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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

    COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

    We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    I hope the pub run had a substantial meal with its alcohol, maybe a scotch egg.😉

    Not a bad run though, glad to see the blocking signal is at least still there despite the messy run earlier on.

    4DE25C21-80B4-4EF0-A727-B8E22C3CB2AE.png

    Edited by Frosty Winter
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Arpege the realist/worthy model imo.. but as -again in nowcast scenarios 👌

    The pac- ridge that’s been foe(previous seasons).. looks lively for becoming friend..!!!

    Yes i touched up on this the other day(+pna) that will force trough in eastern states and amplify ridge in the Atlantic,but is this the player,i am torn between Atlantic/Scurasian ridge at the moment as is the NWP'S

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

    COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

    We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

    As a very small Chinese man once said 

    "Patience Daniel son" 

    Cold wrap around coming at 306. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    No point going into too much detail but the repositioning of heights through the 2nd half of the pub run would certainly put us in a better position. Core heights between Scotland and Norway and finally a chance for cold air to move west/south west through Europe thanks to that developing trough over Western Russia.

    image.thumb.png.ac6930640116e56083f49b825de9c03b.png
     

    Back in the earlier ranges, a pretty poor interaction between some of those areas of low pressure allow temperatures to recover somewhat after the coming weekend. This hasn’t changed occurred on the other runs tonight though, which keep the 850s below 0c throughout.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

    COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

    We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

    Do you really believe it though? Firstly it is the gfs 18z pub run. Secondly we all know how the models can underestimate the upper temps in these situations until much closer to the time. Thirdly........ Well, as already said, it is the gfs pub run so it won't be anything like what it is showing anyway lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The elements are still there for some type of blocking but will we benefit from this is another question?

    but the 18z is giving me palpitations to say the least,in a good way.

    goodnight all.

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    The 18z has had a blocked pattern throughout for the last 4 nights, it then gets dropped for the 00z, 06z, 12z and then it re-appears again on the 18z. Starting to wonder if there's an issue with that run, maybe lack of data? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

    The 18z has had a blocked pattern throughout for the last 4 nights, it then gets dropped for the 00z, 06z, 12z and then it re-appears again on the 18z. Starting to wonder if there's an issue with that run, maybe lack of data? 

    Today's 6z was blocked?

    gfsnh-0-342.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    The 18z has had a blocked pattern throughout for the last 4 nights, it then gets dropped for the 00z, 06z, 12z and then it re-appears again on the 18z. Starting to wonder if there's an issue with that run, maybe lack of data? 

    I’ve noticed that the 6:00 runs have tended to favour blocking recently only to revert on the 12:00 runs. The back end of the 00z today was also blocked though. But even if there is an issue with the GFS, the ECMWF/GEM runs have mostly been blocked recently as well.

    97EA3B31-A1CF-46BA-B106-F272D08DA4B1.png

    Edited by Frosty Winter
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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    @booferking Was gonna say, the GFS 06Z indeed had quite a lot of great blocking around, especially that build of heights over our North-West towards Iceland and into Greenland. Hopefully the GFS will work up a big headache from all the drinks it has had with the NAVGEM tonight at the pub, that it will get repeated again on tomorrow’s 06Z run...

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    46 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

    COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

    We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

    Yep charts are more like October in terms of upper air temperatures but no doubt climate change has some influence in this, I doubt you will see such a lack of cold back in the 70s under similar conditions. 

    So cold and at times wet it is with a chance of snow in some lucky spots but very transient in nature. I think the more noteworthy feature will be the wind, quite a nasty low really. Don't think it be much fun on the east coast this weekend. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The end stages of the 0z GFS are synoptically stunning. Nothing marginal about those uppers heading towards us.

    The dream.

    Indeed , 

    And when it theoretically should be rampant , the vortex is marmalized

     

     

    76D5D945-0EAC-4A12-9CC7-D94A604B1847.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Yes, and after such a crap year, it would be amazing to set up a winter wonderland just in time for Christmas.

    As BA would say, it's all within the envelope of what could develop over the next couple of weeks.

    Not a bad perch to be sitting on , in only the second day of meteorological winter eh crewe 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Yes, and after such a crap year, it would be amazing to set up a winter wonderland just in time for Christmas.

    As BA would say, it's all within the envelope of what could develop over the next couple of weeks.

    As long as there are lots of variations of a theme it will have my interest. 😄

    3B1F6E29-0874-42BB-BDB3-5208758B96D7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl

    Keep building that cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Excellent GFS 00Z ...

    UKMO I'm not sure about at all at 144...

    image.thumb.png.4d75e7e96f6e1181161446fbd755c4d8.png

    It looks ok but at t144 it’ll change no doubt. 

    E471990B-D5E7-418D-A965-EB4BC3A87B73.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    6 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Yep charts are more like October in terms of upper air temperatures but no doubt climate change has some influence in this, I doubt you will see such a lack of cold back in the 70s under similar conditions. 

    So cold and at times wet it is with a chance of snow in some lucky spots but very transient in nature. I think the more noteworthy feature will be the wind, quite a nasty low really. Don't think it be much fun on the east coast this weekend. 

    Hmmm, not sure whether its climate change to account for the poor uppers and lack of cold, it is only early December and I remember many like cool rather than cold easterlies in the past, Feb 1972 was an easterly month but apart from the first few days was wet rather than white. In the early days on Internet weather a early December easterly in 2002 brought much excitement on TWO but turned into a damp quib due to poor uppers.

    February 2005 was similar although the colder time of year meant transient snow for many but it was disappointing.

    The problem is the origins of this coming easterlyhad southerlies over Europe, had their been a northerly last week things would be different.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Morning 🙂

    Lovely cold seasonal ECM all the way & beyond past day 10 today > hints of a continental flow at the end 🙂

    Oh &.... 🤔 ECM High Res T54

    55424D0F-04C5-48B1-810C-6CCA54743C87.thumb.jpeg.3c7555ac378b8859ee0c338f0082d320.jpeg2745EA67-2383-4452-9CD8-FB23B5B76224.thumb.jpeg.d077c65f2950d9d0d5ee5e0e6736efcc.jpeg

     

    I was wondering whether the possible snow for Friday had evaporated or not, it'd be nice to see at least falling snow after last years debacle.

    Although it shows something for the south east, these are always 'now cast' situations, so pinches of salt are needed, but it's good to see :-)

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