Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[West is Best]

48 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

while they try to get to grips with the Arctic high.

Is that this winter's myth? Seems so to me. 

We're back into zonality. By all means hit that ignore button but there's no point pretending otherwise. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by West is Best

[West is Best]

47 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

This Is the reason I don’t look beyond 5 days, it’s pointless.  These super computer generated models are no more accurate than a 5 year old scribbling on paper.  In fact I believe the long range forecasts have not improved greatly over the last 40 years.  Best to stick to 3 - 4 days out, as blocking type weather throws up easterlies at short notice.  The charts beyond 5 days are just for fun, last nights and today’s models prove that.

I totally agree. The GFS has been shocking in FI for months. I started studying it carefully in the summer, really so that I was prepared in case of let-downs this winter. In the words of Rowan Atkinson, it's up and down more than a whore's drawers 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Is that this winter's myth? Seems so to me. 

We're back into zonality. By all means hit that ignore button but there's no point pretending otherwise. 

Yep on the ground level at least, it's a zonal outlook and a increasingly mild one. We can't even get any proper zonal cold NW'lies following due to a lack of PV over Greenland which should usually means good news for cold lovers but not this winter. 

My heart just sinks looking at Scandinavia, upper air temperatures at least are just so warm, its buckling the jet to head more northwards and its stopping any PV heading down into Scandinavia thus making the Arctic high having little to no effect on our weather. 

[West is Best]

48 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

For me, one of the biggest problems with all the runs in recent days is not so much the stationary blocking over Russia, but all the lows getting spun up around Hudson Bay that are being carried towards us. Yes obviously we want these to be sent on more of a southern trajectory, but if they weren't being flung across the Atlantic towards us then that would be better overall. I am not sure if that is a too simplistic view of things? 

Yes and I see no convincing evidence that an Artic High is any bleeding use for the UK. In fact, iirc, the best scenario is displacement of the polar vortex, not its static placement under a high pressure. An Artic High is zero use if, as seems the case, the jet drives like a coach and horses through the eastern seaboard.

We need a proper Greenland High, or a mid-Atlantic block. At worst case a Svalbard High. Anything else is not sufficient for the UK to have a sustained cold spell.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm not looking in FL, and would expect all models to find it difficult at the min. We'll see if the low heads South East again or not later, fl is probably moving forward again though. Give it a few days or so.

Only problem is Alexis when we keep saying... Give it a few days, before we know it, the end of January as come and many on here will vacate the premises, and need 6 months in a rest home just to get over the experience. I hope to bring you all some joy this evening when the 46 rolls out.. I'm losing my patience with that model... Its one stubborn git... Nothing like the GFS that as multiple personalities, but I will try my best...

[jules216]

GEFS blowing that Atlantic low typical style around day 8. This is exactly that running up to period of storm activity in the Atlantic that @Roger J Smith usually alludes to. What will it do against that Arctic high in place? Probably advect more high pressure to Europe?

[mb018538]

With the seaweed and everything else not working, is it time to look to the MJO for some help?



Monday's update had some potential to head through phases 6/7/8....let's see what tomorrow's update shows!

[Weathizard]

26 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Is that this winter's myth? Seems so to me. 

We're back into zonality. By all means hit that ignore button but there's no point pretending otherwise. 

Zonal? Where?

Here is a zonal chart from 2015 

 

 

I don’t see any true zonal in any of the models at the minute, there’s weak lows on a buckled jet stalling because of high pressure to our east. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Weathizard

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Och well, we're up to 120 and there's no sign of any snow. Must be a lack of balloon data?!

    

 no not lack of balloon data I believe it’s more coverd restrictions level three

[weirpig]

My opinion  for what its worth   In the near term  up to day 8ish   on the GFS    It looks like a more atlantic flow     affecting the Uk   During this period  quite a high chance of  high rainfall amounts  and possibly maybe  the uk being affected by a deep low.   After  that?   No idea.

The ensembles  short term show  rainfall amounts may be an issue in this period   with the mean uppers around 0c    

 

Perts  from the Midlands 

Edited December 10, 2020 by weirpig

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Valleyboy said:

This Is the reason I don’t look beyond 5 days, it’s pointless.  These super computer generated models are no more accurate than a 5 year old scribbling on paper.  In fact I believe the long range forecasts have not improved greatly over the last 40 years.  Best to stick to 3 - 4 days out, as blocking type weather throws up easterlies at short notice.  The charts beyond 5 days are just for fun, last nights and today’s models prove that.

Sorry old bean, i think this is nonsense...

By using the anomaly charts you CAN pick up on the most likely pattern of ridging and troughing plus the mean upper flow out to 14 days.

I use this method daily, and whilst the detail may need adjusting (especially in very mobile patterns) the general pattern is there. Its possible to pick up settled spells ten days in advance, and indeed the great heatwave of August 2019 bank holiday was identified 12 days in advance.
The trick is not to take any one model run at face value, but to spot the trend, the anomalies do that which means you can hang the nearest operational run on that.

Even without using the anomaly charts, the more experienced are skilled at spotting emerging patterns...

Your comment " These super computer generated models are no more accurate than a 5 year old scribbling on paper. " is one you ought to remove, as its ridiculous

[swfc]

OK it's escalated on here. So without getting told of I don't actually think the current output is that bad all things all things considered. PV not having its own way across the nhp, meandering jet to a degree ete. Guess all subject to the normal caveats but no raging sw winds. Also the 6z gfs control in fi would have been well received if it was the op I suspect. Anyway see what the rest of the day brings within the time parameters allowed during said runs. Enjoy

Edited December 10, 2020 by swfc

[Polar Maritime]

Let's all be nice folk, It's nearly Christmas

[Chesil View]

Interesting to see the 06z ensembles dragging the mean decisively below average as we head into the christmas period. The Op running somewhat against the more general direction of travel in the ensembles.  Much as Mr Murr suggested last night the number of colder ens look to be increasing in that timeframe.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Toys are out of the pram again this morning I see.

So things seem to be still moving along in the right direction towards a potential cold spell with a landing date around 21/22 December onwards.

This is all way out of range of the reliable at the moment.

However blocking is appearing to our North left right and centre which is one of the main ingredients for a cold spell in the UK.

How that blocking interacts with Atlantic / jet stream will dictate whether we end up with a memorable cold spell or more of a damp squib.

I would argue the chances of a Christmas cold spell are greatly increased this year compared to the norm which makes for exciting viewing.

We have a few entries in the raffle this year and we are in with a shout of the star prize which is vastly different to last year when the raffle was cancelled due to lack of interest!! 

So sit back enjoy the rollercoaster look for the trends and don't get taken in by the wild swings of the op runs which at 10/11/12 days out (our period of interest) are going to change markedly from run to run.

Eyes down for the 12zs.  Let's hope they bring some festive cheer! 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Toys are out of the pram again this morning I see.

So things seem to be still moving along in the right direction towards a potential cold spell with a landing date around 21/22 December onwards.

This is all way out of range of the reliable at the moment.

However blocking is appearing to our North left right and centre which is one of the main ingredients for a cold spell in the UK.

How that blocking interacts with Atlantic / jet stream will dictate whether we end up with a memorable cold spell or more of a damp squib.

I would argue the chances of a Christmas cold spell are greatly increased this year compared to the norm which makes for exciting viewing.

We have a few entries in the raffle this year and we are in with a shout of the star prize which is vastly different to last year when the raffle was cancelled due to lack of interest!! 

So sit back enjoy the rollercoaster look for the trends and don't get taken in by the wild swings of the op runs which at 10/11/12 days out (our period of interest) are going to change markedly from run to run.

Eyes down for the 12zs.  Let's hope they bring some festive cheer! 

Yep, I know some folk don't like the GFS ensemble spaghetti charts but it tends to give good clues to general direction of traffic and they've dipped again from 21 Dec compared to the 0z run

We are in the game. Odds still against of course because of our climate but at least there's a chance of a wintry festive period

[Radiating Dendrite]

9 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep, I know some folk don't like the GFS ensemble spaghetti charts but it tends to give good clues to general direction of traffic and they've dipped again from 21 Dec compared to the 0z run

We are in the game. Odds still against of course because of our climate but at least there's a chance of a wintry festive period

Looks very cool and wet!

[Chesil View]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Looks very cool and wet!

Not on Pert 13 it isn't. That's the minus 15 Cobra run.

[Eagle Eye]

I see low's of blue, yellow highs too and I think to myself oh what a rainy Christmas. 

Just like the ones I've always known.

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Not on Pert 13  it isn't. That's the minus 15 Cobra run.

I see ans what is a Pert 13 and a Cobra rum

[BlueHedgehog074]

 

8 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Let's all be nice folk, It's nearly Christmas

Indeed. Room for various opinions on here. Fine to have a debate, but possible to be respectful at the same time. 

Models may not be filled with lots of yummy chocolates and pizzas (or whatever food that makes you drool with delight), though the models aren’t without possibilities for colder weather in the future. May have to put up with quite a lot of rain at first with Lows close by to us. But could pay off in the longer term. I think as some talked of before, wintry weather tends to be more likely around or just after Christmas. Personally can’t see this Winter being as uninspiring than the last one. Well, although not infeasible, it would be a challenge beat that one in terms of the lack of cold, snow and Northern blocking it had. The Vortex around this time last year was getting more into shape compared to now, so got that on our side. 

Christmas could be white, or it may not. What ever happens, worth not letting the weather ruin your big day (as much as a number on here would love to have something white). Especially as it could feel quite different for a lot of us with the pandemic about. Fortunately with that, a light at the end of the tunnel looks likely now

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

16 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep, I know some folk don't like the GFS ensemble spaghetti charts but it tends to give good clues to general direction of traffic and they've dipped again from 21 Dec compared to the 0z run

We are in the game. Odds still against of course because of our climate but at least there's a chance of a wintry festive period

Yep.  The op run looks just about the mildest run of the lot uppers wise for Christmas day.  Lots of ensembles taking a nose dive around Christmas there

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, XanderP007 said:

I see ans what is a Pert 13 and a Cobra rum

Pert 13 is GFS ensemble run number 13.  Which show upper air temps approaching minus 15. Cobra refers the govt committee that meets in national emergencies.

[Eagle Eye]

15 days to go, I don't know anyone who is in the middle of a ramper and a downer

So here I go, I think that there is a medium chance of Snow typically like last year and that Models could be radically wrong outside of 5 days. 

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS graph looks decent - anyone got the full SP please?

Edited December 10, 2020 by feb1991blizzard