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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


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Posted
  • Location: Cliftonville, Isle of Thanet, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme seasons
  • Location: Cliftonville, Isle of Thanet, Kent

    Temperatures still below as we head the through next week where it looks like a gradual return to a westerly flow is now inevitable. Really itching for a cold spell right now like I’m sure many others are on this forum. The lack of cold across nw Europe at the moment is quite staggering. At this rate it going to be late December moving into jan before our hopes of a cold shot come to fruition.

    Edited by Shere Khan
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    For once a tendency to under amplify the pattern. I wonder how much of our current "surprise" (I'll admit to being a bit surprised at the winter positives of the current phase) is down to poor modelli

    Some folk need to understand that this thread is to discuss the model outputs that be 6hr out or 2 weeks. Also if folk are looking for there 1st snowflake of the season using said models that's absolu

    Secretly admit, that snowy ECMWF chart for Friday for the Midlands and South-East looked Winter-ful and has got me a little excited. 🙈 Even though it could quite easily not happen. Must remember now y

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Possible retrogression (sort of) signal on today's GFS 00Z at -- don't laugh -- t+384?🦄

    h500slp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    Possible retrogression (sort of) signal on today's GFS 00Z at -- don't laugh -- t+384?🦄

    h500slp.png

    Now that is clutching

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Nothing too exciting being modelled - all very average. At least I’ve had lying snow this winter - not expecting any more, because that’s the default.

    It’s the usual fare in here - day 10, potential, further down the line etc.

    I wouldn’t rule out something very cold. But on current output, it’s highly unlikely and there is very little cold around in Europe.

     

     

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    When I saw the ECM 0z operational, my first thought 💭 was...go back to bed..and then I thought again, and my second thought was..go back to bed..so it’s decided, I’ll retire to bedlam and possibly emerge if this becomes a hot 🥵  topic again! 🛌 😜 😴 💤 

    DCED76B5-C47B-4B57-97F4-F0B5719AE372.thumb.png.51767ae4919d15bbde548ef25e87ae6e.png5C93EA0A-0061-4CC3-818F-6EA24477788F.thumb.png.85d2a438d1504e1e1b2572f0eb771142.png37C085F2-E89F-4368-89D4-D0E8BFD8BDFC.thumb.png.4d827b7f366d64036dd66e81beedfa22.png56129864-91D4-4E0E-A1D6-5979953D4886.thumb.png.0c5e875d45862924766e55770c25930a.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    21 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    He said it’s ‘turning milder’ which the ensembles are showing support for.

     

    which planet do some folk live on ? Planet of denial ?

    ECM was a big mild outlier at the end for a start.But carry on that milder is a certainty...

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC heading for a cold spell this morning...

    Haven't a clue if it is right though.

    Too much volatility at present to make a call where we are heading.

    Yes ec in fi is dry, cool /cold and a lot of blocking. Been worse mid December if correct 🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Looking across the extended ens you would say that the scrussian block will remain the main feature and everything else can be placed anywhere !  blocking to bring nw european deep cold would have to be to our north or northeast  methinks - so an easterly of sorts and unlikely to be much before Xmas ...... a five day snowstorm when we’re allowed to mix would cheer up the medics!  

     this morning it’s seems that we’ve travelled the last few days from a position where many were hoping for a wintry blast around mid month and now it’s likely another week on from that before it could transpire ....... not in a position where we can discount deep winter for 15/20th just yet but the trend away from that possibility is certainly gaining traction ..... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton

    Well, on that latest 00 GFS run, looks like there will be a huge amount of Bing Crosby playing & praying for a white christmas again in the UK (those who want it of course!).

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    ECM was a big mild outlier at the end for a start.But carry on that milder is a certainty...

    ...looking at the mean for ECM upper temps and it is clear there is strong support at d8-d10 for a less cooler upper-air profile:

    anim_pkw2.gif

    Feeling seasonal I would have thought and no zonal washout. As expected the ECM op is a bit off after D8-9, which is typical for the op at that range in these setups:

    op>>1685478113_ECE1-240(1).thumb.gif.8261c76d41f0476356e7bd0a18602ca6.gif mean at d10>> EDE1-240.thumb.gif.fc242a89b79b5626f2f0af7af6f46965.gif

    Still not really sure where we go post-d8, not feeling it for any of the ops this morning, maybe we will end with a mish-mash?

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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft

    As Sheiky isn't here... 😂

    At 105hr the Icon 6z is looking better with more heights to our N and NE.

    0z

    image.thumb.png.82f5a6e31c7c186d35a24da3b77fa5e4.png

    6z

    image.thumb.png.91a591ee26f8b8862950837485be6643.png

    Edited by captaincroc
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Personally I think there is enough in the mean to suggest a weakening of the Atlantic and HP to the East/ NE becoming more influential...

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    10 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

    As Sheiky isn't here... 😂

    At 105hr the Icon 6z is looking better with more heights to our N and NE.

    0z

    image.thumb.png.82f5a6e31c7c186d35a24da3b77fa5e4.png

    6z

    image.thumb.png.91a591ee26f8b8862950837485be6643.png

    Minor adjustments.. within a broader scale that appears to be continuing the Mexican standoff between the East and West.  My positive is the tone of message last night from some seasoned posters.. that I took that we are currently moving the chess big pieces into place for something more interesting for coldies!  but like an  oil tanker it's a slow cumbersome journey..

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    GFS yesterday day 5

     

    38E24603-833F-47D0-9342-5792804B2CD0.thumb.jpeg.9ede3b3deb29694719c1db8782450ad0.jpeg

     

    and today day for the same time......

    F2A07C20-FF15-46F0-8A7C-3949C8325F96.thumb.jpeg.55f0b3bfbe0de640b49a827ccc224f61.jpeg

     

    Not seeing much difference on  the day for us.. but would I be right in thinking the stronger heights around sallvbard are an indicator of where we might be heading. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    He said it’s ‘turning milder’ which the ensembles are showing support for.

     

    which planet do some folk live on ? Planet of denial ?

    He seemed to be claiming victory for something that has not occurred yet, still cold in the immediate and near future...

    No need for turd polishing, stick to the brass 😁

    Edited by ribster
    Nonsense
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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM 240hrs is very exciting with the high pressure to the east and building to the west northwest 

     it is ten days out but great to see for cold lovers.The charts three weeks before Christmas in my

    opinion is as good as you can hope for great watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Not seeing much difference on  the day for us.. but would I be right in thinking the stronger heights around sallvbard are an indicator of where we might be heading. 

    More to do with the position of the low to NW I would suggest.👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    ECM/UKMO at day 6 very similar.

    966FB8A9-2D83-42C8-9740-A3B662E5BD63.thumb.gif.8f7a77ad31cc0de799fd41463bbe2c05.gif0CBCE3AC-98E6-4876-A8E4-29E07BD3B5E8.thumb.gif.945fc6fce414e6c46b9aa1b371cf9c7c.gif
     

    Then there’s GFS...

    56C818FC-FBDE-4F5D-9FCC-F46B03AA4034.thumb.png.8e821c516f0741a942fd41ba693f0f47.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    I can def see the "potential" in the current pattern in our region for something colder, but I am now convinced that we will need a nudge from upstream to break the deadlock between west -v- east, in favour of the east. The D7 chart shows that we have a relatively flat upstream:

     gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.864d0083f23ee8b539cce1612ea1557b.png

    Whereas the current synoptic was aided and abetted by the upstream Alaskan wave:

    Dec 2 chart>> gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.034fb73fe06699fcebc48abd86730530.png

    I think the NH pattern is there for the taking but we simply cannot get the background forcing that the Twittersphere are alluding to. 

    No change on the 06z, five runs in a row having the UK in the auspices of a trough (cut-off low) from d5-d9. difference is the 06z more progressive than 0z in dismantling the current setup. D9:

    gfseu-0-222.thumb.png.5fe4c097b2be58ccdf79bea15e731ee3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    Time to rollout the GFS parallel run as it’s showing something interesting.😂

    85C9897D-CE68-4D11-9751-0638C6D9C701.png

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