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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    How often do we see positive height anomalies like this to our N?

    gfsnh-12-294.png?12

    But of course we have to see positive heights to our SW at the same time as the spoiler.

    Very frustrating, except none of this has happened yet so better to be happy we are in the fight at least.

    We can forget that we are normally staring down the barrel of endless zonality this time of year.

    Chins up!

    Whether we like it or not, it's an Atlantic dominated set up so on the ground at least, it's zonal weather even if looking at the charts on a larger scale shows its not all it seems. 

    Either way, when we are seeing people looking at GFS FI for cold, you know there is no real excitement in the output. I would love for the Arctic high to come into play and it might but there does seem a reluctance to drop much polar air into Scandinavia. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I think I see a Greenland block on the horizon

    Could do with a Genoa  low at the same time 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Well all that and a glancing blow down north sea🤣🤣🤣🤣🏃🏃🏃fi around the 144-168  mark imo

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The problem for me is this is all deja vu:

    d6>>1400760901_ink(2).thumb.png.52cf1d16206c04bd0435c95a6a5c077d.png d121489181087_ink(4).thumb.png.a2f123e6b4b6a6097d6da167d3ce9961.png

    d6 we had the same synoptic and earlier FI runs had the spoiler/trigger low doing what the one at d12 is doing, but now has it sliding on the jet killing the ridge! A lot of runs for that to falter and this does look a repeating underlying pattern so we have to be wary? Not that it amounted to much on the 12z and took forever to get nowhere!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Well all that and a glancing blow down north sea🤣🤣🤣🤣🏃🏃🏃fi around the 144-168  mark imo

    All that for a toppler 😉 jeez I'm going for a lie down back in an hour for ECM 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGFS 12 z for Christmas Eve

    Father Christmas brings the Northerly with him on 24th according to GFS 12z

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    In the politest possible way, those E European heights need to do one...Ensemble mean anomaly 192 hrs-

    image.thumb.png.c4e675f5ca93333f874e3475815d1869.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    In the politest possible way, those E European heights need to do one...Ensemble mean anomaly 192 hrs-

    image.thumb.png.c4e675f5ca93333f874e3475815d1869.png

    Where is that hide the pain Harold expresion

    IMG_20201208_082425.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    4 minutes ago, SNOWING35 said:

    Northerlies dont do much just run down the north sea these days and last a couple of days.

    That's because we can't get a true ridge into Greenland nowadays for a northerly to sustain itself. The models will always in the longer term produce a Greenland high but as we get closer to the time, they water down because too much energy goes into the ridge then run by run, weaken the ridge which mean for us, a much weaker northerly.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A definite improvement on the 06Z... though, without some tweaking, we'll no' get any closer to the cigar, than being left smouldering in the ashtray!🥱😁

    h850t850eu.png    h500slp.png

     Does one detect the tantalising aroma of Maxwell House?😱

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    A definite improvement on the 06Z... though, without some tweaking, we'll no' get any closer to the cigar, than being left smouldering in the ashtray!🥱😁

    h850t850eu.png    h500slp.png

     Does one detect the tantalising aroma of Maxwell House?😱

    Yes with respect to him its like stevie wonder doing a jigsaw getting all the bits to fall for a UK cold spell 😏😏😏

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Finally see a bit of amplification in the Atlantic on the GFS that unlocks the doors to the building heights and cold to the north.

    The trend for the Artic heights has been evident, but the key to getting that cold air to our little patch is that Atlantic ridge.

    Lots to play for!! 
     

    6102D1F5-D505-4784-9CA5-D8D2DF272625.thumb.png.2beb86dfc52a41e1db10a091bfad9a08.pngBCF2A8DA-281A-439A-8074-02051605CEE7.thumb.png.962b4cd5c0d2b34d2762f75d6f1572ff.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Very interesting runs lately. We need to keep an eye on the building of the arctic high in the making right now, and the orientation and positioning of it over the next few days. 

    If we see some kind of link up of heights forming near Iceland/Greenland, we could then be beginning to crank the gas up for something pretty special. 

    I’d still take caution at the moment however, over getting too excited. I’ve seen these promising build ups melt down like a pack of cards in the past! 2012 will never leave my mind for that reason. Fingers crossed! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS control run manages an Atlantic ridge

     

    gensnh-0-1-168.png

    And arrives here at day 10 - so close.

    gensnh-0-1-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    That se euro high anomaly has been a strong feature on all recent eps output - it ain't going anywhere until day 12 at the earliest imo ….whether we can mange to eek out a pattern that brings cold to nw Europe with that feature sat there is unlikely (not impossible ).  as has looked the case for a fair while - any possibilities of deep cold look like being after 20th and potentially drifting out towards xmas now ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    That se euro high anomaly has been a strong feature on all recent eps output - it ain't going anywhere until day 12 at the earliest imo ….whether we can mange to eek out a pattern that brings cold to nw Europe with that feature sat there is unlikely (not impossible ).  as has looked the case for a fair while - any possibilities of deep cold look like being after 20th and potentially drifting out towards xmas now ...

    I'm sure proper cold arriving around Christmas would suit most.

    Especially me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    That se euro high anomaly has been a strong feature on all recent eps output - it ain't going anywhere until day 12 at the earliest imo ….whether we can mange to eek out a pattern that brings cold to nw Europe with that feature sat there is unlikely (not impossible ).  as has looked the case for a fair while - any possibilities of deep cold look like being after 20th and potentially drifting out towards xmas now ...

    Still there at day 11 on GEFS

    image.thumb.png.4210948dbc43e567462091187d81be31.png

    Getting a bit twitchy this evening that the Arctic pattern may flatten before those heights are scrubbed...

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