Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

A bit misleading. Where is the evidence that it’ll be turning cold over Xmas? I think there is some serious straw clutching going on!

In all honesty mate I love a cold snap and snowy spell as much as anyone.. But I'm under know illusions right now, there are gonna be a good many sour faces come the latter part of the month when this significant cold is still absent... And probably a fair few posters who will go missing. I'm not ruling out cold, but I'm not seeing anything this side of Xmas.. Later on who knows, but we've been down this avenue numerous times... And before you know 3 quarters of the Winter have passed.. I hope I'm proven wrong here, and I wouldn't mind one bit being wrong, but at this stage I feel the chances are small, at least in the next few weeks. 

Oh and folks I'm not being a party pooper here, I love it when you guys ramp up the cold, I do it myself enough.. But I do end up giving myself exhaustion when it all goes wrong Even though I'm not seeing significant cold just yet, I'm still hopeful we will we get some kind of reward before the seasons out..

Edited December 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[sebastiaan1973]

Cherry of the day. Beautiful. For you, across the Northsea, and for us, over here in the Netherlands.

[Weather vane]

Really interesting article from Samuel Hayes, on Netweather, providing explanations for our current situation, and most importantly, giving us hope for how close we could be to upcoming cold .

Arctic Amplification and Winter Weather - What's the Connection?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Samuel Hayes explores how Arctic Amplification impacts the UK's winter weather, and how it links into the stratosphere, sea ice, snow cover and more.

 

[Faronstream]

GFS12Z was clearly a very mild outlier in long range, getting more possible for colder than average conditions around christmas time.

 

 

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, MATT said:

In all honesty mate I love a cold snap and snowy spell as much as anyone.. But I'm under know illusions right now, there are gonna be a good many sour faces come the latter part of the month when this significant cold is still absent... And probably a fair few posters who will go missing. I'm not ruling out cold, but I'm not seeing anything this side of Xmas.. Later on who knows, but we've been down this avenue numerous times... And before you know 3 quarters of the Winter have passed.. I hope I'm proven wrong here, and I wouldn't mind one bit being wrong, but at this stage I feel the chances are small, at least in the next few weeks. 

Yes I think there have been picked up stating that there is basically a date when things will or probably will become wintry? I've seen nothing of any note from the met or any other body suggesting this. That said it may well happen but the general rule of thumb on here was nothing past 144 hrs is reliable. I think a lot of new members hang there coats on these posts as gospel. I've personally zero idea at all, how can I. The nhp looks in a good place ie PV getting stretched ete. After that who knows in all honesty. The gfs, ec do seem to be fluid in there output so maybe that's a good sign. Here's hoping the weather gods give folk a half decent winter 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Bit of an angry looking small storm running South off the main Atlantic Low towards South-Western UK at 144 hours on the 12Z ECMWF

Could lead to some very wild conditions if that came off. Possibly some flooding too. Not my cup of green tea, but interesting for those of you in the South and West who like stormy weather. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Weathizard]

To much risidual energy in the west Atlantic for a substantial ridge on this run IMO, I could be wrong but doesn’t look like following the 6z

[Matt H]

Looks like an attempt at following the GFS 06z from earlier at t192, don’t think it’ll be successful on this run though.

[Weathizard]

Nice vertical WAA going up but the bowling ball low coming out the eastern seaboard looks strong - 216 will be interesting, one of those occasions where I wish the ECM showed more than just 24hr time jumps 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Weathizard

[ITSY]

40 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

In years to come historians will view these threads as a case book  on the fickle nature that be human behaviour. One good ECM in the next 55 mins and this place will be flipping and popping corks..and for that alone I love it here

If any historian references this thread in 55 years from now, I'll buy you a pint. 

[blizzard81]

Now that's more like it. No demon pv lobe spinning of the mother lobe to our north west. Somethings afoot and it ain't 12 inches. 

[Weathizard]

Doesn’t make it, but this isn’t a bad chart for future potential

[swfc]

Massive flip on the ec 12z from this morning. Good thing, anything is possible with the current state on the nhp. Probably find out in 10 days

Edited December 8, 2020 by swfc

[blizzard81]

Just now, swfc said:

Massive flip on the ec 12z from this morning. Good thing anything is possible with the current state on the nhp. Probably find out in 10 days

Yep much better ending compared to this morning's run. Pressure rising in all the right places (look at Iceland). Pressure lowering in all the right places (look at Iberia). 

[Matt H]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep much better ending compared to this morning's run. Pressure rising in all the right places (look at Iceland). Pressure lowering in all the right places (look at Iberia). 

It has been one one of the most exciting Decembers in years at day 10.

[Decemberof2010]

So the GEFS tonight serves up a Christmas special ensemble. 
A group and song I don’t like but hey ho

Look east on 17. 
Will it stay another day?

 

[IDO]

Looking at the 12z gefs and lots of interest with a good cluster sending wedge/heights north in the Atlantic sector. The t300:

I would not make any guess as to how this will work out at this range but certainly the interest remains. Another cluster similar to the op and other routes not so great as well. Further runs may indicate a trend...

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

It has been one one of the most exciting Decembers in years at day 10.

That is quite true actually lol. I just think the ecm will have a much better handle on these unusual synoptics than the other models. 

[Timmytour]

What chance the models flip wildly in a couple of days when the CME makes a direct hit on earth and throws the PV into all sorts of trouble....

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

What chance the models flip wildly in a couple of days when the CME makes a direct hit on earth and throws the PV into all sorts of trouble....

More chance of the models flipping all over the place, than the weather.

MIA

[Anthony Burden]

With the Russian high finally moving from its current position where it has been for some considerable 

time and the Atlantic finding it’s way through to some degree.What weather pattern change will

occur,perhaps nothing exciting in the very short term but a sudden pressure rise to the north

is very possible as Matt Hugo on Twitter showed.Some good hope for the run up to Christmas 

which we honestly do not see very often.

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

With the Russian high finally moving from its current position where it has been for some considerable 

time and the Atlantic finding it’s way through to some degree.What weather pattern change will

occur,perhaps nothing exciting in the very short term but a sudden pressure rise to the north

is very possible as Matt Hugo on Twitter showed.Some good hope for the run up to Christmas 

which we honestly do not see very often.

Where has it moved??? Its still in Russia unless putin has flited and taken the ussr with him

Edited December 8, 2020 by swfc

[daz_4]

Well we'll need a Christmas miracle to save this December. Without it this month will end up extremely warm here in Central Europe. What good is the destroyed TPV when the end result is even worse than last year temperature wise?

 

[Catacol]

ECM at 240h maybe beginning to smell the coffee. Not much more to say tonight - the potential prognosis for a switch to colder weather in the last third of the month remains the same.

Lots of posts at the moment questioning the signals and wondering why, on 8th December, we don’t have snow drifts on the horizon already. It is probably worth confirming the narrative so far. All the talk of a front loaded winter was based on historic modelling of previous Niña seasons where a mid Atlantic ridge was favoured and then the season flattens out as time passes. This theory was turned on its head a couple of weeks ago when it became clear that the atmosphere is not responding to Nina as expected (at least not yet) and so plans have been reset. Niña is fading fast, we have had a semi permanent high close to the Urals for what seems like weeks. BFTV’s article today in that regard is timely. Meaning? Don’t moan at the signals - try instead to understand them! They have changed and frankly I think have changed significantly for the better. 
 

So now we are waiting for the MJO to come back around and for the impact of warming events to upset the vortex. The impacts of these don’t happen in a week! The very short term reality of the battleground over the U.K. at the moment is that it is Dec 8. Even in the heady days of pre climate change U.K. when there was more ice and lower global temperatures how often has winter arrived before the second half of December? Is it genuinely a surprise that we haven’t got cold pools yet to tap into? No. Not one bit. 
 

Patience is going to be a real virtue right now. I am very definitely optimistic about the season which lies ahead. Winter doesn’t start until Dec 15 unless you live in the Highlands.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Catacol

[DAVID SNOW]

20 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

It has been one one of the most exciting Decembers in years at day 10.

Its also been a rather different and interesting start to December for many, some have already had snow, even to low levels in the south!, some freezing fog and temperatures below average.

Lots of interest in the models going forward, with dare i say it, a chance of a white Christmas.