slow burner to cold which presents a lot of forks in the road for us to end up at the wrong destination!

Slow burner were the two words which sprung to my mind too.

Proper cold this side of the Christmas period is now pretty remote I think.

Just need to keep watching for building blocks into January.

[dragan]

17 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Dragon forecasted mild SW winds until March - think we need to wait a little longer before congratulating him on that. 

Nobody on here was forecasting snow within the next 5 days, just musing about the possible longer game. 

 

i’m not sure i described as non stop south westerlies.....did i.....

Anyway, out until day 10 and i reckon beyond looking at both the ECM and latest gfs , decent consistency in my opinion for us to receive further pulses of weather veering from south easterly to south westerly.

Although it’s never going to be overly mild.

If heights in Europe rise we could be looking at a full on southerly which would indeed bring us very mild temps. 

A sort of scandinavian european high combined.

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That ecm run shows that without those green shades on meteociel  (ie high heights) pushing into the pole on a trajectory for our side of the NH, the arctic high is left to meander rather than make a rush this side to interfere with the n Atlantic and Eurasian pattern ..... the Ukmo looks isolated on this and progressive ..... slow burner to cold which presents a lot of forks in the road for us to end up at the wrong destination!

I understand the excitement looking at the NH picture but for the next 10days minimum we are stuck with Atlantic wind and rain.

Another EC det for the bin ? Hope so because its horrible, from where I'm sat anyway.

GFS 00Z is lovely into FI,hope springs eternal...

I noticed this low in the East Atlantic was going to hang around like a bad smell a few days ago and with heights building across Europe I got a sense of foreboding , the risk of a + NAO pattern setting up is real ,and in view of recent EC means ,growing ! 

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by northwestsnow

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Latest UKMO fax  charts has fronts grinding to a halt over Eastern Britain later this week and even into weekend. Whether the next  low way out in the Atlantic has enough of a humph  to push the NW  European trough away, I am not sure. However, the American models seem to suggest  that is likely with the weakening of the Russian/ Urals block by weekend allowing a milder flow into the British Isles. Outwardly, the UKMO big picture at 120t may suggest some resistence to this evolution.

C

Looks like ECM heading towards a pre Christmas mild spell with rinse and spin chart for the British Isles with soggy conditions. Not what many of us cold lovers want to see but still 10 days away !

 C

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I understand the excitement looking at the NH picture but for the next 10days minimum we are stuck with Atlantic wind and rain.

Another EC det for the bin ? Hope so because its horrible, from where I'm sat anyway.

GFS 00Z is lovely into FI,hope springs eternal...

I noticed this low in the East Atlantic was going to hang around like a bad smell a few days ago and with heights building across Europe I got a sense of foreboding , the risk of a + NAO pattern setting up is real ,and in view of recent EC means ,growing ! 

 

The upper trough is centred south west of Iceland with no Azores high and highish anomolys griceland  across to scandi .... Nao won’t be positive this side of day 8 ??   Beyond that one would hope a viable route to cold will be showing in the models 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The upper trough is centred south west of Iceland with no Azores high and highish anomolys griceland  across to scandi .... Nao won’t be positive this side of day 8 ??   Beyond that one would hope a viable route to cold will be showing in the models 

Strictly speaking yes, its not until later in the run we see the dreaded Icelandic low/ Euro high combo.

I've been quiet because this is exactly what I'm fearing, this setup if it happens,can be a winter killer...

We'll see, of course things may look differently in a few days time,hopefully better ...

[jules216]

As always only 384h away

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Strictly speaking yes, its not until later in the run we see the dreaded Icelandic low/ Euro high combo.

I've been quiet because this is exactly what I'm fearing, this setup if it happens,can be a winter killer...

We'll see, of course things may look differently in a few days time,hopefully better ...

@dragan’s sceuro high looks way more likely than a euro high in the 8/12 day period .....quite a marked e european upper ridge establishing in that period on the eps ....hopefully transient as the upper ridge builds into Svalbard and beyond and allows troughing to drop around the back etc etc

Edited December 8, 2020 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

@dragan’s sceuro high looks way more likely than a euro high in the 8/12 day period .....quite a marked e european upper ridge establishing in that period on the eps 

In fairness I am absolutely the first to ramp if things are looking good.

Conversely I'm first to hoist the white flag if things look grim...

I'm not feeling it right now Blue but like everyone else ,or the majority,hoping for the best...

Hoping EC det has lost the plot!

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

@dragan’s sceuro high looks way more likely than a euro high in the 8/12 day period .....quite a marked e european upper ridge establishing in that period on the eps ....hopefully transient as the upper ridge builds into Svalbard and beyond and allows troughing to drop around the back etc etc

And also relies on the Atlantic playing ball!!

[swfc]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In fairness I am absolutely the first to ramp if things are looking good.

Conversely I'm first to hoist the white flag if things look grim...

I'm not feeling it right now Blue but like everyone else ,or the majority,hoping for the best...

Hoping EC det has lost the plot!

Yes nw ec isn't a pretty site this morning along with 0z gfs. Looking towards and beyond Xmas for a better winter outbreak is great imo but Dosnt detract from the next ten days ete it's the model thread after all. I'd give my grand mother's wooden leg for the oz gfs fi but wel see. Maybe reining things in a bit expectation wise mighnt level things off and keeping an eye on the strat thread?

Edited December 8, 2020 by swfc

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In fairness I am absolutely the first to ramp if things are looking good.

Conversely I'm first to hoist the white flag if things look grim...

I'm not feeling it right now Blue but like everyone else ,or the majority,hoping for the best...

Hoping EC det has lost the plot!

Hang in there @northwestsnow!



All 51 members of the ECM 00z ensemble go for a very blocked outlook in the days leading up to xmas. Looks stonking to me!
 

[swfc]

23 minutes ago, jules216 said:

As always only 384h away

Yep "the chase is on"