Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

does it  ?  looks pretty solid to me

the atlantic profile on gfs and ecm at day 7 look strangely similar 

 

[booferking]

Someone planted a bomb in that big ferris wheel low on ecm 144hr net result secondary lows scatter everywhere 168hr  but looks like we need another bomb planted 192hr here goes let's see what happen 216hr might do the trick.

[Zak M]

12z ECM @192 looks almost the same @168. You can see the -24/28c uppers start to crawl into the Europe view at Meteociel.

Look at that sexy donut in the NH view... now I'm hungry...

Edited December 9, 2020 by Zak M

[sheikhy]

Something is stirrring!!would not be surprised to see more upgrades between 120 and 144 hours tomorrow!!all 3 models look better this evening!!that arctic high looks a belter!!!❄

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

does it  ?  looks pretty solid to me

the atlantic profile on gfs and ecm at day 7 look strangely similar 

Well I know what one I prefer, one has low going under the other over.

[Mike Poole]

I think the JMA T192 is the solution that we actually want:

At that range this, and many other possibilities in play, but this drains the arctic high on the other side of the hemisphere and enhances heights near Greenland - T216 frame due about 11pm I think, if anyone’s hooked!!

[KTtom]

The 850 profile speaks volumes, too many shortwaves north of the uk providing an inpregnable wall to the cold being drawn south.

 

[mb018538]

Well hello there Mr Arctic high....

[Tim Bland]

Looks good around the Arctic but decided average for Europe ...

[mountain shadow]

All so near and yet so far.

Slow burner it looks.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like the interest would come days 12-14

[blizzard81]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Looks like the interest would come days 12-14

I wouldn't be surprised to see a south westerly develop from that just in time for Christmas. The azores high is ridging into Iberia. 

[Zak M]

P10 on the 12z GFS is a beaut! How about that for a Christmas present

   

[swfc]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like the interest would come days 12-14

Yes low going south east, ridge behind and game on. Well in theory

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like the interest would come days 12-14

How? Not saying it wouldn’t just interested in your thoughts. TIA

 

Have to say. I prefer Ukmo at T144.

Edited December 9, 2020 by That ECM

[booferking]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

All so near and yet so far.

Slow burner it looks.

Are no burner at all, window is open but once that closes it could be curtains for a while, them lows just keep coming across the Atlantic merging together everytime we look like getting some sort of amplification in Atlantic that Arctic high wont last for ever.

[sheikhy]

Was actually expecting a better chart at 240 hours!!ah well its only the beginning!!❄

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

How? Not saying it wouldn’t just interested in your thoughts. TIA

Atlantic trough clears ESE (however slowly) followed by ridging in behind, which could be aided by the Arctic HP. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see a south westerly develop from that just in time for Christmas. The azores high is ridging into Iberia. 

It's great using the northern hemisphere charts but sometimes it is more informative to use the European view. In this case I use the European view as opposed to the northern hemisphere chart. I really can't see anything cold coming in anytime soon after this. 

[swfc]

Looking at most output today you'd have to say it's been a decent set. Ukmo and ec look very close at 144 hours and gfs looks pretty Concistent imo. OK I've just crippled the 18 z. Il get my coat and

[Skullzrulerz]

31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The ECM at t+168 does!

This must deliver surely. 

Sorry but I'm not convinced yet as for one we still have the Azores high to make do and that's not including any European high pressure

If there's not cross model agreement then I would keep my expectations low 

I'm not saying it will not happen but as seen many many times in the past few years we have seen this roller coaster and only to get Unlucky in the end 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's great using the northern hemisphere charts but sometimes it is more informative to use the European view. In this case I use the European view as opposed to the northern hemisphere chart. I really can't see anything cold coming in anytime soon after this. 

Why would you use the European view when upstream is so critical to developments further along? The upstream pattern will eventually dictate what happens downstream, to a decent degree.

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Atlantic trough clears ESE (however slowly) followed by ridging in behind, which could be aided by the Arctic HP. 

Theres an opportunity  around 144hr 168hr more separation between Atlantic lows and we could be in business early on something like the Jma Ecm was close maybe next run?

[blizzard81]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Why would you use the European view when upstream is so critical to developments further along? The upstream pattern will eventually dictate what happens downstream, to a decent degree.

With regards to the northern hemisphere charts in this instance, the progression of the atlantic low from day 9 to 10 does not show it moving south east. It moves slightly north. This in tandem with the azores high ridging in is the reason I can't see the low moving south east into Europe. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

With regards to the northern hemisphere charts in this instance, the progression of the atlantic low from day 9 to 10 does not show it moving south east. It moves slightly north. This in tandem with the azores high ridging in is the reason I can't see the low moving south east into Europe. 

Its overall movement will be ESE, even if it spins around a bit on itself as it approaches the UK. That's because heights to the N of it will eventually increase