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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

Some cracking ensembles among the 18z suite. Most ending up cold - some taking a longer route than others. Trends going our way at the moment if you’re into proper winter weather. Overall - a good end to the day! ❄️ ⛄️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Extremely zonal

Yep...

for the Pacific 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Very good mean charts tonight. 

The 18z nearly there with retrogession of pv at the end of the run. 

If that occurs it seems inevitable that a Scandinavian trough would pull a cold ne flow this way. 

Fingers crossed we see that Arctic high continue to hold and strengthen. 

It has strengthened on every run Phil☺️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
47 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well that chart would tie in with what the ec46 dayer has been hinting at for Xmas week. Let’s see what the update is from the ec46 tomorrow. 

Incidently the CFS charts were fairly keen on a cold spell in early December several weeks beforehand which turned out correct! I remember seeing several charts on the 0z to 18z runs in early and mid November ranging between 1st December and 6th December for a cold spell (the week I was meant to be in the Scottish Highlands- now rebooked for 6th March)

 

But like 99% of people here I'm hoping its wrong for Christmas day on this run!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Lets see how advanced the Siberian trough has evolved over the last three days on the EPS...

07th December at 240                            08th December at 216                         09th December at 192

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.494383034689ee820332e0a79bc55c05.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.b2a5688772f1040980476e0aeedaff3f.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.thumb.png.7d052b8b03f46c82e2d2657bcc65b2ce.png

you can clearly see the trough extension out of Siberia heading SW towards NE Europe,also heights gaining into the Atlantic/Greenland area.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The mean starting to come down over the festive/Christmas period.

graphe3_1000_266_32___.thumb.png.e217d3b15a88ede4f965037c74c3e6ff.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Excellent stuff guys and thanks for waking me up from my slumber GFS.. Absolute crackers on these ens tonight, and I feel they are growing in numbers. I think this place is missing a Boom... Its been ages since we had one.. Certain charts deserve it, and some of these ensembles most definitely do...

gens-2-1-324.png

gens-2-0-324.png

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gens-3-0-252.png

gens-9-1-348.png

gens-9-0-360.png

gens-12-1-240.png

gens-15-1-360.png

gens-15-0-372.png

tenor-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

This the CFS MJO forecast is likely part of the reason why its most recent run is not showing as great a charts (for cold) as the likes of GFS. Everything at very low amplitude and around the COD according to this update, let's see if it flips on the next update

CFSO_phase_full.gif

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I have just ordered a snow plough for Christmas off Ebay for 5 quid...

e4b5aef4f3759173c452c11f75c1a554.thumb.jpg.5c6fbb4b9cdbb4582baa574043d3a6e3.jpg

i could do with something more appropriate if the gfs nails what it has been showing...

mercedes-autonomous-snow-plow.thumb.jpg.15ebe4da9302c165f741a06d4775d356.jpg

Great post's today/tonight,this is why i love this thread with hopefully a build up to a white Christmas 

there hasn't been many of those about

i am going to take a punt at the bookies tomorrow

night all.

P.S @Paul,no hunt for cold thread this season?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO 144

UN144-21.GIF?10-05

Something is afoot.

Not sure if it will turn out good or bad yet but I prefer the separation of lows instead of them phasing into one trough a la GFS

gfsnh-0-144.png

 

GFS has given up completely and decided to nuke the block - It's the only way to be sure

gfsnh-0-186.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS 0z is just pitiful to watch..

Flooding will be an issue if that run transpires...

UKMO looks slightly more appealing at 144 but the lows will probably end up slowing up near our shores soon after ...

47 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO 144

UN144-21.GIF?10-05

Something is afoot.

Not sure if it will turn out good or bad yet but I prefer the separation of lows instead of them phasing into one trough a la GFS

gfsnh-0-144.png

 

GFS has given up completely and decided to nuke the block - It's the only way to be sure

gfsnh-0-186.png

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 0z is just pitiful to watch..

Flooding will be an issue if that run transpires...

UKMO looks slightly more appealing at 144 but the lows will probably end up slowing up near our shores soon after ...

 

It isn't that good!

Merry Xmas 

gfsnh-0-360.png

The good thing is, it is about as likely as blizzards.

 

Around 50% of GFS ensembles keep the lows distinctly separate and generate a small Atlantic ridge like UKMO albeit there is scatter among those solutions as well.

Basically anything could happen before Xmas but any road to cold is not going to be straight forward.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Not great, but at least the low finally moves through at the end and hopefully the heights can build to our NW.

image.thumb.png.8365be38d0746da94b0b891925e1f97e.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 0z is just pitiful to watch..

Flooding will be an issue if that run transpires...

UKMO looks slightly more appealing at 144 but the lows will probably end up slowing up near our shores soon after ...

 

Yes nw 0z looks a bit woeful this morning. The ukmo isn't has as yesterday tbh and not sure what to make of it

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5 hours ago, phil nw. said:

Fingers crossed we see that Arctic high continue to hold and strengthen. 

 

It has vanished on the GFS 0z.

It'll be interesting to see how the 0z ensembles shape up in FI. The 18z had some really cold ones, the first time there's been a properly cold cluster:

53703781_Screenshot2020-12-10at04_57_00.thumb.png.fdaca8b72027befd4368af48ce5d1ecc.png

 

The problem is that imho anything past T168 is next to useless on the GFS these days. I've been monitoring it for months and it's all over the place with constant yoyo-ing.

I'm not sure if the word 'zonal' is inflammatory, although there's no reason why it should be especially given where we live, but let's just say that in the reliable timeframe we are in for a week of more Atlantic-influenced weather ... it certainly felt that way to me yesterday with the wind sweeping across the clifftops here in Poldark country. 

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
8 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but if we had of had super computers spitting our weather forecasts as we do now, then we would certainly have known a significant cold spell was coming. 

I just don't think things suddenly 'pop' out of nowhere. The models can flip and flap in FI but within the nearer time the changes are more nuanced and usually fairly well signposted.

I,d totally gree with that RD. Mind you even then  there,d still have been those picking up on mild solutions in the ensembles and telling us it would be zonality all the way to the end of Feb.

And the Meto outlook in Dec 62 would still have been as cautious as ever. I can just imagine it. ' towards Xmas winds may turn easterly or North easterly with temps dropping below average and showers becoming wintry especially over high ground"

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
32 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

It has vanished on the GFS 0z.

It'll be interesting to see how the 0z ensembles shape up in FI. The 18z had some really cold ones, the first time there's been a properly cold cluster:

53703781_Screenshot2020-12-10at04_57_00.thumb.png.fdaca8b72027befd4368af48ce5d1ecc.png

 

The problem is that imho anything past T168 is next to useless on the GFS these days. I've been monitoring it for months and it's all over the place with constant yoyo-ing.

I'm not sure if the word 'zonal' is inflammatory, although there's no reason why it should be especially given where we live, but let's just say that in the reliable timeframe we are in for a week of more Atlantic-influenced weather ... it certainly felt that way to me yesterday with the wind sweeping across the clifftops here in Poldark country. 

 

Certainly not inflammatory and call it as you see  it but I think there may be some mixing up of Zonal and unsettled/windy.

We can have a zonal pattern and be relatively settled in England if the lows pass N of Scotland as is fairly typical when the jet is more aligned toward us then we can get wet and windy weather but the lows pass through quickly (within 24 hours typically) but with another waiting in the wings all fed by the PV usually located around Greenland.

I can understand people saying Zonal when they are getting wet and windy weather but for us it refers to the W/E flow of lows. When that flow is interrupted by a high pressure cell or ridge the jet buckles or splits which causes the low pressures to stall and/or disrupt and split energy - especially if the block contains very cold air.

Below is our current situation with a block to our E stalling the Atlantic lows, note how the jet has "broken"

Blocked

gfsnh-5-156.pnggfsnh-0-156.png

 

And here is a fairly typical zonal pattern with jet powering across the Atlantic and UK and into Scandi

Zonal

gfsnh-2013121000-5-120.pnggfsnh-2013121000-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM 144 is more GFS than UKMO but with some differences.

ECH1-144.GIF?10-12

 

All this talk of zonal is jinxing things 

ECM 192, Arctic high having little influence and Scandi ridge much weaker, heights over Greenland lower. Just the hint of a ridge in the Atlantic

ECH1-192.GIF?10-12

 

The changes across the output seems to be pointing to a change of direction which may not be all bad.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Pert 5 would be bring us all a ❄️Very Merry Wintry Christmas ??☃️❄️ 

image.thumb.png.2e15a6bd889a7892e4b8e0c90444d4e7.pngimage.thumb.png.bb60d5d3b6c1967225e8d074227205e0.png

 

image.thumb.png.8963a51fd99aa97284c0173261ed7829.png

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