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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    31 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

    I think it's more that people recognise that you have a lot of knowledge and are interested in your take of what the models and longer range drivers suggest to you. 

    It may be true that most people would do so with the hope of encouragement for cold, but nevertheless I think most people just appreciate an informed take, whatever it suggests. 

    Aye. I do though take the lack of posts from or total absence of certain posters as a hint to what their take on developments is, at least in terms of how interesting things are looking in their view.

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    For once a tendency to under amplify the pattern. I wonder how much of our current "surprise" (I'll admit to being a bit surprised at the winter positives of the current phase) is down to poor modelli

    Some folk need to understand that this thread is to discuss the model outputs that be 6hr out or 2 weeks. Also if folk are looking for there 1st snowflake of the season using said models that's absolu

    Secretly admit, that snowy ECMWF chart for Friday for the Midlands and South-East looked Winter-ful and has got me a little excited. 🙈 Even though it could quite easily not happen. Must remember now y

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    To all those that think that Euro heights can't lead to anything cold at very low short notice, think again. I still can't get my head around how things changed so dramatically within 4 days in Jan 47.

    Screenshot_20201205-234451.png

    Screenshot_20201205-234550.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Gefs by day 8 build some euro heights and place the jet sw/ne ........

    Noticed that

    get some WAA through NW Europe into the Urals wouldn't be a bad thing Blue

    i do think this is a new trend starting to appear.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    To all those that think that Euro heights can't lead to anything cold at very low short notice, think again. I still can't get my head around how things changed so dramatically within 4 days in Jan 47.

    Screenshot_20201205-234451.png

    Screenshot_20201205-234550.png

    Not at bad attempt at a 1947 reset 

    Screenshot_20201205-235426.png

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

    Is this now the no pub run?

    Must be in a tier three area, no pubs open to get drunk in.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

    As soon as you see the ever predictable target low on the GFS you know that the only option is to throw darts at it lol

    I might get mine out and do just that next time lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    Some interesting Synoptics starting to kick around in the GEFS enS tonight , quite impressive profiles from a hemispheric perspective, even if only as a trend indicator at this point

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    It's anything but...PSL

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.c12a2a35900c7e5362785693ee013155.png

    blocking over Scandinavia with trough suppressed over or near the UK,hugh trough down the eastern states that would promote even more upstream ridging into the Atlantic joining forces with the Scandi/Urals block and to boot cross polar ridging with the Pacific ridge

    this in turn looks bloody good to me😏

    we are in a good position here and i cannot give you further upgrades as the month ticks on,good prospects for a snowy Christmas could be odds on

    going up to the peak district tomorrow to stretch my legs and chill out

     

    night guys.

     

     

    The lack of ice in the Arctic ? And lack of punch in any Northerlies ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
    2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

    This would make most UK coldies happy 😊 

    Screenshot_20201206-002422.png

    BANK!!! A shame it's in deep F.I, but, it's very early days for this Winter and anything is possible 😁 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    The UKMO seems mildly consistent this morning to 12Z which makes a change.

    B01D0D43-B728-4643-AB0E-C0FDA13E0D16.thumb.gif.2984252084a4b16e45f35ad812e9e28e.gif256FB41C-1386-4171-82C7-3FB52176DC4F.thumb.gif.4d64ddc38fe442c7c463632cf32399ab.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It’s gone quiet again..ah I c..a nod is as good as a wink to a blind bat 😜🙃🦇 

    5FEF1334-0746-44C3-84C6-81E161899A58.thumb.png.676fa21a5b1ad8c892e01294b9e4aa44.pngA6D25081-EF39-4D94-96AA-A4A0B4E08602.thumb.png.e964e11d73e05a99fb36f997b603564f.pngBAE51FC0-6CF0-46D6-BD75-1A2594BA4C48.thumb.png.441d557a143a5a2b6c095a6a8a241c84.pngB231CB3F-FE38-4311-9B1C-DE2BD274EC52.thumb.png.b3cf6aeb5714dbebc10ead4f86b9e250.png8349100F-DC06-45C7-B15E-D4AF4E9FC657.thumb.png.eb795bf20c48d5a4d477f2d90936159b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Ecm day 8....the pesky Russian high still calling the shots......If id doesnt do one soon ill be decorating xmas table with daffodils! 😂🤐

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Ecm day 8....the pesky Russian high still calling the shots......If id doesnt do one soon ill be decorating xmas table with daffodils! 😂🤐

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

    It’s not the worst chart in the world.  Pattern is very amplified - longer term from here could be interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T216 gfs &ecm that’s cleared it up then.🤣 ecm t240 is a rare chart for December.

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    3B7D42CD-0D9B-4F47-8998-BA416B74EE3B.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    It’s not the worst chart in the world.  Pattern is very amplified - longer term from here could be interesting!

    Agreed, at least its 'different' and certainly by day 10 looks like a chart you shou.d expect in May than December with the Atlanic systems no where to be seen 😮

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian

    well il be darned, i’m glad i stuck to my own thoughts on it turning milder instead of many peoples ideas and trying to put twists on the charts to provide cold. You can’t polish a turd (joby)

    Certainly an upward trend in temps for sure 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    16 minutes ago, dragan said:

    well il be darned, i’m glad i stuck to my own thoughts on it turning milder instead of many peoples ideas and trying to put twists on the charts to provide cold. You can’t polish a turd (joby)

    Certainly an upward trend in temps for sure 

    Next 4 - 5 days look pretty chilly? Beyond that is just model fantasy - ensembles show both mild and cold solutions. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GFS consistent with the post-d6 outlook, the west -v- east conflab, but on this run, the Atlantic eventually decides to avoid the Russian high by traversing it. This allows the Azores high to push the jet north and UK high:

    gfs D8+ >>> anim_zwx2.gif ecm>> anim_zag9.gif

    I am not sure it will go this way. ECM has the trough at d6 squished by Azores and Russian high forcing (typical over-amp ECM?), another possibility, leading to a similar outcome at d10+? GEM continues the standoff and by d10 no resolution, a possibility, but GFS has moved away from this now, and GEM may still be behind the curve. All have to varying degrees abandoned medium-term undercutting, so wedges of heights to our north is now the best outcome (GEM!).

    Assuming the trend as it is, then a breakdown of the current pattern, highlighted initially by gfs, is more than likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    45 minutes ago, dragan said:

    well il be darned, i’m glad i stuck to my own thoughts on it turning milder instead of many peoples ideas and trying to put twists on the charts to provide cold. You can’t polish a turd (joby)

    Certainly an upward trend in temps for sure 

    Dont believe the gfs so much if I was you🙄.Anything that model shows after about 5 days should be largely ignored,its always way to progressive with the Atlantic in these type of scenarios,watch it backtrack in the coming days AGAIN

     

    And why do some posters post day TEN mean charts POINTLESS,even more so at the moment with so much uncertainty in the atmosphere.

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    52 minutes ago, dragan said:

    well il be darned, i’m glad i stuck to my own thoughts on it turning milder instead of many peoples ideas and trying to put twists on the charts to provide cold. You can’t polish a turd (joby)

    Certainly an upward trend in temps for sure 

    Has it turned milder? Still freezing outside here...

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    1 minute ago, ribster said:

    Has it turned milder? Still freezing outside here...

    He said it’s ‘turning milder’ which the ensembles are showing support for.

     

    which planet do some folk live on ? Planet of denial ?

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