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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Looks like we aren't going to get our desired wintry wishes from any potential sliders for the foreseeable. It won't be cold enough. So failing this, I would certainly settle for some much needed dry weather. Ecm offers hope of that this morning so I hope it is correct. A nice frosty run up to Christmas would be most agreeable. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
5 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Time to rollout the GFS parallel run as it’s showing something interesting.

85C9897D-CE68-4D11-9751-0638C6D9C701.png

Please help.i can't understand  the need for this model. Why when there is the other GFS? What's the point?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Please help.i can't understand  the need for this model. Why when there is the other GFS? What's the point?

I think it eventually becomes the updated GFS after any issues are ironed out.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Please help.i can't understand  the need for this model. Why when there is the other GFS? What's the point?

It brings hope something to look at if nothing else. Nothing wintry imo during the next 10 days

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS seems quite reasonable with the Atlantic ridging punching NE after d8 and cutting off an upper-low that displaces the Azores plume to Iberia and pumping up a high to the UK:

anim_fdk4.gif

A similar outcome would be expected on the ECM around that time?

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGFS 06 z for 18th Dec

GFS 06 z offers a nice settled pre Christmas High pressure right over us ( 1040 hPa ) ....... hard frosts !

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
42 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM/UKMO at day 6 very similar.

966FB8A9-2D83-42C8-9740-A3B662E5BD63.thumb.gif.8f7a77ad31cc0de799fd41463bbe2c05.gif0CBCE3AC-98E6-4876-A8E4-29E07BD3B5E8.thumb.gif.945fc6fce414e6c46b9aa1b371cf9c7c.gif
 

Then there’s GFS..

Might as well press the DELETE button on the rest of the gfs from that point onwards.Laughable difference.

 

giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

The GFS does look very isolated at t144.

15B6D0FE-ACA9-468C-902F-27716614B3CC.png

AF89BB1F-0334-4D1B-A7FA-D2D6B880ECEB.gif

21E50087-B925-47D9-8134-394C02429BF2.gif

AAEAD2CC-C2FA-45EB-A98D-87AEF20CB40B.png

EAF6A4E3-3BB5-455F-A33B-A49EE9E0DEF5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Meanwhile in deepest Europe, horrid conditions today. Heavy rain in warm sector with snow  line 18OOm. Not able to speak with our forecasting portal team on a Sunday but looking at the latest runs at  06t there is a difference even at 120h between ICON and GFS model. The later ramping up a weakening of the core Russian High with a more maritime flow into the British Isles , however the ICON still has backing of the flow with the ridge still in evidence to the north and east. Probably still not resolved yet for the end of this coming week. Maybe this evening or in the morning there will be a level concensus in the main model outputs within  a feasible time span out to 144t.  Will get an update from the team over here in the morning.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

There are so many lows and shortwaves flopping about on the latest GFS how can it be expected to model everything correctly even in the short term.

It some of the messiest looking charts I've seen in years.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well I guess in some ways, an omega block over the U.K. isn’t a bad place to be going into the middle of the month.

GFS

image.thumb.png.98e0e4dcbacffbee980497f553f809b2.png
 

image.thumb.png.b0a284dcc1af2ec1f2e91f2e97623160.png

 

ECM day 10

image.thumb.gif.b3b3b8bf8ff85c1b9457ae47da121c45.gif
 

Two ECM operational on the bounce and other models shifting that way makes it a probably option going forward into week two. Though caveats on there being a large amount of uncertainty given how things are at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
53 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Time to rollout the GFS parallel run as it’s showing something interesting.

85C9897D-CE68-4D11-9751-0638C6D9C701.png

Well *clutches nearest straw*, if that is the supposed new version of the GFS then this could be a good thing, right? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What a spiffing Sunday so far isn’t it!...anyhoo, looking at the GEFS 6z mean, temps continue generally below average ( rather cold ) up to and including Thursday...but then, unless my eyes ? ?  deceive me, the trend is milder..at least for a time anyway!...have a spiffing day!..

5E89BBA0-4788-4537-BAE9-90D9D37D3BD7.thumb.png.c51d1ab9ae7097a6a057fc5ce5243d0e.png83A55A19-43D2-4C57-9ECE-7A0B8FA71FEE.thumb.png.171414d90c38a6e957f8e30599a0595b.png

 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
3 hours ago, captaincroc said:

I'm not hopecasting here but a couple of days ago it looked like the Atlantic was coming back, with different models at some points showing a westerly regime taking hold... Now, yes there isn't much deep cold about but at one point last week we would have killed for all three 144hr charts to look like this...

image.thumb.png.6ad481224b953ac420f7c438c0c84f17.png

image.thumb.png.6f6a90793a1ae46ce68e240938f0f197.png

image.thumb.png.12613fdbf65740bdff8d2a632df012a8.png

Yes after that it does go t*ts up but we are told many times the models don't like unusual synoptics... and this is that. Would take much of a tweak for more energy to go south in the jet and change everything completely.  Only 24 hours ago the GFS has a balloon low, where now has a slider...same with MetO 144hr chart a day or so ago, now they all slide. With all those changes, I am not throwing in the towel just yet.  

From the posts before this, I thought all models had gone with, the low ballooning, like GFS yesterday. Looks like that has now resolved as a slider, so what are people worried about. It's December not February, plenty of time, for the cold to build. Now what happens after will be resolved in a few days. Plus in these times even this low can still change, just hopefully not back to the balloon. I think it will move further south in future runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Thanks Nick BA ( not Baracus) for your valued thoughts...

The notion of a ridging Az high with the inevitable height rise across Europe is of course a risky evolution .

We need that ridge as far north as possible ,I'm hoping there is enough relaxation in the Northern arm to allow for something akin to GFS 6Z...

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Looking across the extended ens you would say that the scrussian block will remain the main feature and everything else can be placed anywhere !  blocking to bring nw european deep cold would have to be to our north or northeast  methinks - so an easterly of sorts and unlikely to be much before Xmas ...... a five day snowstorm when we’re allowed to mix would cheer up the medics!  

 this morning it’s seems that we’ve travelled the last few days from a position where many were hoping for a wintry blast around mid month and now it’s likely another week on from that before it could transpire ....... not in a position where we can discount deep winter for 15/20th just yet but the trend away from that possibility is certainly gaining traction ..... 

-AAM was always due to relax for mid month hence I anticipated mid level blocking and a UK high for Christmas. Its a case of modeling struggling yet again with pacific forcing only the other way round this time 

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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny

I would rather have signals for a constant wintry nirvana, but in the absence of that particular fantasy, the evolution of the GFS 6z past D10 is ok for me. Dry weather, and plenty of frosts you would hope. Also with a big chunk of vortex pushed over to Russia, is there a potential for heights to retrogress to Greenland?

A50E6A5E-25F6-4FB1-825C-14ED4671788A.png

Edited by DavidS
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.3816a61d6c367fe4f8f65706cacf2b92.png

La la land but certainly would feel seasonal as we approach the shorterest days...

There's my last week in December UK high again. It doesnt happen often but ny winter forecast is like clockwork atm haha

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GFS 6z op / GEFS 6z mean seem too be on the same or at least a similar page long term..settled, however the position (orientation) of any anticyclone would be preety crucial!..hoping for some chilly nights at least...I guess, if we can’t have the holy grail...snow..hopefully we could have some frosts & freezing fog..Shirley not too much to ask is it?..although this is the u k..not Finland, so perhaps it is to much to ask!:reindeer-emoji:

50E9AB9C-688C-4048-B760-182D17079C1D.thumb.png.abaabcbeeab4a9d5db8d5ea620029533.pngB34A29D6-D405-4CAB-A6D6-FCDF42C4E929.thumb.png.694af0be635cc53116df1ffc378e39ee.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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