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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

That Sir! Is very bumpy jet stream around the globe.. at the distance the details are bound to chop and change but I’ll take that for now and be happy to take my chances on where the dust settles nearer the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

An excellent NH profile and although in FI, this has been the trend of the last few days:

gfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.991e3f55179d58253bb0af089a49035e.pnggfsnh-1-336.thumb.png.9abd045edc84a47c16bbfa24d8528e31.png

Thanks to the disruption from the Arctic high the colder tPV has been dispersed. On this run a great cold pool for N Europe and Russia. The UK at the edge of the real cold so if we do get this synoptic outcome we are going to need some luck to get a better snowy outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What's the issue? As long as it's model discussion

Passing off old model runs as current ones is absolutely discouraged.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

I couldnt resist not to post this image. Here is a comparison of GWO forecast vs same progression in 2017, the difference is about 3 weeks later now then 2017, the anomalies are a near mirror image for when GWO was in weak Nino atractor phases 5 to 8. This would add some validity to what the experts taught us here for years like @chionomaniac @Tamara @Glacier Point @Catacol

gcarYPSS.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

i could only access those runs  

don't worry i'm blamed for everything

Just try and put some context behind the charts you are posting.

If the next run is already underway, probably best to wait for that to complete instead of posting charts from the previous run (just to avoid confusion).

Ultimately though, people can choose to not view your comments - so do not worry too much.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
26 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

I would happily take this chart for Christmas. Cold and crisp weather would be far better than mild, wet and windy. Of course if we could shift the high further west that would be great as well.:santa-emoji:

Understatement or send it retrogressing!!!!!  

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

GEFS 06z mean at day 10 looks great! 

253AD8AD-BEC4-45AC-81FF-6DFD48A67230.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Parts of Canada look chilly over the next two weeks (2m temps):

d0-8>anim_xto4.gifd8-16> anim_rzl5.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
8 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GEFS 06z mean at day 10 looks great! 

253AD8AD-BEC4-45AC-81FF-6DFD48A67230.png

That is actually a really good mean from GFs day 10. Probably the best I’ve seen in a while, there’s a marked ridge there up into Greenland. Reasonably sharp for a 10 day mean.

Also nice to see a mean like this at day 10 not out at day 16! 
 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Hey gang..plenty of juicy 6z ens from GFS again..the cold Xmas day options are gaining momentum...remember when Borris addressed the nation all those months back...you must stay at home! Wouldn't it be great if he had to repeat that in the next few weeks due to different circumstances..

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

A good low pressure around the 21st and we've got below 0oc temperatures they may be far out but we've got a big of Snow at the end of the rainy Tunnel.

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Very soon low Pressure to the North a good day for Scots.

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Temps going below 0oc though.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

As some have mentioned   some of the best ens i have seen for a while   many have height rises  to varying degrees   ens 22  brings cold weather from christmas  eve  probably to the new year  with cold uppers  and lows descending down the country.   

A cold lovers paradise.  Something to look at anyway

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

As some have mentioned   some of the best ens i have seen for a while   many have height rises  to varying degrees   ens 22  brings cold weather from christmas  eve  probably to the new year  with cold uppers  and lows descending down the country.   

A cold lovers paradise.  Something to look at anyway

 

Things must be looking up if your gerrin a tad excited Mark...like you say things looking much better.. Merry Xmas mate

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Things must be looking up if your gerrin a tad excited Mark...like you say things looking much better.. Merry Xmas mate

lol  Meet you on the beacon for some sledging  Merry christmas to you also.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Worth mentioning the ECM has some wet snow on higher ground on 23rd. Knock a degree of the temps and more areas could see something ❄️⛄

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Worth mentioning the ECM has some wet snow on higher ground on 23rd. Knock a degree of the temps and more areas could see something ❄️⛄

25CEC2D2-E41C-4D22-84F1-B033504341AD.jpeg

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Oh no! Next it will be harmony teezing us again.. but we love it

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I often find multi-model ensembles can be helpful in picking out patterns when individual model ensemble suites are showing large spread. 

545302015_Screenshot2020-12-14at12_51_12.thumb.png.bc0e49bc07b1d8d63b47141391f34d19.png

Certainly a "cooling trend" on there in the extended, though only slightly, it's not overly significant especially when you factor in that we're starting from a position of above average temperatures. 

The scatter within the EPS is large with no real signal, though perhaps very slightly skewed towards slightly below average, but certainly nothing as "significant" as the GEFS mean. I know which model I'd put more confidence in..

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Seems like there is currently some good support for something chilly to develop towards Christmas.

The 3 longer distance models at 240 hours - 06Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GEM - showing up the mid-Atlantic ridge quite nicely:

06Z GFS

4637F2D2-CA4D-4B42-9149-7FA241771222.thumb.png.0350c3b0fe4e5dae57957f70832c5954.png7CEE0110-A5B7-4CE6-B296-5E1D4BFBD74B.thumb.png.1bb4bb251373294d0db7f897bc43690e.png
 

00Z GEM

316F4906-FE09-4574-A5E8-823455D34A6F.thumb.png.df7d80dd066fab3fe96bb089a046d4ac.png384EC1BC-D3FF-4027-BB6C-2B132200A3B8.thumb.png.0ec3560c352a13e650f8cca7dd245cce.png

00Z ECMWF

F8E370A1-2FD9-43AD-941F-F393DAECC077.thumb.png.a709c7f335932d16e72f883b803b8ac3.png21E7F4F1-CA1B-4FB0-988E-A307CFE7EE8E.thumb.png.7c7ddab1687888b3ee6271443b49217a.png

GFS probably the messiest with how it plays about with the Atlantic amplification to our West. Less pronounced than on the other 2 models, but still a pretty good area of High Pressure to our West. Would be chilly. More of a cyclonic flow from the North-West and North on both the GEM and ECMWF with a chance of some showers, wintry at times of high ground, but perhaps to lower levels on the GEM as -5*C 850 hPa line gets down into Northern France. 

Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means between day 8 and 10 supporting the amplified ridge shifting East into the mid-Atlantic to our West upstream:

GEFS ensemble mean

45AFE3A4-2C9A-42C9-AACA-6269C50A2636.thumb.png.be81ac36df959978a338e7c8b8b85a1a.pngBF44D456-CCC8-419F-9143-88FEC90C54D6.thumb.png.f53a5eae40c1e3227081786278910a35.pngFFA5341A-7CA4-46C5-B8EF-3DBADB10538D.thumb.png.55f57128babcb06235c796fa790f571c.png

ECMWF ensemble mean

10231399-2586-46EB-9534-A0B5CB13B5DB.thumb.png.05a94b6c5a5005c21b08552e5ad93de2.png59E14E67-4D9C-4618-B5A1-40C0C020B235.thumb.png.cb5c99a40b83be272923b2b0f6f19498.png1E65EAE3-24FE-40BA-BFC0-9D822DC4A3CB.thumb.png.1923d5b49c4c6847200c5fa4e631ef00.png

The ECMWF maybe a little less amplified in the Atlantic than the GEFS mean. Both, though, showing a signal for amplification with Low Pressure over Northern UK moving further East into Scandinavia allowing colder weather from between the North-West and North take over. No evidence on these charts for the Vortex rock about over Greenland, which makes these amplified patterns around the Atlantic sector be easily possible. And that prospect as well of the MJO, some spoke off, possibly going into some high-level phase 6 territory. That of which being kind to some amplification to the West of the UK. (Sorry if some of these charts have already been posted).

The GFS Jet stream chart at 240 hours illustrating some buckling of the Jet upstream to our West. A wavy pattern that maintains ridging into the mid-Atlantic. No flat, powerful, Jet stream powering through to flatten out the ridge at that time frame 

1F208074-AFEE-41D6-A5F6-3775A48B644E.thumb.png.a9d306dfec5b483f438ae23f87fa8e38.png
 

Both the London and Aberdeen GEFS line graph 2 meter temperature ensembles show enough of a trend for things to cool down towards Christmas.

79F0EA29-BB3E-4E12-A461-BB5B93E506B9.thumb.jpeg.0a11bdc82fecb48e48bb9a05d16aacc0.jpeg330C1D41-E022-486A-AB97-6ED677C4D7C5.thumb.jpeg.ddff71ae09eb26c4f4a9da59c86ae6db.jpeg

Aberdeen, in particular, may drop close or around freezing levels. Definitely a real wintry flavour their. London ensembles have a little more scatter towards Christmas and beyond, but still looks like a trend to something chillier, like with Aberdeen. I guess some of this, however, depending whether a chillier Polar/Arctic Maritime flow can penetrate far enough South to reach Southern UK areas, which I think is very possible. Need to also have a pretty clean evolution with the link up of that hang back Low to our South-West taking a mostly Eastwards track, and then linking up with the main UK Low Pressure across our South. This should also help with supporting the amplified ridge as it crosses East into the Atlantic. More of the smaller details really.

CE16FEDD-3CD8-4059-95FE-A674D3B03E1D.thumb.jpeg.0d569b43cf93c685a526085ddcfa0e97.jpeg
 

Overall, things look rather sweet for the cold weather fans towards Christmas from this mornings charts. No signs of any really deep cold, plus the GFS is a bit messy with its evolution. Not quite certain enough yet I feel whether this would be something transient, or something longer lasting (although there doesn’t seem to be any real hurry to flatten out the likely Western/mid Atlantic ridge). Would be very seasonal and it could be cold enough for something white. Both on the ground and precipitation-wise, particularly over Northern areas of the UK.

Not really experienced deep cold in my lifetime in the UK, any idea why the control hates us later on?  

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I Have just been flitting around a few model and ensemble runs and would thoroughly recommend coldies and snowies take a look at the extended gfs 0z control run 384 -840.  Just follow it right through to the end, it is indeed a thing of joy and beauty.

just a titbit below

GFSC00EU99_720_1.png

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Growing support for a cold spell after Christmas. This is the coldest set so far for that period . This is for London / south as well! 

855DBB5A-A95E-4A4D-8252-58B0104F162D.jpeg

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