Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[jules216]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

And that’s without this  ‘deep cold’  to our east?  
 

BFTP

I am fortunate/unfortunate to be living in an inversion top spot in the context of the whole Europe. There were only few day of proper cold uppers present between 29/11 and 02/12 before hand under Euro high - the most anti cold pattern I was already tumbling to well below average temperatures as you can see on this weekly re=analysis. I happen to be located just above the darkest blue color contour near border with Hungary. Hence out of last 10 days I ve had 8 ice days. In the context of Britain that would be near historic cold spell  only joking of course. 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Was there not a 06z ecm update at one time!? If its available i wonder if it still shows the same as the 00z run?

 

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I believe this is only available to the boffins and was run only out to 180 hrs?

 

23 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Managed to find ecm 06z!!same as the 00z and further south than the gfs!!!

The 06z ec op and mean is pretty snowy for swathes of s U.K. inc the midlands

I’m ignoring it !

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by bluearmy

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

The 06z ec op and mean is pretty snowy for swathes of s U.K. 

I’m ignoring it !

 

I mean looking at the pressure charts gfs has two lows but more elongated and further east where as the ecm seems to have maybe joined both lows to the east which causes it to be deeper!!do you think its the depth of the low that has created the more widespread snow for england?

[Nick F]

06z ECMWF still has a snow signal across SE England Friday morning - which then extends N and NW across the Midlands, Peak District and N Wales through the day,

Very marginal, higher ground favoured, but with stronger vorticity wrapping around the southern side of the upper low across S England than the other models, EC breaks out heavier ppn on western flank of the low that develops from a wave moving across the south Thursday evening, then moves from SE England in the morning up towards the Humber on Friday afternoon,  The heavy ppn. on the western flank of the low also falls where colder polar air is entrenched, which ill in turn lower the wet bulb freezing level / enhances evaporative cooling. DPs very marginal though, even west of the low. Showers spreading from the east coast likely to bring snow to higher ground further north across northern England and Scotland too, especially higher ground.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I mean looking at the pressure charts gfs has two lows but more elongated and further east where as the ecm seems to have maybe joined both lows to the east which causes it to be deeper!!do you think its the depth of the low that has created the more widespread snow for england?

EC's current output is predicated on the small low steve mentioned earlier which forms in the base of the upper trough and runs early fri morning ...its unlikely to be accurately modelled at the moment and the snowfall seems totally related to intensity of precip

[TSNWK]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

The 06z ec op and mean is pretty snowy for swathes of s U.K. inc the midlands

I’m ignoring it !

 

Stuff that.. I shall be printing,frameing and banking it

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EC's current output is predicated on the small low steve mentioned earlier which forms in the base of the upper trough and runs early fri morning ...its unlikely to be accurately modelled at the moment and the snowfall seems totally related to intensity of precip

Euro4 has the exact same low in the same place at 48 hours!!but for some reason not as much precipitation as ecm!!!would love the 12zs to sort this out but i highly doubt it

[SMU]

29 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Euro4 has the exact same low in the same place at 48 hours!!but for some reason not as much precipitation as ecm!!!would love the 12zs to sort this out but i highly doubt it

thats because you would beed a T51 chart for Euro 4 

[snowking]

Which you can find here:

Model charts for United Kingdom (Significant Weather) | EURO-4 (2 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

---

EURO-4 (2 days) - Current forecast valid for 12/04/2020, 09:00am of parameter "Significant Weather", model chart for map...

Primarily rain across Southern areas, that is really down to the precipitation intensity  on the western flank being far weaker than on the ECMWF 0s, as mentioned earlier in this thread, and you can see below (Euro 4 left, ECM right):

Let's hope the ECM ends up nearer the mark

[Frosty.]

Is there a SSW event I’m not aware of?...because the Gfs / Gefs in particular are churning out some astonishing charts that remind me a lot of the epic December 10 years ago?!...fingers crossed, if the 6z verified it would be a very merry Christmas for netweather coldies!!   ️ 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Jon Snow

[SussexSnow]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Is there a SSW event I’m not aware of?...because the Gfs / Gefs in particular are churning out some astonishing charts that remind me a lot of the epic December 10 years ago?!...fingers crossed, if the 6z verified it would be a very merry Christmas for netweather coldies!!  

 

Are they 3 different perturbations?   

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Is there a SSW event I’m not aware of?...because the Gfs / Gefs in particular are churning out some astonishing charts that remind me a lot of the epic December 10 years ago?!...fingers crossed, if the 6z verified it would be a very merry Christmas for netweather coldies!!   ️ 

 

It's what happens when the strat and trop stay decoupled. The trop is basically running the show at present and promoting a bottom up, trop led warming of the strat in the process.

[sheikhy]

22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

thats because you would beed a T51 chart for Euro 4 

12zs out in a few!!!start with the icon first but am gona paying much closer attention to gfs!!!i pray ecm is right

[BlueHedgehog074]

Thanks for providing the above link Snowking, that is really useful. 

@Jon Snow That is some epic Greenland blocking on the above chart. Impressively long North-Easterly fetch through the UK. That’s what heaven would look like 

@SussexSnow Looks to me like it’s all from the GFS 06Z operational model towards the end of its run

 

In fact, I’m surprised I didn’t look at the 06Z GFS earlier lol

Certainly will be some intriguing 12Z runs coming up, though. Hopefully not toy-throwing runs

Edited December 2, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[SussexSnow]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Thanks for providing the above link Snowking, that is really useful. 

@Jon Snow That is some epic Greenland blocking on the above chart. Impressively long North-Easterly fetch through the UK. That’s what heaven would look like 

@SussexSnow Looks to me like it’s all from the GFS 06Z operational model towards the end of its run

 

In fact, I’m surprised I didn’t look at the 06Z GFS earlier lol

Shame - I saw the Ops run, but was hoping there was solid support in the ensemble as well.  Fingers crossed for the 12Z run!

[johnholmes]

Can I just add a note of caution to folk fairly new to model outputs.

The hardest wx factor to get correct is ppn. In summer it can be not very accurate even 24 hours from T+00. There is really only one parameter to worry about, will it rain or not on 'me'.

In winter when snow MAY occur there are at least 8 other factors to take into account. Do try to remember this when reading posts or looking at charts.

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Thanks for providing the above link Snowking, that is really useful. 

@Jon Snow That is some epic Greenland blocking on the above chart. Impressively long North-Easterly fetch through the UK. That’s what heaven would look like 

@SussexSnow Looks to me like it’s all from the GFS 06Z operational model towards the end of its run

 

In fact, I’m surprised I didn’t look at the 06Z GFS earlier lol

And at T+384, what chance can I ask?

[SussexSnow]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

And at T+384, what chance can I ask?

Given it was probably the only pert in the ensemble showing that - it's at best 1 in 30

Edit to add: 1 in 30 for that specific outcome, but there are other cold outcomes in there.

Edited December 2, 2020 by SussexSnow

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

And at T+384, what chance can I ask?

Probably as much chance as Santa putting on a Spider-Man suit and climbing up a building with his eyes closed

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, SussexSnow said:

Given it was probably the only pert in the ensemble showing that - it's at best 1 in 30

Edit to add: 1 in 30 for that specific outcome, but there are other cold outcomes in there.

more like 1 in 300 Nick

[johnholmes]

Just now, johnholmes said:

more like 1 in 300

sorry misread name-my apologies

 

[SussexSnow]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

 

No problem.  

I was here under my actual name here in the past, but that account got locked.  

Edited December 2, 2020 by SussexSnow

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

more like 1 in 300 Nick

Hello John I've always had a respect for your NOAA / ??? 6-10 & 11-14 day mean charts - was wondering if they are picking up on anything similar to the end of  past couple of GFS Runs  or not? 

[nick sussex]

Interesting to see whether it’s the ECM or the other models which have to undertake a backtrack .

The latest ICON continues to follow this mornings ECM run upto day 6 . Over to the GFS now.

[weirpig]

Latest icon is an improvement  for some to see a few flakes    on Thursday  especially  midlands north  looks very marginal though 

Edited December 2, 2020 by weirpig