Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[That ECM]

10 days ago for the 15th and now showing for the 15th. Theme for me is heights in the pole growing? 

[Windysun1]

Sorry but what are the temps like in the arctic for this time of year. Are they average or below average and are they forecast to drop?

Edited December 9, 2020 by Windysun1

[bluearmy]

That arctic high sure moves slowly when there isn’t any amplification from the mid lats ....... 

[mountain shadow]

Dangers of a west based -nao creeping in too.

What can go wrong will go wrong.

ECM very close to a North Easterly at Day 10 though!!

Edited December 9, 2020 by mountain shadow

[jules216]

that Europe High

[Mucka]

Well ECM day 10 is poised to bring in a  blocked Winter pattern, just need the low over the UK to clear off 

 

Could go either way obviously but nice to be in with a real shout of cold before Xmas

[Nick F]

As bluearmy suggests, very flat jet profile on GFS and EC to at least day 10 doesn't lend to us getting on the right side of the lows moving across the Atlantic to tap into cold air, despite the +ve heights over Greenland and arctic. Really need to see low pressure / low heights pushing further east into Europe too. 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

that Europe High

Looks less pronounced and further east than it has on recent ens output ..... of course being an fi op worth less than the ens but we can hope it’s headed further se still .....

[TSNWK]

So very, very,very close at 240 on ECM... I found myself trying to drag that trough over us down a little on my screen.. :)

lovely heights forming over Greenland and if we can shift that trough south east by about 500 miles then are in business gang..

 

 

[Nick F]

Upper low, a remnant of a lobe of the TPV over Canada that breaks away over the Atlantic, just becomes a limpet centred to the NW of Scotland on 00z EC, still there at day 10.

Really need this feature to drift SE into mainland Europe to have any hope of tapping into cold sources, as it acts keep surface low pressure under it. 

[jules216]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks less pronounced and further east than it has on recent ens output ..... of course being an fi op worth less than the ens but we can hope it’s headed further se still .....

The persistence of southerly advection  of African air in to continent has been semi permanent since 3.12 now trying to extent easily well after 20.12. Well I have been banging on that drum ever since the start of November to not only look west or north but also east. I am now proving to be right. December could actually finish with aggregate -NAO yet with close to record warmth in Europe thanks to that East Europe/West Russian/East Scandi high.

[jules216]

On face value looking at oscillations you would say wow NAO nearly -2, AO -3 yet look at T850 anomaly for the same timeframe. Europe basking in record warmth nearly with Ireland and Portugal only below average regions. 

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, jules216 said:

On face value looking at oscillations you would say wow NAO nearly -2, AO -3 yet look at T850 anomaly for the same timeframe. Europe basking in record warmth nearly with Ireland and Portugal only below average regions. 

The -NAO domain not based far enough east, lower pressure than average over Azores to Portugal and higher than average over Iceland triggers the negative values, but with +ve heights over central and eastern Europe, it means much of Europe in the warm. We need the jet and low heights to dig further east across mainland Europe.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Nick F

[KTtom]

Some good realistic posts this morning as to what the models actually show for our little part of the plannet

Also, totally agree with Nick above, for our chances of a cold spell worth noting, we actually could do with a little more west to east movement. 168 ecm a very frustrating chart, Atlantic shaping up for a ridge with a split vortex due north, yet that pesky Russian high forces the low to sit to the west of the UK for days on end!

  I know last night some were calling for patience again, but those who have been model watching for many years know that this sort of northern hemesphere profile is rare and unlikely to last long.

[Radiating Dendrite]

53 minutes ago, Windysun1 said:

Sorry but what are the temps like in the arctic for this time of year. Are they average or below average and are they forecast to drop?

Around 25c at the moment - pack you suncream

Joking aside, they are more than cold enough....do not worry.

[jules216]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

The -NAO domain not based far enough east, lower pressure than average over Azores to Portugal and higher than average over Iceland triggers the negative values, but with +ve heights over central and eastern Europe, it means much of Europe in the warm. We need the jet to and low heights to dig further east across mainland Europe.

Yes we need, unfortunately these high pressure areas there in mainland Europe can be very stubborn to shift and can eat weeks of winter. They seem to appear always when there is blocking potential and tend to dissapear when crazy westerly zonality kicks in but then its too late

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, jules216 said:

On face value looking at oscillations you would say wow NAO nearly -2, AO -3 yet look at T850 anomaly for the same timeframe. Europe basking in record warmth nearly with Ireland and Portugal only below average regions. 

More evidence that 2020 is broken jules .....

[jules216]

Just now, bluearmy said:

More evidence that 2020 is broken jules .....

Yes 2020 , you probably remember my posts in autumn when I kept saying about look east as well. That didnt meet with much of an interest then bring forward time 1 month it may be the big talking point. How I wish I was wrong and it will bugger of eventually.

[northwestsnow]

Such a terribly frustrating pattern.

Another 10 days minimum of Atlantic rains as the stalling low of despair gets trapped near or over the UK as depicted by the 00z NWP so far...

The concern is Dec turns out very wet now,I'm clinging to the ext eps staying on page with the extended outlook but I've seen all this many times before unfortunately...

 

 

[jules216]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The -NAO domain not based far enough east, lower pressure than average over Azores to Portugal and higher than average over Iceland triggers the negative values, but with +ve heights over central and eastern Europe, it means much of Europe in the warm. We need the jet and low heights to dig further east across mainland Europe.

Fresh set of 15 day EPS meteograms introduce a wind direction that can suggest low pressure shifting more to the east as it introduces probabilities of wind direction from W/NW/N and NE after day 12. Largest cluster still shows SW though. There is still hope as those 3 combined together form about 50% of clusters against 50% of SW direction.

[IDO]

We have been cursed with no cold to tap into this winter so far, November the 7th warmest in history! So when we get a pattern like this, which is neutral and therefore slow moving, it takes forever to get cold back to our sector without sufficient forcing. Of course, that Russian high is the culprit and short-term pain for long-term gain is the mantra to dissuade from disappointment. 

That nascent Atlantic ridge in the flow from d4 does pump some warmth to restock the heights in Greenland but on the 0z it is insufficient to establish an adequate wedge to attract the Arctic high quickly to its borders:

That being the quickest route to some cold as a precursor to more persuasive background signals arriving later (hopefully!). The trend seems to be a slight convergence toward the Atlantic ridge not being strong enough for a quicker route to cold!

Weather on the ground may not be a zonal Atlantic but the difference is semantics as wet with average temps seems a good call, with a west>east for rainfall totals:

An improvement in the flow needed in the next few runs or another missed opportunity is staring us in the face.

[Paul_1978]

15 minutes ago, KTtom said:

 

  those who have been model watching for many years know that this sort of northern hemesphere profile is rare and unlikely to last long.

Are you suggesting it could be all over before it even starts?

[That ECM]

Been looking at output for 15 years ish now. Gone from having no idea what I’m looking at to thinking, yeah getting a good idea of possibilities as we move forward. 
 

Then I see various comments on here and then I think eh? Oh well 

[jules216]

Clusters reveal that Ural blocking may still prove to be persistent and at least keep us withing a shout of SSW earlier then later

[Nick F]

Extended 00z EPS means only offers a stalemate of low height anomaly just W and SW of UK, ridging over eastern Europe, +ve heights over Greenland and Svalbard all the way out to day 15.

Could do with some amplification in the upper flow to shake things up a bit and break the stalemate, take advantage of the Greenland and arctic ridging. Perhaps because the models are not moving the MJO coherently out of COD in the direction of the colder phases, the return of a more Nina base-state pattern of flat jet stream around the northern hemisphere is ruling the show for now.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Nick F