Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What a giggle the latest ecm 0z is!!...just a loop of low pressures circling each other in the North Atlantic with the UK port of call (or near by) before pushing north...all the cold air is well and truly locked towards the Arctic. Shows you don't even need a raging jet stream to keep any cold away as we experienced in December 2018 and start of January 2019.

6z GFS out to t+240 and exactly the same. Lets see if the troughing can push East in FI. 

[IDO]

On this run the lack of a sufficient wedge over Greenland and the Arctic high instead is drawn to a high over Siberia:

We lose the potential of the Arctic high on this run in the short-medium term. This is the problem, so many pieces of the puzzle to get in place when the NH is being driven by the ebb and flow of trop features! 

Certainly there seems a synchronicity to the upcoming pattern and we have lost the entropy; simply "waiting for Godot"!

[GeordieX9v]

Is there a happy ending coming to the GFS?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep....zonal pattern, UK loses. Blocked pattern, UK loses.

Looking ever more likely that a pretty mild run up to xmas is going to happen. Can we catch a break just in time for a more seasonal big day, or will it join the list of most recent Christmases, a drab mild affair.

The longer range EC as pretty much nailed this pattern tbh... We certainly don't want to be playing a waiting game for several weeks here, because if that NH profile gets it's act together we will be in trouble... But let's not go there just yet... Still far to early in the season. 

Edited December 9, 2020 by MATT☀️

[KTtom]

10 minutes ago, GeordieX9v said:

Is there a happy ending coming to the GFS?

Only for the Daffs im afraid!

[STRiZZY]

10 minutes ago, GeordieX9v said:

Is there a happy ending coming to the GFS?

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, GeordieX9v said:

Is there a happy ending coming to the GFS?

Nope.. if I look at that the phased low s out the west will stumble around and keep pumping up Azores high. It's a shocking view there.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, MATT said:

The longer range EC as pretty much nailed this pattern tbh... We certainly don't want to be playing a waiting game for several weeks here, because if that NH profile gets it's act together we will be in trouble... But let's not go there just yet... Still far to early in the season. 

We need to see a  turnaround in the modelling over the next couple of days because Dec,or certainly the next 10 days to 2 weeks,  is beginning to look both a washout and a write off for coldies...

[SqueakheartLW]

Finally got to look at the GFS 18z Op, Control and Members today. Not so many colder options showing on that run but have still picked out a few of the best Christmas Eve ones I could find that could lead to either a cold Christmas Day or have potential to be cold by Christmas Day. As always the least cold option first to coldest last

GFS 18z Member 14

The least cold option in terms of uppers. More of a cold and seasonable option this one with cold and frosty weather for Christmas

GFS 18z Member 5

A potential Arctic northerly here, although not a particularly cold one with just the -5 isotherm showing for miles before anything much colder. If the high pressure doesn't topple it could at least mean a cold Christmas Day with a risk of snow showers in the north

GFS 18z Member 26

A different variety of cold potential showing up here with the classic cold zonality option. The -5 isotherm is very much covering the UK here and the greatest snow threat here is in the north and on high ground. Not the best setup for the S and E however

GFS 18z Member 18

Another variant of a potential Arctic northerly here but this one has colder air involved than the first one did but as with the first option it all depends on that high pressure not toppling us back into Atlantic westerlies again

GFS 18z Member 3

A potential beast from the east unleashed scenario brewing here on this Christmas Eve chart and there's plenty of cold air waiting to the east to flood in if the pattern can stick. Could make for a very cold Christmas Day if the pattern holds.

GFS 18z Member 22

Finally the coldest and snowiest option, at least away from southern UK which just sees rain here. A great chart for central UK in particular with those cold uppers and no doubt a wrap around frontal feature delivering snow to these parts. The north likely to be brighter with a snow shower risk for E Scotland

Summary

Although only 6 options here this time of a possible 32 there is still potential here to get some colder conditions in by Christmas and with the 5 days of "freedom" we have been allowed then it is possible we could have a 5 day nationwide blizzard between 23rd and 27th December

[Cold Winter]

I have a feeling we’re going to be chasing the T384 chart again on this 6z

[jules216]

The GEFS mean is actually better then on 0Z. Control run looks interesting

[mountain shadow]

I've seen some bad runs in my time, but that 6z takes the biscuit.

Stagnant low rolling around the mid Atlantic with 3 weeks of South Westerlies. Bitter cold tantalisingly close to the North East but with High pressure over Southern Europe, no way of getting it here.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

We need to see a  turnaround in the modelling over the next couple of days because Dec,or certainly the next 10 days to 2 weeks,  is beginning to look both a washout and a write off for coldies...

Hi mate, hope your keeping OK.. I hate coming on here to bring updates of the EC when it points to nothing happening, it drives me crazy.. But that's the way it's looking just lately, and has been for some time.. For me we need to see 3 major players on board.. The 46,a positive Glosea, and some subtle hints from Exeter of incoming significant cold... And at present we have non of the above!! That's a concern. But like I keep saying, it's early days... But as you're aware mate things can and do run away very quickly in these current UK winters. Turn the clock back 30 or 40 years, people wouldn't be surprised of incoming cold and snow... They would simply say... Its Winter and to be expected... Now we all treat  a cold snap like its the Holy Grail!! And how we need such amazing pieces to fit into such an intricate puzzle for it to come off... Good lord bring back the 80s..but like you say the prognosis for the next couple of weeks is a little suspect.. We need January to deliver something, because once you get to February, especially later on, those special ingredients start to go against us for obvious reasons.. Enjoy your Xmas. 

[Cold Winter]

If you’re a fan of wind, rain and repeat then look no further than the GFS 6z ️ 
 

On a serious note, it’s one run. Let’s see what the ensembles say and the rest of the day’s output. Trends are what we’re looking for (and from my POV not ones that follow the 6z!!).

Edited December 9, 2020 by Cold Winter

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I've seen some bad runs in my time, but that 6z takes the biscuit.

Stagnant low rolling around the mid Atlantic with 3 weeks of South Westerlies. Bitter cold tantalisingly close to the North East but with High pressure over Southern Europe, no way of getting it here.

 

Hope that run is a mild outlier then

[northwestsnow]

Thanks Matt, hope you are well...

Thinking positively, let's hope we can see some improvements over the coming days ...

Its possible of course....

We need it,the models over the last 5 days or so have been pretty grim viewing.

We  also need that blocking stretching through SE Europe to sod off ,sharpish ...

Edited December 9, 2020 by northwestsnow

[dragan]

I got laughed at and beaten last week for suggesting we are heading for atlantic driven weather for the next 3/4 weeks....

Nothing has made me change my mind unfortunately looking at the latest runs.

Edited December 9, 2020 by dragan

[Portsmouth Sun]

Just now, dragan said:

I got laughed at and beaten last week for suggesting we are heading for atlantic driven weather for the next 3/4 weeks....

Nothing has made me change my mind unfortunately looking at he latest runs.

Unfortunately lots on here do not like reading the truth and believe a D10 when its showing cold.  Reality is a lot different.  

The run up to Christmas looks like a standard mild cloudy/rainy spell with winds from a milder direction.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Model discussion please - not "I told you" type posts! They will disappear. 

Thanks ever so much!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, dragan said:

I got laughed at and beaten last week for suggesting we are heading for atlantic driven weather for the next 3/4 weeks....

Nothing has made me change my mind unfortunately looking at the latest runs.

I didn't laugh at you mate for making that conclusion.. We are all entitled to our opinions on here, and all of us should be respected for them, even if it means going against what we would like to see. Back to the drawing board and prepare for the next chase I will be doing after Xmas... I can't be doing it this side of Xmas, I have the in laws coming... And the only reason I didn't want to see a major snow event come the big day, was the fear of having them stranded here for longer...

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Either you have the rosiest spectacles ever or you are reading those charts incorrectly I’m afraid. Firstly the GFS chart at the top is the 850hpa temp which is about 1500m asl. It shows temps in the south around freezing at 1500m so probably 8-10c on the ground. Even at 1500m there is no minus 10 showing away from the Arctic?! 
 

second chart from ECM is an anomaly chart. This is the deviation from average, it shows average temps in most areas and slightly above for Scotland, so again 8-10c. I’m not sure how you arrive at a white Christmas from either of these charts?! 

Since when has anyone thought that I know what I'm talking about. 

[Cold Winter]

21 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

I have a feeling we’re going to be chasing the T384 chart again on this 6z

Scrap that, even the GFS couldn’t find us an eye candy 384 chart to drool over! Someone get it some mulled wine and a mince pie to get it into the festive spirit. Horrible run.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Cold Winter

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, dragan said:

I got laughed at and beaten last week for suggesting we are heading for atlantic driven weather for the next 3/4 weeks....

Nothing has made me change my mind unfortunately looking at the latest runs.

Its possible,personally I think 3 to 4 weeks is stretching it.

There are many background factors at play which could have big knock on effects just prior to Christmas.

 

[Methuselah]

Deary, deary, me... Is that the plaintive cries of a front-loaded winter writhing on the backburner, I hear?

    

Not the greatest of runs, the 06Z!

[dragan]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its possible,personally I think 3 to 4 weeks is stretching it.

There are many background factors at play which could have big knock on effects just prior to Christmas.

 

well, i said it last week, so that’s down to 2/3 weeks. Indeed i’m not going to suggest what’s in store 4 weeks down the line, because there is indications of a possible change..........i hope