Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Low going up west coast of UK at 270

Proper heights Greenland bound though..

[chionomaniac]

I think I see a Greenland block on the horizon

[ITSY]

I hate to have become one of those frame by frame posters (no judgement, the drama is what makes it) - it's because I've got to go out imminently - but again we're bumping against too many European heights. The pesky Iberian high noses back in to fill the Eurasian void. Someone make him go away! IF that materialises the risk is we wind up with our cold being dragged out west, forcing a Westerly based -NAO (no good for us). Still, an improvement on the 06z and it's the overall trend that matters. Should be some cracking ens members...Keenly await the ECM to see how it handles this

[Mucka]

How often do we see positive height anomalies like this to our N?

But of course we have to see positive heights to our SW at the same time as the spoiler.

Very frustrating, except none of this has happened yet so better to be happy we are in the fight at least.

We can forget that we are normally staring down the barrel of endless zonality this time of year.

Chins up!

Edited December 9, 2020 by Mucka

[TSNWK]

Guys.. upstream seems to good and has been for what seems ages.. it's those god darn stubborn heights over Europe... 

How the heck do we shove um away..?

[nick sussex]

Lots of cold air to the north and ne  on the GFS 12 hrs run.

Tantalizingly close ! Trough disruption and how far southwest  the Arctic high ridges this far out is bound to change and very difficult for the models to get right at longer range .

 

 

[warrenb]

Classic west based -NAO

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think I see a Greenland block on the horizon

Ahh but do you mean you see the GFS showing one by run end, or do you actually envisage a real life one?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Guys.. upstream seems to good and has been for what seems ages.. it's those god darn stubborn heights over Europe... 

How the heck do we shove um away..?

if we don't have a deal perhaps they wont affect us  ………...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, warrenb said:

Classic west based -NAO

It's not west based at all...the core of the ridge is between Iceland and Greenland. With a west based -NAO the core of heights would be west of Greenland.

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

 

First sign of the jet streaking up the west side of Greenland, if we can get it to swing round it will bring the cold air with it,

The Jet is doing it upmost to deflect the cold away.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Classic west based -NAO

not finished yet ………  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The GHP looks yo me that it will extend out SE’wards and we’ll join the party.  That LP to SW of Greenland is going nowhere east

 

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

Those heights to our SE. This is what we want -the cold is ready and waiting

[TSNWK]

Just now, bluearmy said:

if we don't have a deal perhaps they wont affect us  ………...

Hehe.  I had actually thought that! as well! maybe one for Boris this evening..

[Cheshire Freeze]

Might be worth putting some money on a white Christmas by the way. Not the first run that has suggested cold landing around Christmas Eve-Christmas Day.

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ahh but do you mean you see the GFS showing one by run end, or do you actually envisage a real life one?

Real life if we get a few more pieces into play

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Might be worth putting some money on a white Christmas by the way. Not the first run that has suggested cold landing around Christmas Eve-Christmas Day.

Got 8/1 for Norwich....put it on in Nov.

 

BFTP

[danm]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The GHP looks yo me that it will extend out SE’wards and we’ll join the party.  That LP to SW of Greenland is going nowhere east

 

BFTP

Yep, that is definitely not a west based -NAO, however heights to our SE are holding us back on that particular chart. Things still look very interesting. 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Classic west based -NAO

Nowhere near never mind classic is what I see.  But maybe in wrong ? Can you please share rational as I'm learning all the time

[Day 10]

Finally, the snail begins to leave the building here comes the cold...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Yep, that is definitely not a west based -NAO, however heights to our SE are holding us back on that particular chart. Things still look very interesting. 

They are slowing the transition, but the high is extending SE...easterly/NE’ly for all by the end

 

BFTP

[SNOWING35]

As a cold, snowy fan I hate the outlook over the next week or so. Looking likely mild, drab sw will blow in with more rain. In Leeds it's been cold but just very wet over the last few days. As I get older the drab winters annoy me more, anyone else the same?.

[mountain shadow]

Is there anything that might move the pattern along quicker as I suffer from high blood pressure.

[Tim Bland]

A nice northerly just in time for Xmas