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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Very good mean charts tonight. 

    The 18z nearly there with retrogession of pv at the end of the run. 

    If that occurs it seems inevitable that a Scandinavian trough would pull a cold ne flow this way. 

    Fingers crossed we see that Arctic high continue to hold and strengthen. 

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    Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

    Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

    Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

    Some cracking ensembles among the 18z suite. Most ending up cold - some taking a longer route than others. Trends going our way at the moment if you’re into proper winter weather. Overall - a good end to the day! ❄️ ️ 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    It wasnt the best but the operational goes off the AO scale 18z

    BF4AC9DC-0034-479D-A4FD-5319A7BD1819.thumb.jpeg.d7b9b0626eee1e59abc7271b90618a7c.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    let's take a look at the mean anomaly for the GEFS out in towards day 12/13...

    image.thumb.png.fd60c7fdc3ef258a208b3176f80c0a50.png

     

    Getting there

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Extremely zonal 😉

    Yep...

    for the Pacific 😏

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Very good mean charts tonight. 

    The 18z nearly there with retrogession of pv at the end of the run. 

    If that occurs it seems inevitable that a Scandinavian trough would pull a cold ne flow this way. 

    Fingers crossed we see that Arctic high continue to hold and strengthen. 

    It has strengthened on every run Phil☺️ 

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    47 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Well that chart would tie in with what the ec46 dayer has been hinting at for Xmas week. Let’s see what the update is from the ec46 tomorrow. 

    Incidently the CFS charts were fairly keen on a cold spell in early December several weeks beforehand which turned out correct! I remember seeing several charts on the 0z to 18z runs in early and mid November ranging between 1st December and 6th December for a cold spell (the week I was meant to be in the Scottish Highlands- now rebooked for 6th March)

     

    But like 99% of people here I'm hoping its wrong for Christmas day on this run!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Lets see how advanced the Siberian trough has evolved over the last three days on the EPS...

    07th December at 240                            08th December at 216                         09th December at 192

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.494383034689ee820332e0a79bc55c05.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.b2a5688772f1040980476e0aeedaff3f.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.thumb.png.7d052b8b03f46c82e2d2657bcc65b2ce.png

    you can clearly see the trough extension out of Siberia heading SW towards NE Europe,also heights gaining into the Atlantic/Greenland area.

     

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The mean starting to come down over the festive/Christmas period.

    graphe3_1000_266_32___.thumb.png.e217d3b15a88ede4f965037c74c3e6ff.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Excellent stuff guys and thanks for waking me up from my slumber GFS.. Absolute crackers on these ens tonight, and I feel they are growing in numbers. I think this place is missing a Boom... Its been ages since we had one.. Certain charts deserve it, and some of these ensembles most definitely do... 😘

    gens-2-1-324.png

    gens-2-0-324.png

    gens-2-0-360.png

    gens-3-1-252.png

    gens-3-0-252.png

    gens-9-1-348.png

    gens-9-0-360.png

    gens-12-1-240.png

    gens-15-1-360.png

    gens-15-0-372.png

    tenor-21.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    This the CFS MJO forecast is likely part of the reason why its most recent run is not showing as great a charts (for cold) as the likes of GFS. Everything at very low amplitude and around the COD according to this update, let's see if it flips on the next update

    CFSO_phase_full.gif

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I have just ordered a snow plough for Christmas off Ebay for 5 quid...

    e4b5aef4f3759173c452c11f75c1a554.thumb.jpg.5c6fbb4b9cdbb4582baa574043d3a6e3.jpg

    i could do with something more appropriate if the gfs nails what it has been showing...

    mercedes-autonomous-snow-plow.thumb.jpg.15ebe4da9302c165f741a06d4775d356.jpg😜

    Great post's today/tonight,this is why i love this thread with hopefully a build up to a white Christmas 

    there hasn't been many of those about

    i am going to take a punt at the bookies tomorrow

    night all.

    P.S @Paul,no hunt for cold thread this season?

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    UKMO 144

    UN144-21.GIF?10-05

    Something is afoot.

    Not sure if it will turn out good or bad yet but I prefer the separation of lows instead of them phasing into one trough a la GFS

    gfsnh-0-144.png

     

    GFS has given up completely and decided to nuke the block - It's the only way to be sure

    gfsnh-0-186.png

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS 0z is just pitiful to watch..

    Flooding will be an issue if that run transpires...

    UKMO looks slightly more appealing at 144 but the lows will probably end up slowing up near our shores soon after ...

    47 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    UKMO 144

    UN144-21.GIF?10-05

    Something is afoot.

    Not sure if it will turn out good or bad yet but I prefer the separation of lows instead of them phasing into one trough a la GFS

    gfsnh-0-144.png

     

    GFS has given up completely and decided to nuke the block - It's the only way to be sure

    gfsnh-0-186.png

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    GFS 0z is just pitiful to watch..

    Flooding will be an issue if that run transpires...

    UKMO looks slightly more appealing at 144 but the lows will probably end up slowing up near our shores soon after ...

     

    It isn't that good!

    Merry Xmas 🤣

    gfsnh-0-360.png

    The good thing is, it is about as likely as blizzards.

     

    Around 50% of GFS ensembles keep the lows distinctly separate and generate a small Atlantic ridge like UKMO albeit there is scatter among those solutions as well.

    Basically anything could happen before Xmas but any road to cold is not going to be straight forward.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    Not great, but at least the low finally moves through at the end and hopefully the heights can build to our NW.

    image.thumb.png.8365be38d0746da94b0b891925e1f97e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    GFS 0z is just pitiful to watch..

    Flooding will be an issue if that run transpires...

    UKMO looks slightly more appealing at 144 but the lows will probably end up slowing up near our shores soon after ...

     

    Yes nw 0z looks a bit woeful this morning. The ukmo isn't has as yesterday tbh and not sure what to make of it🤔🤔🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    5 hours ago, phil nw. said:

    Fingers crossed we see that Arctic high continue to hold and strengthen. 

     

    It has vanished on the GFS 0z.

    It'll be interesting to see how the 0z ensembles shape up in FI. The 18z had some really cold ones, the first time there's been a properly cold cluster:

    53703781_Screenshot2020-12-10at04_57_00.thumb.png.fdaca8b72027befd4368af48ce5d1ecc.png

     

    The problem is that imho anything past T168 is next to useless on the GFS these days. I've been monitoring it for months and it's all over the place with constant yoyo-ing.

    I'm not sure if the word 'zonal' is inflammatory, although there's no reason why it should be especially given where we live, but let's just say that in the reliable timeframe we are in for a week of more Atlantic-influenced weather ... it certainly felt that way to me yesterday with the wind sweeping across the clifftops here in Poldark country. 

    Edited by West is Best
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    8 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Yes, but if we had of had super computers spitting our weather forecasts as we do now, then we would certainly have known a significant cold spell was coming. 

    I just don't think things suddenly 'pop' out of nowhere. The models can flip and flap in FI but within the nearer time the changes are more nuanced and usually fairly well signposted.

    I,d totally gree with that RD. Mind you even then  there,d still have been those picking up on mild solutions in the ensembles and telling us it would be zonality all the way to the end of Feb.😉

    And the Meto outlook in Dec 62 would still have been as cautious as ever. I can just imagine it. ' towards Xmas winds may turn easterly or North easterly with temps dropping below average and showers becoming wintry especially over high ground"😀

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    32 minutes ago, West is Best said:

     

    It has vanished on the GFS 0z.

    It'll be interesting to see how the 0z ensembles shape up in FI. The 18z had some really cold ones, the first time there's been a properly cold cluster:

    53703781_Screenshot2020-12-10at04_57_00.thumb.png.fdaca8b72027befd4368af48ce5d1ecc.png

     

    The problem is that imho anything past T168 is next to useless on the GFS these days. I've been monitoring it for months and it's all over the place with constant yoyo-ing.

    I'm not sure if the word 'zonal' is inflammatory, although there's no reason why it should be especially given where we live, but let's just say that in the reliable timeframe we are in for a week of more Atlantic-influenced weather ... it certainly felt that way to me yesterday with the wind sweeping across the clifftops here in Poldark country. 

     

    Certainly not inflammatory and call it as you see  it but I think there may be some mixing up of Zonal and unsettled/windy.

    We can have a zonal pattern and be relatively settled in England if the lows pass N of Scotland as is fairly typical when the jet is more aligned toward us then we can get wet and windy weather but the lows pass through quickly (within 24 hours typically) but with another waiting in the wings all fed by the PV usually located around Greenland.

    I can understand people saying Zonal when they are getting wet and windy weather but for us it refers to the W/E flow of lows. When that flow is interrupted by a high pressure cell or ridge the jet buckles or splits which causes the low pressures to stall and/or disrupt and split energy - especially if the block contains very cold air.

    Below is our current situation with a block to our E stalling the Atlantic lows, note how the jet has "broken"

    Blocked

    gfsnh-5-156.pnggfsnh-0-156.png

     

    And here is a fairly typical zonal pattern with jet powering across the Atlantic and UK and into Scandi

    Zonal

    gfsnh-2013121000-5-120.pnggfsnh-2013121000-0-120.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    ECM 144 is more GFS than UKMO but with some differences.

    ECH1-144.GIF?10-12

     

    All this talk of zonal is jinxing things 😜

    ECM 192, Arctic high having little influence and Scandi ridge much weaker, heights over Greenland lower. Just the hint of a ridge in the Atlantic

    ECH1-192.GIF?10-12

     

    The changes across the output seems to be pointing to a change of direction which may not be all bad.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Pert 5 would be bring us all a ❄️Very Merry Wintry Christmas 🎅🏻🌲☃️🥶❄️ 

    image.thumb.png.2e15a6bd889a7892e4b8e0c90444d4e7.pngimage.thumb.png.bb60d5d3b6c1967225e8d074227205e0.png

     

    image.thumb.png.8963a51fd99aa97284c0173261ed7829.png

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