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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks excellent for coldies....

 

image.thumb.png.51c8920745c3936a35e4508db00d1ee2.png

image.thumb.png.453fe513fd62908a7dfaf8443bb89de3.png

Would love to see what happens next, toppler or heights in the right places? 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Hi Scott

I’ve had Last week of December as target for some time using my solar forcing method.  Any run showing  a northerly and diving N/S LP to be on near continent and Ridging to NW in time for Xmas has my backing.

 

 

BFTP

image.thumb.png.6d3f8001c0df4ff3c4ef822901f43262.png
 

That’s what I’m thinking.  
ECM
 

image.thumb.gif.1bda40ebfd1fa1079f2ce47aac106e04.gif


image.thumb.gif.3599ec4d87d6967edf990add0533ed9e.gif

Just the 8-10 days to get through to get there....what on Earth could go wrong?  An awful lot....but here’s hoping

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Mean is another improvement with the energy from the scandy trough just that little bit further south by day 10...

We are well in the game for a cold Christmas ....( with snow on the ground potentially,in parts of Scotland in particular)..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Models still looking interesting for the Xmas period but until we get to next weekend think we should all be calm about if a cold snap or possible period develops.The good thing is the trends are there.As others have said a big thank you to Scott who last evening simplified certain technical aspects that I was able to grasp probably along with many others.Before anyone says anything this is not a criticism to any one as I notice a few posts have disappeared from very late last night which is a shame as when I read them I felt they were fair IMO.It is sad we live in a world now where different opinions can be misconstrued to be something else but that is the world we now live in.Sorry mods for being off topic but freedom of speech should NEVER be denied in our democratic country.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

A good looking D10 mean chart from ECM if you want a cold, frosty and even snowy Christmas - very clear trend to Scandi low / Atlantic ridge = northerly

Screenshot_20201214-075531.thumb.png.45687a2cffaa8248017f2a8f5c7828fc.png

The ECM has of course got history in watering down Atlantic ridges so several days to go yet before confidence builds

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Good morning!

I haven't read all pages since yesterday evening, so may I repeat this, but is there a chance for a SSW? A minor for sure...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

D12 on the gefs and overall trending towards some sort of amplified Atlantic sector:

d12> gens_panel_jds6.png London uppers> graphe3_1000_308.22491455078125_146.62860107421875___.thumb.gif.269b2130f36f2ee8e36323f59ac2458c.gif

More ens showing interest than those not, but there is a fine line between cold and not so cold in how it all develops on the good ones! The d14 ens suggest that things may develop even further for a blocked setup but not strong cluster(s):

gens_panel_iws0.png

The trend remains so steady as she goes...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Well well well. The ECM has a polar low poised to drop on xmas Eve and the GFS has practically a channel low for Xmas day. What could possibly go wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Such a shame shout Steve...

I for one really enjoy his enthusiasm when explaining charts in the run up to a potential cold chase ...

Come on Steve, dear me, I write off Winter about 4x a day!!

And NW members can vouch for that !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well well well. The ECM has a polar low poised to drop on xmas Eve and the GFS has practically a channel low for Xmas day. What could possibly go wrong?

The ECM does not show a polar low about to drop on Christmas Eve.

I'm assuming you're referring to the low to the North West? That is actually a hinderance. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

ECM and GFS 240  - going to be interesting watching this evolve into more reliable timeframes.  At least we are looking at a change in pattern, this coming week looks like a repeat of last week 

image.thumb.png.167eb33622adcb31557ebefc9e3c005d.pngECM at 240

image.thumb.png.1215c8b39ebeacf997caf095c399d89a.pngGFS at 240

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The ECM does not show a polar low about to drop on Christmas Eve.

I'm assuming you're referring to the low to the North West? That is actually a hinderance. 

The path it takes will decide whether it's a hindrance or not. It's 850'are minus 5 to minus 10 and it's sat in a north to northwesterly air stream. 

I say that's pretty polar.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Big scatter on the GEFS spaghetti, though the colder options are outweighing the milder ones. But look at that control! 

922C0C33-61DD-4469-B188-0C2D4C0527AB.thumb.png.0339f361063ae7225e56bfe4298d79e5.png

 

It’s how the low in the Atlantic interacts/develops. 
 

We have the Azores high to the south and the developing ridge to the north, if the low fills and disrupts then it keeps the flow south and allows the northerly airmass to sink south. If the low intensifies and gears up it forces east and north pushing the colder air back north, leaving us caught in the Azores/Atlantic flow! 
 

fine line! 
 

GFS Control vs ECM Xmas eve.

1309B7A9-B7E0-417B-A9CE-5409CB2C406D.thumb.png.ee65a48e6348b2a67429b9d690d2ac34.png9B5935AE-BB82-4EB1-966B-6557515C6314.thumb.png.9848498f2eea44fb79170afd79eefb31.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

For me, the most significant thing this season is this massive cold block to the east and the lack of cold air over Canada. If this block starts moving westwards, than, oh boy oh boy...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Still a guessing game on exactly how things will pan out after 144hrs,the high pressure 

holds the key to every door.The ideal scenario is for the high to sit northwest of us 

around Christmas Day with low pressure to the east,would be a perfect set up let’s hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Such a shame shout Steve...

I for one really enjoy his enthusiasm when explaining charts in the run up to a potential cold chase ...

Come on Steve, dear me, I write off Winter about 4x a day!!

And NW members can vouch for that !!!

He should do it more often, with early month cold snap I think same happened I think it’s healthy for everyone to have breaks from models... but some of us are sadly built differently.. it’s very hard to resist in winter.

Need to make this on topic so P14 polar low... lock it in !

5E074607-CCA9-4589-B8DE-FA338AD8937A.thumb.png.b3f7bdb96b0b2f419788a04994e3a84b.png951A9483-BDDA-42D2-9DB5-CFCECA2BF15C.thumb.png.8d3892584fc93c1e6974040f9f1eeea4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Models starting to suggest a cold Christmas day (white possibly for north and west Scotland/Northern Ireland) however it's all down to how quickly a low leaving the US at about day 3 develops and then where it phases with our trough in about a week. Lots to go wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

With any cold spell that might affect the UK,until it reaches down to around +96 hours on the models then think that its NOT going to happen.

It will save you a lot of heartache in the end,the amount of times I have seen cold spells evaporate  before they count down to the reliable timeframe in the output,yet if its mild being shown...........

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