Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Was just chilling out to a dracula film,when boom those 18z ens smack me right in the eye...some barn stormers for Xmas day.. Thats me done for tonight im gerrin overly hyped

[Scott Ingham]

23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I’m going to chip in on the Scott appreciation society

It’s actually quite a skill Scott and surprisingly few people have it.

I’ve always had a pretty firm grip on teleconnections but getting things out of my head and laid out clearly and most importantly,  concisely is not easy at all. Good stuff.

With dyslexia i thought id be bad at getting my point across. It takes me a while to reply but its actually just spelling. Maybe it does come naturally and I didn't realize but its been amazing to be made to feel so welcome and appreciated.

Ive been a follower since 2009 in the background without summing up the guts to give my opinion.

Believe me when I say it can lead to frustration when I read someone talking no sense and not having the confidence to give my argument against hahaha!

Again thank you im humbled by the comments. A lot of guys in here I have had the utmost respect for. Its like having your debut season with your boyhood football club and starting off with a few goals haha! This year's Tammy Abraham!

[Mucka]

The Op was one of a cluster of around 25% of milder runs, imagine if it had shown P28 instead.

[Mucka]

 

The graph shows the Op was on the milder side with -5 line now just being tickled on Xmas day.

[londonblizzard]

best set yet for 25th onwards, according to my eyes anyway. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by londonblizzard

[Daniel*]

It’s a pleasing trend 00z/06z/12z/18z each new ensemble suite the mean has lowered and gone further with colder outcomes In time for Xmas. That should inspire some confidence.

 

[Scott Ingham]

24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s a pleasing trend 00z/06z/12z/18z each new ensemble suite the mean has lowered and gone further with colder outcomes In time for Xmas. That should inspire some confidence.

 

The 18z ensembles are now resembling a genuine look you get for a cold spell. Actual clustering trying its best to slowly form round the -10 line 

[Timmytour]

On 11/12/2020 at 01:12, Timmytour said:

I still think there is some fallout from the direct Solar CME hit on earth to come and weather patterns will be disturbed for a little while before they settle down with a lot of model volatility until they do.

That said, although things don't look great on the surface for the short term just at the moment, I think there can still be a lot of optimism about the building blocks that are falling into place, that could end up giving us, in the end, quite a spectacularly cold January and February.

Just a shame it's January and February 2024.  Those darn building blocks are not the quickest! :)  

 

Wow!   The change in mood over the weekend!   I didn't expect such a fallout from the CME!  :)

[Mucka]

Good Morning.

GFS 00z Op much better than the 18z at day 10

Hopefully the ensembles will continue to firm up on this sort of outcome but we need ECM to come on board as well today.

It turns out to be a toppler as the usual shortwave spoiler manages to squeeze through preventing WAA into Greenland proper but it is a close run thing and plenty of scope for improvement.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

25 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good Morning.

GFS 00z Op much better than the 18z at day 10

Hopefully the ensembles will continue to firm up on this sort of outcome but we need ECM to come on board as well today.

It turns out to be a toppler as the usual shortwave spoiler manages to squeeze through preventing WAA into Greenland proper but it is a close run thing and plenty of scope for improvement.

Not a great GFS run to be honest...hoping to see a stonker at some point today, otherwise the feeling may be we won't see enough amplification once again to get a proper wintry blast.

[northwestsnow]

GFS keeps the faith for a colder snap over Christmas ....

Colder air filtering down from the 23rd..

And Christmas Eve night looks cold for Santa...

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS keeps the faith for a colder snap over Christmas ....

Colder air filtering down from the 23rd..

And Christmas Eve night looks cold for Santa...

 

Cold, but not snowy (except for a few E coastal areas) unfortunately

I think we all want more than 3C maxima and a couple of overnight frosts

Edited December 14, 2020 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Cold, but not snowy (except for a few E coastal areas) unfortunately

I can live with cold and frosty

Hate wind and rain on Christmas eve/day/Boxing day...

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not a great GFS run to be honest...hoping to see a stonker at some point today, otherwise the feeling may be we won't see enough amplification once again to get a proper wintry blast.

It is cold enough on the big day for a chance of snow, could be better, could be a lot worse.

A lot will depend on peoples expectations, if they are expecting  a cold spell over Xmas with lying snow they will likely be disappointed but at least they currently have a much better chance than the average Xmas.

There is going to be a fair bit of change yet either way so for now I'm just hoping the ensembles keep firming up on the amplification and some cold.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

Aberdeen gets a white Christmas on GFS as a trough drops down in the colder flow..

Of course semantics analysing a GFS op at that range but just highlighting its possible...

[Mucka]

GFS ensemble 10 day mean still looking pretty good though suggests a toppler if taken at face value. (don't do that )

But control run goes for W based neg NAO and the resulting Iberian ridge - nice WAA into Greenland though.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Mucka

[Daniel*]

Had a scan through all members and I’m seeing a lot of cold in there. Most have a transitory look to them but it looks to fall just right for big day. I like the look of P30.

 

A few with cold high pressure

[northwestsnow]

Big EC coming up for operation 'Save Santa' ...

FWIW ukmo was very similar to last nights EC at 168 so a reasonable chance this mornings ukmo would go on to produce something colder for Christmas...

Anything wintry doesn't look long lasting at this stage , Exeter hinting at a more zonal set up taking over later in the month so perhaps we are going to need some help from the background drivers ...

[Daniel*]

Looking good with Atlantic ridge.

[Griff]

Why didn't anyone show me yesterday's GFSP?  

 

More importantly this morning's gem says keep calm and carry on... 

[That ECM]

T144 for all 3. All looking ok for a seasonal feel over Christmas. where we go from there? I don’t think anyone really knows.

[Daniel*]

Actual cold air to NW en route. 

[Daniel*]

We will take that with open arms! Probably best so far from ECM. 
 

[northwestsnow]

EC looks excellent for coldies....

 

[That ECM]

T240 ecm and gfs. Similar, bound to be differences at that range. ECM preferred but they will both change I’m sure but as long as theme stays Christmas may feel like Christmas.