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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
6 hours ago, Griff said:

Why didn't anyone show me yesterday's GFSP?  

2139136671_gfsnh-0-300(2).thumb.png.aba9ebac35fd3c98872e9509c487800b.png

 

More importantly this morning's gem says keep calm and carry on... 

121599819_gemnh-0-144(7).thumb.png.b183f38c5ed2ad02448ddb4e615e9f43.png

615908729_gemnh-0-240(5).thumb.png.ad0ff5aeb879d062fb041c203008ff14.png

Is today's GFSP broken? Proper question, ta. 

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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
24 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I Have just been flitting around a few model and ensemble runs and would thoroughly recommend coldies and snowies take a look at the extended gfs 0z control run 384 -840.  Just follow it right through to the end, it is indeed a thing of joy and beauty.

just a titbit below

GFSC00EU99_720_1.png

Just viewed this run, it is completely outrageous. Definitely a coldie at the controls.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Growing support for a cold spell after Christmas. This is the coldest set so far for that period . This is for London / south as well! 

855DBB5A-A95E-4A4D-8252-58B0104F162D.jpeg

 Of note that there are several members colder than the op in the days following Christmas a couple even tap -10 which is my benchmark for decent cold. 

One might also say that the cold grouping is in the ascentancy post Christmas..

Nice plot thank you

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Like others have said,most definitely interesting NH synoptic appearing...consider what we were locked into last year,and all of a sudden things look quite rosey.

gensnh-4-1-384.png

gensnh-7-1-372.png

gensnh-9-1-300.png

gensnh-12-1-360.png

gensnh-16-1-312.png

gensnh-19-1-348.png

gensnh-20-1-288.png

gensnh-21-1-312.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Is it possible for those posting loads of charts to add them side by side? It's becoming an absolute nightmare to scroll using a mobile.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Again, this is one ensemble member 16 days away at 6am so it really doesn’t tell us much at all.

Tell that to Jon Snow 

Anyway

Atlantic Low Lingering. 

gens-4-1-384.png

gens-2-1-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Like others have said,most definitely interesting NH synoptic appearing...consider what we were locked into last year,and all of a sudden things look quite rosey.

gensnh-4-1-384.png

gensnh-7-1-372.png

gensnh-9-1-300.png

gensnh-12-1-360.png

gensnh-16-1-312.png

gensnh-19-1-348.png

gensnh-20-1-288.png

gensnh-21-1-312.png

With a set up like that we will be needing sleet depth charts:reindeer-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
5 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

This is one ensemble member 16 days away at 6am so it really doesn’t tell us much at all.

One day I will learn

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Gonna Be Colder Earlier Then. 

And warmer later...

Love your enthusiasm, but think you may need to temper your posting a little.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Everyone has a bias and I'm A Ramper so no need to Criticise My Every Move. 

tenor.gif.86eed92c08a7e7890fba81229058c585.gif

Atlantic low on the Cards. 

gens-5-1-336.thumb.png.cfbd50a83e342ff758012f5924a18971.png676592321_gens-27-1-288(1).thumb.png.9d798cb8238c01029cc114f07bcf252c.pnggens-2-1-300.thumb.png.b9f5ddc46986391b865941af80a1daac.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

As others have said, everything pointing in the right direction on the GEFS. But we'll need the EPS pack to run with this signal before we get too excited - those of us who've been around for a while will be able to recount many times when the GFS or GEFS  did a mad one and wound up leading us astray. Other models clearly toying with a similar notions but as xmas week approaches let's see how far they take it - still plenty of time yet for this to unfurl in both  directions. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
1 hour ago, Griff said:

Not really experienced deep cold in my lifetime in the UK, any idea why the control hates us later on?  

To be fair, we don’t seem to get deep cold often. Most of us would probably be happy having something chilly and seasonal, along with the chance of something white too (though not the end of the world if the chillier period towards Christmas doesn’t deliver. January or February could offer something)

One reason the GFS (00Z) control run I think seems to hate us is that although, synoptically, it looks interesting for a time, that Azores Low to our South-West gets a bit stuck. Blows up a bit. The high heights to our South-East over Europe at first get in the way. Got a pretty Greenland High from the Azores ridge, although other Lows in the Atlantic get stuck as the high heights to our South-East fight back. Would be one of the things to watch out for to not get a Western based negative NAO pattern with cold weather avoiding us to the West. Which is also why I feel the handling of that Azores Low and the heights over Europe is going to continue to cause the gears of the models to grind at times. Until at least they get a better handle of the situation.  
 

2D265C71-3045-4B2E-9E8F-E7C40799EBF1.thumb.png.40b93449f2fea2fecc9f452a5c136f17.pngD8557072-66A6-42E2-A3D1-ACCB290F7D1D.thumb.png.ec9adebceb57a001eb77f2803f7b8c6a.pngD2607EEF-339D-473D-B5A2-6DE0CBF2192D.thumb.png.13c81ec75aa2458448724708b7f6bce5.png4D906C07-E3FC-4E9F-82A4-4E69C4EFE36C.thumb.png.3b9e83a1fc305574d602a2162b679628.png

The 00Z control run finishes off with High Pressure building over Eastern UK, then collapsing against the pressure of the increasing Low Heights to our North-West.

3759CE31-36FD-49C5-812C-5DF8D8DC285D.thumb.png.e0f6e9d8fa9a098f725fcc574511c385.pngD5861D0E-3746-4826-A36B-4BF2CD331F7E.thumb.png.ebdd3a3cd13cc03503aa9f30272525b2.pngF2D5ABF5-049A-4C3C-9859-3ECBA7965689.thumb.png.50d4478072a62f42b15d13b8c612da14.png

 

The 06Z GFS control run, while synoptically not the same as the 00Z one, has the same problem of Low Pressure to our South-West being naughty. Gets stuck again to our South-West bringing milder air up over Southern UK from the South. Probably also thanks again to those high heights to our South-East over mainland Europe getting in the way. And the Low just struggling to get to the East of the UK failing to link up with Low Pressure across Northern/North-Eastern UK. The Low just fills and the Azores High builds East over the UK and towards Scandinavia. 

8093FAE8-4A9C-4F89-8106-68BDE6676510.thumb.png.074d41ab5e23f4107122fe3154462710.png3E8F5881-0F72-49A0-A295-C9B563BA92EF.thumb.png.f6e21698779cc2fa1946b0a18e29f874.png8C539157-ECDC-4BB4-997E-B1C859D72BCD.thumb.png.7ad1abfbe6874f20848f96993e99041a.png1D32E6C4-D245-44DA-80A6-80388B81A8FD.thumb.png.e7bddfcd2510e06a7154b165e4c709ce.png464BE220-18FD-48FC-A6E4-F0247CD025D9.thumb.png.bb97dbb3d6c3ea85aec3611440ee6d6d.png

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Typos
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Everyone has a bias and I'm A Ramper so no need to Criticise My Every Move. 

tenor.gif.86eed92c08a7e7890fba81229058c585.gif

Atlantic low on the Cards. 

gens-5-1-336.thumb.png.cfbd50a83e342ff758012f5924a18971.png676592321_gens-27-1-288(1).thumb.png.9d798cb8238c01029cc114f07bcf252c.pnggens-2-1-300.thumb.png.b9f5ddc46986391b865941af80a1daac.png

I know you're still learning this stuff but this isn't all right. The member on the far right contains a small polar low running down the eastern UK with a cut-off icelandic high - that is far from Atlantic driven weather. Similarly the second frame does show several lows in the atlantic - including insanely stupid ones which is why we shouldn't examine individual members for detail - but it also shows a ridge of higher pressure north of Iceland. The first frame is classic GFS but is admittedly Altantic dominated

And anyway, all of these frames are at +itdoesntmatterhours so best a) ignored and b) ignored and c) glanced at for nothing more than cursory trends. On the whole, save yourself the emotional turmoil of looking through the fine lines at this range - it's basically computer generated long term guesswork. Fun and potentially relevant for trends, but nothing more

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Well it's been a fun filled day we've still got the 18z runs and Remember, it's over a week to go still until the day that we want Snow At Least.

We can't even trust past 5 Days.

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