Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Kentspur]

8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Looks like someone is still wishing for a heatwave for Christmas then it's probably more likely anyway 

Everyones fave model the CFS also now backs up a BBQ Christmas

[Eskimo]

It feels like the excitement this forum went through during the 'that ECM' moment back in 2012 before some mammary glands took a trip on an elevator at the last hurdle. Let's hope not

Edited December 9, 2020 by Eskimo

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Not often you see sub -32c uppers on a chart

Not there, I’ll give you that!

[Valleyboy]

3 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Rolf the gfs just doesn't have a clue what to do with energy going under a block. That dartboard low will never happen. But what we can take from tonight’s gfs is that for once we could have some proper cold weather for Christmas. 

We will need to wait 7 days before getting anywhere near knowing what Christmas will be like, the models are not handling it well and easterlies tend to show up within 3 - 4 days.

[Allseasons-Si]

Hay guys,just joined the party....

but i have got to tell that over the last few days,these are the best charts(in fl) i have seen since well... in a decade (2010)

and back then they where showing similar

i am not saying that we will get a cold spell out of this but it is looking increasingly likely.

 

 

[terrier]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Everyones fave model the CFS also now backs up a BBQ Christmas

Well that chart would tie in with what the ec46 dayer has been hinting at for Xmas week. Let’s see what the update is from the ec46 tomorrow. 

[SMU]

Look forward to some more of these runs cropping up this week

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

We will need to wait 7 days before getting anywhere near knowing what Christmas will be like, the models are not handling it well and easterlies tend to show up within 3 - 4 days.

Sadly easterlies these days only seem to come from SSW events, and you can spot them weeks in advance (although admittedly some of them don’t happen), we’ve got our eye on one in early February after a SSW early to mid Jan, why not join us in the chase?  

This year may be the exception that proves the rule, if the 18z is even close...hope so...

Edited December 9, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Paul_1978]

42 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

lovely jubbly

Only 42 more GFS runs to go

[SMU]

NB The increase in Higher pressure over Greenland in the 10 day means for 18z

[chionomaniac]

Just seen the 18z. What potential hey? It seems that perhaps the background signals are aligning. Here’s hoping so. 

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

It feels like the excitement this forum went through during the 'that ECM' moment back in 2012 before some mammary glands took a trip on an elevator at the last hurdle. Let's hope not

I've been waiting for that low to distrupt SE, I'm not looking past that. The evolution seems right, and could well move forward, now it's found. Although it was the pub run. I'm hoping it will make it into other models in the next couple of days.

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look forward to some more of these runs cropping up this week

Yes and before day ten as well,there is a few good one's in there to boot too Steve.

[Daniel*]

I’ve never seen a chart like this and trust me... I’ve seen millions of them over years.

[damianslaw]

Brief comment on GFS tonight, what a arctic high, almost looks like a hole over the Pole. It's a plausible evolution if we see a break behind the Atlantic trough and no link back to the PV. Plausible until late stages where it loses the plot..

[georgiedre]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’ve never seen a chart like this and trust me... I’ve seen millions of them over years.

High pressure covers 5/6th of the photo hahah

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run is opening heights up towards Greenland with troughs going under

 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’ve never seen a chart like this and trust me... I’ve seen millions of them over years.

An oddity in exclecis delivered by GFS 18z..

[Catacol]

26 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

All this blocking and we end up with a SW feed  

Hehe a 955mb dartboard low on a wall covered in above average heights. Gotta love the gfs overcooking of Atlantic lows....

Been busy today...but nothing much to add from yesterday and earlier today. We still have an expectation of amplification final third of the month, we still have forcing on the vortex resulting in a split, and we still have a forecast for a steep reduction of westerlies in the strat going into January. Models are starting to pick up on the pre disposed setup for blocking to break into the area in and around Griceland. The rest is details that will only become clear at less than 120h. In and around Xmas week is where interest will intensify - in the short term we must endure a bit of Atlantic muck as the trough breaks and bounces off our resident ScEuro block right overhead. The fact that blocking appears to hold the whip hand over Atlantic energy is a change from many recent years, even if it might not look great through the early morning window next week.

Much ground for optimism if cold and snow potential is your thing...and it’s only Dec 9. 

[Mike Poole]

GEFS 18z mean is just as good as the ECM mean, GEFS first (T240):

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

High pressure covers 5/6th of the photo hahah

It’s crap for us but it looks like something you could see in May when the high latitudes blocking is much more frequent as the high latitudes warm and no vortex. It’s very intriguing.
 

Undoubtedly there’s going to be major cold in the mid latitudes in Northern Hemisphere the current forecast is for NH to be coolest it has been all of 2020 so far in a winter month that is pretty unheard of in modern era. Related to Arctic high severing one lobe of vortex to Eurasia and the other North America bringing severe cold. If cold managed to come our way, well we would know it.

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run is setting up what could be epic...

 

[Decemberof2010]

P12!!!

 

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by Decemberof2010

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run is setting up what could be epic...

 

Extremely zonal

[phil nw.]

Very good mean charts tonight. 

The 18z nearly there with retrogession of pv at the end of the run. 

If that occurs it seems inevitable that a Scandinavian trough would pull a cold ne flow this way. 

Fingers crossed we see that Arctic high continue to hold and strengthen.