Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Uncertainy said:

 

However, there is no chance in the next decade that seasonal forecasting will be able to definitively tell you the weather on a particular day. Hell, the ECM can’t get day 9 right most of the time and how often is the 144 UKMO wrong? Seasonal forecasting is powerful in Winter and I imagine very useful for planners, government departments and gas distribution managers but they can’t and won’t be putting the remit of this thread out of business any time soon pal. 
 

That said the picture for Jan / Feb has been grim on the seasonals since August hence mine and other hope to cash in on the blocked December. All eyes then on that MJO passage later this month, should that fail... there may be dragons ahead

Yes, of course, artistic licence in my post, to be sure!

But seasonal forecasts in winter are actually getting quite good.  Not so summer.  Dragons ahead as you say: GFS 18z T192:

C00B3455-8E5B-4427-B939-489B4990CB84.thumb.png.1c760e24113c507d54971cda148db633.png

Can’t even see the UK under that!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, of course, artistic licence in my post, to be sure!

But seasonal forecasts in winter are actually getting quite good.  Not so summer.  Dragons ahead as you say: GFS 18z T192:

C00B3455-8E5B-4427-B939-489B4990CB84.thumb.png.1c760e24113c507d54971cda148db633.png

Can’t even see the UK under that!

Good that means it's trying to move east, moving some of the EU block away. Would be better if it wasn't a bowling ball, and would slide south east though, but I can't see that happening now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Just now, TSNWK said:

Flatten again upstream.. never mind...

goodnight

image.thumb.png.ceaffbe1dae208a6a9f6362f9ccdcd28.png

Let it develop, it’s different to the 12z....storming post t240 coming....and all is feasible still

 

 BFTP

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Never known this thread to be so downbeat on 11 December, and I've been following it for 15 years, the misery of 2020 truly taking over I feel this year more so than ever!  If continues, I may just shut off from it unfortunately, I did last February because it was such a doom monger of a place.

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

 

 

Sorry for copying blank post above, just a polite reminder if you want to call off chance of any cold weather this winter, please do so in the moan thread and not the model thread.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Despite the fairly Atlantic drivern setup on the models, I think it wouldn’t really take too much to at least squeeze in some kind of Northerly toppler or a North-Westerly flow for Christmas (but not impossible something more could happen). A Polar Maritime or Arctic Maritime flow with at least -7*C 850 hPa temperatures to bring wintry showers to places. Lower would be even better off course  Would inject some festivity to things. 

Some of this clearly providing that some of the High Pressure to our South-East over mainland Europe gets knocked out, so Lows can get sufficiently to the East of us to drag colder weather down between the West and North. No Azores High either trying to constantly ridge over to mainland Europe to prevent some of this cold reaching us. 

I think it’s a reachable scenario, if nothing else really. Quite easy, even if transient, for a mid-Atlantic ridge to turn up for the Christmas period combined with downstream Scandinavian trough giving something cold from the North-West, North or perhaps North-East. And there’s always a bit of a possibility of a runner Low bringing a surprise marginal sleet or snow event over Southern UK.

While the models can amplify the pressure patterns too much, it’s also not impossible for them to make things too flat. Just some reasons why that, although I feel somewhat doubtful at the moment of there being anything really cold and snowy, Christmas could easily pull off a bit of a white surprise ❄️

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Tidying up paragraphs
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Despite the fairly Atlantic drivern setup on the models, I think it wouldn’t really take too much to at least squeeze in some kind of Northerly toppler or a North-Westerly flow for Christmas (but not impossible something more could happen). A Polar Maritime or Arctic Maritime flow with at least -7*C 850 hPa temperatures to bring wintry showers to places. Lower would be even better off course  Would inject some festivity to things. 

Some of this clearly providing that some of the High Pressure to our South-East over mainland Europe gets knocked out, so Lows can get sufficiently to the East of us to drag colder weather down between the West and North. No Azores High either trying to constantly ridge over to mainland Europe to prevent some of this cold reaching us. 

I think it’s a reachable scenario, if nothing else really. Quite easy, even if transient, for a mid-Atlantic ridge to turn up for the Christmas period combined with downstream Scandinavian trough giving something cold from the North-West, North or perhaps North-East. And there’s always a bit of a possibility of a runner Low bringing a surprise marginal sleet or snow event over Southern UK.

While the models can amplify the pressure patterns too much, it’s also not impossible for them to make things too flat. Just some reasons why that, although I feel somewhat doubtful at the moment of there being anything really cold and snowy, Christmas could easily pull off a bit of a white surprise ❄️

Agree, just a bit of sharpening of the trough will allow colder uppers to infiltrate from the NW, signs of this from the models, and some colder conditions at times as we approach christmas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leuven, Belgium
  • Location: Leuven, Belgium

image.thumb.png.41fb20c334d30442862603632d863ba0.pngSeems like a bit of nasty weather next saturday, lots of rain and wind...not really what we're after ☹️

But I have a feeling some good 's gonna pop out at some point, hopefully before the new year...we deserve some winter after these crappy ones from the last 10 years

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All -

A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO continued to promote blocking out to day 6 however today the day 6 isnt really anything to like -

So with a heavy heart im already bowing out of the model output for Winter.

The time that I spend on here posting which is essentially a bit of 'me' time has slowly shrunk over the years to the point now where im on here when time is needed elsewhere with the kids & family.

I may well post in the regionals at the prospects of snow are local but my times up.

Stay safe.
Love your familes. ❤️

That's a shame, but I'm sure you'll be back when there is a prospect of cold weather within the 96 hr timeframe!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All -

A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO continued to promote blocking out to day 6 however today the day 6 isnt really anything to like -

So with a heavy heart im already bowing out of the model output for Winter.

The time that I spend on here posting which is essentially a bit of 'me' time has slowly shrunk over the years to the point now where im on here when time is needed elsewhere with the kids & family.

I may well post in the regionals at the prospects of snow are local but my times up.

Stay safe.
Love your familes. ❤️

Nice words Steve,the same to you and family...

Chin up mate, we may see something more palatable turn up in the modelling and there is plenty of time for changes...

But I'm not too different, getting cold to our shores in winter is becoming increasingly difficult it seems.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Milder Uk air being squeezed out from both sides. Scandi high developing? 

C68B3DA8-5E4F-4E6A-AF56-10A81B75B9D0.png

FBC00314-D251-4C3B-9768-2A5864D1B4A6.png

Some good WAA now that would stir the pot, I think we could actually do with a real warm spell with a Euro ridge and mild southerlies, if we are to see some meaningful blocking which given Greenland area appears to become inhospitable as TPV moves back, Scandinavia is the place. I don’t see how we would be able to break out the limbo of cool low pressure with no proper blocking to really push jet south enough, so would rather get a move on from that ASAP.

186DFB54-51DC-4B64-8330-4E776D052BB9.thumb.png.53c9ca34cefbe2b3ca3980ccc3824bb9.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I honestly can’t believe what I’m reading in here, yes ok it looks like some of the background signals have led us up the path again but they ent the be it and end all, there’s a lot more that goes on with the weather and it will continue to surprise us when it feels like not when the background decides. People giving up on winter on the 11th December when in reality it has hardly ever begun at this early stage. All it takes is for the low pressure to move a few hundred miles and we will be in the colder Northwesterly and then wintry weather will happen. Keep the faith people plenty of time yet

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All -

A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO continued to promote blocking out to day 6 however today the day 6 isnt really anything to like -

So with a heavy heart im already bowing out of the model output for Winter.

The time that I spend on here posting which is essentially a bit of 'me' time has slowly shrunk over the years to the point now where im on here when time is needed elsewhere with the kids & family.

I may well post in the regionals at the prospects of snow are local but my times up.

Stay safe.
Love your familes. ❤️

All the very best, Steve, and I can quite see why you have decided to focus on family priorities in this horrible year that we are all struggling with.  

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh what love your posts Steve. Look after yourself mate and the family . 
 

ps please come back

You will know when he's back....

.

Snow fest incoming.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Can understand how Steve feels. Seems so easy to get so carried away chasing cold weather in the models during Winter that quite a number of times never happens. Not to say it doesn’t occur at all, though, such as that February 2018 Easterly, or the Southern UK late-January 2019 snowfall. Starts becoming exhausting after a while frequently viewing charts. It’s fun looking at the models, reading what could happen, but I think for some of us, gets in the way of other life duties. Certainly when it becomes an addiction and is hard to tear away from always hoping that juicy Northerly, or Easterly, will make it down to day 0 lol

As Mikes says, it has been such a peculiar year. Do pray 2021 brings us something brighter and, if no luck during Christmas, something white for a number, too.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding some cold weather examples
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All -

A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO continued to promote blocking out to day 6 however today the day 6 isnt really anything to like -

So with a heavy heart im already bowing out of the model output for Winter.

The time that I spend on here posting which is essentially a bit of 'me' time has slowly shrunk over the years to the point now where im on here when time is needed elsewhere with the kids & family.

I may well post in the regionals at the prospects of snow are local but my times up.

Stay safe.
Love your familes. ❤️

This post genuinely brought a tear to my eyes...

you are a true star on here and will be solely missed but i cannot argue with what you say

take care mate and i still hope that you post as they are very valuable

as for the models:-

whilst we have Arctic heights still showing over the pole,there will be many flip flopping NWP'S in the next 7-10 days or so i can guarantee that

what i am saying is that the models perfect well in zonal weather but not in these situations that we have now,there is so many parcels of high pressure being modelled that the NWP's cannot handle,these little features will be modelled incorrectly at any given time more so the more out of the reliable timeframes we go

and there is no way that the models will forecast a Christmas whiteout or a BBQ on the day,so sit tight guys and take a break for a couple of days if it is getting to you,but like me(a hardened coldie) i am always on here regardless

take care all.

 

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I take some fault in that some say the EPS has got it wrong it has proved correct the hemispheric picture is abnormal I think it’s a matter of interpretation, people see anomalies/reds and think it means proper blocking it doesn’t. In grand scheme of things not a whole lot has changed from what I’ve seen looking at it, which is why I’m a bit puzzled the EPS has never suggested it was going to turn much colder I’ve only seen it return to near average values in London, albeit on face value there appears to be a lot of interest in pattern but that’s not necessarily truth.

C8FC8E52-17EB-4E44-854A-1D3F952C582C.thumb.gif.a54dda77ae652e1e23dead040095b823.gif

Edited by Daniel*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...