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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Extended 00z EPS means only offers a stalemate of low height anomaly just W and SW of UK, ridging over eastern Europe, +ve heights over Greenland and Svalbard all the way out to day 15.

    Could do with some amplification in the upper flow to shake things up a bit and break the stalemate, take advantage of the Greenland and arctic ridging. Perhaps because the models are not moving the MJO coherently out of COD in the direction of the colder phases, the return of a more Nina base-state pattern of flat jet stream around the northern hemisphere is ruling the show for now.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

    Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

    Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Are you suggesting it could be all over before it even starts?

    Lets just say, im getting impatient, my PC screen isnt going to stay intact for much longer !😁

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Lets just say, im getting impatient, my PC screen isnt going to stay intact for much longer !😁

    I can assure you we will needs lots of patience over the coming days,and possibly weeks!

    The NH pattern looks great,the Atlantic pattern is dreadful, this is inextricably linked to the heights building across Europe.

    My alarm bells started to gently ring a good few days ago, primarily due to me despising rain, the next 7 to 10 days look so depressing ....

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    Clusters reveal that Ural blocking may still prove to be persistent and at least keep us withing a shout of SSW earlier then later

    20201209075807-7ca86aed82de99f56f67d7ac7310d71e9ca9ad8a.png

    Until we see an options of clusters post day 10, it’s tough to take too much away from that other than the fact that there are variations through the members .......just not narrow enough envelopes to make less than six  clusters from them!  probably more to be gained looking at the four options day 10 - yes the e euro ridge looks strong ......

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Until we see an options of clusters post day 10, it’s tough to take too much away from that other than the fact that there are variations through the members .......just not narrow enough envelopes to make less than six  clusters from them!  probably more to be gained looking at the four options day 10 - yes the e euro ridge looks strong ......

    The last sentence is a real and growing concern now and likely means, if correct, it will be a long haul to cold as Atlantic lows will grind to a halt near our locale...

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    I'm still happy with the way things are looking this morning, around about the 18th is still roughly were I think things will begin to change for the better toward a colder outlook.

    The ECM doesn't quite get there as those lows aren't digging far enough into Europe, however surely the pattern would eventually be forced further south with the influence of the Arctic High.

    ECH1-240.thumb.png.30de4aab2d2cc395dbbe1b40f2f262b5.png

    The GFS begins to push the pattern a little further south at day 10 hence we finally start to get much colder uppers encroaching from the northeast.

    gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.628cbdba5fc6aa6f2682a61230948955.png

    A little further on..

    gfsnh-1-300.thumb.png.b766a2cdb31b77ac5a9074620247db40.png

    I know people will say la la land and all that but my point being I think we could still be stirring down the barrel of proper cold spell come Christmas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    From the analysis of the longer range tools like GEFS and EPS the key timeframe to look for something more interesting is 23/12. The mean on EPS T850hPa drops to about -3C and also the GEFS long range from yesterday showing this exact date as a cooling period, these are T2M for my location in central Europe. So nothing within next 12 days at least. But change can still happen before Christmas, just about.

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    I love how even when we get a slack Atlantic and northern blocking, it is still not in the right position for the UK.

    I am starting to lose hope a little now, the only thing that makes up for the rubbish winters is the increasingly warmer summers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Morning all. Ensemble mean from ECM not painting a pretty picture as we head towards Christmas week. Going by this run , the British Isles locks into rinse and spin ( not again you ask ) and high pressure over Europe builds with a warm upper flow in evidence. Hard to picture as we over here are getting buried in snowfall at the moment. Can this scenario be rescued ?  Well maybe, again the Russian/ Ural heights are weakened but even as far out to the end of this weekend a Euro trough is still in evidence and supported by the block to the east. Of course all the models by 144h have milder flow into much of NW Europe by then but the question I ask .."Is the Russian high taken out of influencing the outlook too quickly " ? As we have seen so far to the start of the winter season, maybe so !

    C

    gh500_20201209_00_240.jpg

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Gfs going for a - 10oc possible, by the end of the month northernly ridge settinf up camp in Scotland. 

    gfsnh-1-192.thumb.png.b4aa2463f781e8629539cf516985abb2.png

    Ecmwf going for a white Christmas. 

    Anomoly looking Good

    ECH100-240.thumb.gif.6a71dc4aa4744e42a3dbfcea83e14c8b.gifgfsnh-13-168.thumb.png.d74c0367276110bf943667b7fcec87d6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Supposedly one frustrating thing about some of these outputs at the moment is that although the charts do show a lot of possibilities that could direct us to colder conditions down the line, what they currently show could lead to a lot of rain in places. Likely just lead to some flooding issues in places, especially those that already have had problems with a lot of wet weather. (Appreciate, nonetheless, some people enjoy rainy weather). Some of the heights to our North and to our East caging in Low Pressure around us and close by to our West. 

    Saying that, the models aren’t without some interesting scenarios. Some showing disruption to the Atlantic Lows at times, particularly further on into runs such as the GFS, some of which try to head further East, with one or two runner systems going to our South. Such as this one below, which may deliver a surprise wintry marginal event at least for high ground areas.

    BD172B8E-26A6-4771-9FAE-2E86FDC6FE76.thumb.png.d5af5a12b45d01f6a4a2e9ae77eb44cd.png76D5893D-1421-4ADB-B556-DB99233D5407.thumb.png.e0c8d7d01656bdc7d907182098b27fd8.pngF1B27CAE-B9E8-4F64-AE15-679E807D615E.thumb.png.8b7aad0a2a325caffbf215f1aa36667a.png
     

    Fair to say that with some kind of Southerly tracking Jet stream, these options anyways remain a possibility. Do just feel though, that could do with some kind of proper mid-Atlantic and/or UK ridge that could get sucked up further North (aided by warm air advection) forming stronger blocking to our North. Combined with lower heights over Europe to send Atlantic Lows even further South so the UK becomes invaded by Easterly to North-Easterly flow. 

    All a bit far out to focus on too much. I guess anything could happen really. Plus, I think as longs as their’s some kind of heights to the North (especially how it can help keep Vortex broken up), then that alone could always be something that could encourage some more blocked and (very) cold conditions at some point. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Quite so Mucka I always prefer to have the real eye candy charts the closer we get to the event. Good to have hints in the medium /longer term but you want the real stonkers to appear as you get within 7 days that's when it really feels like game on.

    Realism guys but looks like all the synoptic are shaping up nicely now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    53 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Extended 00z EPS means only offers a stalemate of low height anomaly just W and SW of UK, ridging over eastern Europe, +ve heights over Greenland and Svalbard all the way out to day 15.

    Could do with some amplification in the upper flow to shake things up a bit and break the stalemate, take advantage of the Greenland and arctic ridging. Perhaps because the models are not moving the MJO coherently out of COD in the direction of the colder phases, the return of a more Nina base-state pattern of flat jet stream around the northern hemisphere is ruling the show for now.

    The MJO is still quite active though it has a problem propagating from phase 5 in MC in to western Pacific Ocean because of the NINA base state. What is another unfortunate timing is the strengthening of Nina 4 region as NIna becomes more Modoki like. Can it send enough Rossby wave trains with it being active in the Phase 5/6 now I don't know. This is when imput from @Glacier Point or @Tamara would be very handy 🙂

    mj.PNG

    mjo.PNG

    nina.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    16 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    Realism guys but looks like all the synoptic are shaping up nicely now 

    I can feel and understand the impatience among some posters  but it's worth remembering that the atmospheric dynamics that are likely to create the sort of things that have been developing right at the end of recent GFS runs are not set to really have their effect until the Xmas /new year period hence why we are just getting tasters at the ends of runs. As Catacol pointed out last night patience is required. Worth remembering to that lows stalling in a rinse and repeat pattern over /near the UK could also be viewed as a precursor to something more wintry.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Can i ask, what is causing the blocking at mid/north latitudes given that as i understand it, theres no strong support from the MJO, QBO, la nina, or any driver that we can actually say *this* is driving the blocking...?

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    19 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    I can feel and understand the impatience among some posters  but it's worth remembering that the atmospheric dynamics that are likely to create the sort of things that have been developing right at the end of recent GFS runs are not set to really have their effect until the Xmas /new year period hence why we are just getting tasters at the ends of runs. As Catacol pointed out last night patience is required. Worth remembering to that lows stalling in a rinse and repeat pattern over /near the UK could also be viewed as a precursor to something more wintry.

    Igoing by the charts and how fluid they are, around the 17th looks as though it will go colder...? 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 hour ago, XanderP007 said:

    Gfs going for a - 10oc possible, by the end of the month northernly ridge settinf up camp in Scotland. 

    gfsnh-1-192.thumb.png.b4aa2463f781e8629539cf516985abb2.png

    Ecmwf going for a white Christmas. 

    Anomoly looking Good

    ECH100-240.thumb.gif.6a71dc4aa4744e42a3dbfcea83e14c8b.gifgfsnh-13-168.thumb.png.d74c0367276110bf943667b7fcec87d6.png

    Either you have the rosiest spectacles ever or you are reading those charts incorrectly I’m afraid. Firstly the GFS chart at the top is the 850hpa temp which is about 1500m asl. It shows temps in the south around freezing at 1500m so probably 8-10c on the ground. Even at 1500m there is no minus 10 showing away from the Arctic?! 
     

    second chart from ECM is an anomaly chart. This is the deviation from average, it shows average temps in most areas and slightly above for Scotland, so again 8-10c. I’m not sure how you arrive at a white Christmas from either of these charts?! 

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    I love how even when we get a slack Atlantic and northern blocking, it is still not in the right position for the UK.

    I am starting to lose hope a little now, the only thing that makes up for the rubbish winters is the increasingly warmer summers.

     you really couldn’t make this up really good output from the models but not what we want if it could go wrong it will do living in the UK we most of the time pull out defeat from the jaws of vi😒ctory😠😡. 😬👿

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Just to ease any friction that maybe evident on here... Here is my forecast for the next few weeks.... Based on the 0Z ensembles of fi 😂

    There are a fair few that point to colder solutions moving forward, certainly not a reduction of them! So come on now Mr EC46. Let's have you playing ball on Thursday, and start bringing us something that resembles winter... Otherwise I will be scrapping my monthly fee you take from me.. 😂

    Its nearly Xmas folks, I'm as happy as a pig in a blanket.. 🎅

     

     

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    IMG_20201208_151458.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

    Still plenty of potential in the charts this morning. No reason to be really downbeat but equally no reason to get really excited either. Arctic & Greenland high with split PV is great. But for us to get cold we need to see heights over Russia/Europe move east, allow some of the lows appearing over us to move through to the east/SE and it’s game on. Not much of a change is needed to get this pattern and things probably will change as we’re talking D7-10. 
     

    It might not happen for us, or it might... what’s definite right now is that no one knows for certain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    What a giggle the latest ecm 0z is!!...just a loop of low pressures circling each other in the North Atlantic with the UK port of call (or near by) before pushing north...all the cold air is well and truly locked towards the Arctic. Shows you don't even need a raging jet stream to keep any cold away as we experienced in December 2018 and start of January 2019.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Dont even bother looking at the 06z!!horrible at 216 hours!!!looks like it could be one of those long waits for a decent cold spell even though the northern hemisphere aint full on zonal YET!!

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