Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[damianslaw]

Continues to be a rather complex set up, main driving force is the Russian High, which is blocking off the atlantic, and causing the atlantic trough to stall over the UK, rotating around and in on itself, with weak heights to our north. So staying cold and unsettled, with frost and fog in clearer breaks and snow on higher ground.

Whilst the ECM and GFS recent runs show the atlantic breaking through,  it looks to do so with little conviction, I don't see significant energy in it. Heights to the east not expected to go anywhere fast. Second half of December very uncertain can see an equal chance of much stronger blocking building to our NE, conversely we may just end up with more of the same we have now, either way quite a strong chance of it being on the colder side than average, not saying especially cold, but also not discounting the chance, far from it.

[Chesil View]

7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Usain Bolt didn't win 9 gold medals for being slow and steady

Yes but winter is a marathon not an all over in ten seconds sprint

[Kiwi]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Let me tell ya a little secret (((((it’s only the 4th December))))) we have weeks of chasing I’m sure it won’t be long before we’ll be saying.... all aboard the snow train .....keep the faith NWN 

What a great start to Winter ....not expecting anything from the coming days but enjoying the ride immensely!!

And as Dancerwithwings says we need to keep the faith

.....see below ....

 

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

The Russian High can be foe, more often than friend for the UK in Winter. Worst case scenario for UK is if it acts as a block but atlantic systems/fronts decide to set up shop smack bang over the UK. Then there's a danger of cold rain for weeks, on and off, thru Winter.

Seems to be a lot of bemoaning over the Russian high, probably because it is currently providing cold rain rather than snow, but it is an important part of the jigsaw for exerting significant pressure on the PV and preventing the atlantic onslaught that has dominated so many of our winters past. Indeed in many recent winters it has had little influence, low pressure has steamrolled through scandi into Russia. 

Not saying we are in for a 2009/2010 but the synoptics of Nov 2009 remind me somewhat of now, then the trough was held further west and we had very mild weather and rain, the trough came unstuck thanks to heights to our east.

[sebastiaan1973]

The anomaly charts seem promising, but the ENS show not many wintry options.

http://apps.ecmwf.int//webapps/opencharts/favicon.ico ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

[Mucka]

43 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean T240:

There’s the battle zone right there, the UK, as the purple monster seems destined to slither towards it’s preferred dwelling, the battle lines are drawn between the Russian now Scandi high and the Atlantic, but with a trough in Southern Europe still.  let’s see what happens...

I think that mean when compared to the Op also shows the Op was very progressive, possibly due to the phasing of lows 144/168.  especially when you consider a mean represents not just the blocked runs but also the more progressive ones,

Plenty more fight in this Dog yet. Woof!

[Gowon]

13 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Yes but winter is a marathon not an all over in ten seconds sprint

It'd be nice to see some snowfall during the Christmas holidays, so it needs to speed up a bit.

[Eskimo]

Latest ICON brings the system further southward - likely to affect East Anglia, East Midlands, through to the West Midlands and parts of NW England. 



EDIT: Starts off further south but ends up in the same position come Friday Evening. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Eskimo

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Seems to be a lot of bemoaning over the Russian high, probably because it is currently providing cold rain rather than snow, but it is an important part of the jigsaw for exerting significant pressure on the PV and preventing the atlantic onslaught that has dominated so many of our winters past. Indeed in many recent winters it has had little influence, low pressure has steamrolled through scandi into Russia. 

Not saying we are in for a 2009/2010 but the synoptics of Nov 2009 remind me somewhat of now, then the trough was held further west and we had very mild weather and rain, the trough came unstuck thanks to heights to our east.

Not sure what Winter it was; maybe 3 or 4 years ago. It was wet, very wet, and all because fronts basically parked over UK, in part due to big Russian High. 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The Russian HP will have the last laugh over the TPV, when all said and done. My view remains unchanged.

We are not experiencing, nor looking at, deep seated zonality. LP is struggling to get past the UK.

 

broadly agree - it does look as though a continuation of the lw trough axis Newfoundland to w Europe ..... the Russian ridge could well extend its influence further west ...: its a way better picture than we’ve seen for many a December and if the continent continues to cool then no reason why we won’t get lucky from some of the slider scenarios....

[bluearmy]

46 looks ok out to Xmas - low heights to our south survive till around 20th and then it becomes average (perhaps no strong signal)  - all the while the high heights to our ne continue 

as we approach new year the euro heights increase and it becomes meh - 

 

 

[ALL ABOARD]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

46 looks ok out to Xmas - low heights to our south survive till around 20th and then it becomes average (perhaps no strong signal)  - all the while the high heights to our ne continue 

as we approach new year the euro heights increase and it becomes meh - 

 

 

Icon starting to build heights  towards scandi on 18z 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by ALL ABOARD

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Icon starting to build towards scandi on 18z 

 

Almost an Easterly there?

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

46 looks ok out to Xmas - low heights to our south survive till around 20th and then it becomes average (perhaps no strong signal)  - all the while the high heights to our ne continue 

as we approach new year the euro heights increase and it becomes meh - 

 

 

Do you believe it ? 

[MP-R]

Apologies if this has been asked numerous times before, but does anybody know which model/s are taken into consideration in N-W's 10 day weather forecasts? It's going for an ice day here next Wednesday for example, but having scoured the various models I can only see such likelihood on the ICON perhaps.

[ALL ABOARD]

3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Almost an Easterly there?

Yes.. 

Theoretically going forward that low out west in the Atlantic would stall against the block and head towards Greenland allowing the heights in the Atlantic to ridge into scandi to join forces with the Russian high. 

Blocking unite! 

 

[dragan]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Apologies if this has been asked numerous times before, but does anybody know which model/s are taken into consideration in N-W's 10 day weather forecasts? It's going for an ice day here next Wednesday for example, but having scoured the various models I can only see such likelihood on the ICON perhaps.

can you refresh and check it again please 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Do you believe it ? 

It’s interesting that it sustained the low euro heights that long given that the 00z eps suite didn’t 

note geps and gefs also refound the euro low anomolys again on their 12z’s 

I think one of the seven day periods extends those lower heights well into e Europe too 

Edited December 3, 2020 by bluearmy

[NewEra21]

As long as those low heights sit in Europe and that Russian high remains, I wouldn't write anything off just yet. 

Only takes that high to start drifting towards Scandi, and with those low in Europe we're basically in an easterly.

There might be a lack of cold 850s available right now, but if those blocks did fall into place, the cold would eventually follow!

Wishing for a return of the Atlantic for a reset is a very dangerous game, I'd much rather be in the position we're in currently. Than just the Atlantic roaring through from the UK to Russia.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s interesting that it sustained the low euro heights that long given that the 00z eps suite didn’t 

note geps and gefs also refound the euro low anomolys again on their 12z’s 

Thanks mate ...

Dreading the prospect of a +NAO regime taking over next week...

Post Christmas much preferable if it has to happen at all !!

[Singularity]

I’m actually sort of pleased to see a stronger Atlantic push being modelled, because interaction of that with the strong Urals high is a recipe for even stronger wave breaking into the stratosphere to assault a polar vortex that looks to be staggering from a preceding blow, its guard down, open for taking a blow straight to the chin.

Maybe an attempt at something along the lines of Dec 2009 in the works, but delayed by about a month.

Not saying it’s all going to come together, mind. Even if a SSW occurs it has to be aligned in the right way. Ideally we need a wave-2 split which means we want to see wave breaking from N America too. There’s some sign of that but it’s not a strong signal at the moment.

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm the opposite but maybe I'm just easily defeated after years of chasing rainbows.

Let's hope you are right, I really want you to be !!

Don't give up pal. A covering here. 

[Daniel*]

Make no mistake if it was not for that Russian high we would be seeing relentless Atlantic systems and it wouldn’t stop in a hurry, people need to understand it’s very early and time is on our side. 

[danm]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Make no mistake if it was not for that Russian high we would be seeing relentless Atlantic systems and it wouldn’t stop in a hurry, people need to understand it’s very early and time is on our side. 

Completely agree. A Russian high gives us potential, whereas a raging PV and strong zonality can write off a month or more of winter at a time. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

It looks like that high is starting to push West into Scandi on the latest output which could start to affect conditions on the ground at short notice moreso than if it wasn't in situ.

I think things may get interesting next week and that we should be looking East rather than West for what comes next.

You watch the Pub Run will blow the block away now!