Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[dragan]

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECM going for Atlantic push at 192rs while Russian high taking charge of Europe.

Some changes to take place for sure at that range,will the Atlantic win or Russian high

hold back the Atlantic.Very interesting to see who wins the battle.

atlantic 

[northwestsnow]

EC is just awful.

I hope that doesn't verify im sick of rain !!

[kumquat]

Looks like our new love Harmonie is about as reliable as Shannon.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is just awful.

I hope that doesn't verify im sick of rain !!

GFS isn't much different, but to be expected, most of the last 21 winters or so, the Atlantic has dominated!

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECM going for Atlantic push at 192rs while Russian high taking charge of Europe.

Some changes to take place for sure at that range,will the Atlantic win or Russian high

hold back the Atlantic.Very interesting to see who wins the battle.

The Russian HP will have the last laugh over the TPV, when all said and done. My view remains unchanged.

We are not experiencing, nor looking at, deep seated zonality. LP is struggling to get past the UK.

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by CreweCold

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The Russian HP will have the last laugh over the TPV, when all said and done. My view remains unchanged.

 

Same here Crewe. anything past 144 at the moment on the nwp is not worth a jot until they have a proper handle on the expected drop off in zonal windspeeds. The meto extended range has very low confidence and is simply describing climatology because of this. 

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The Russian HP will have the last laugh over the TPV, when all said and done. My view remains unchanged.

We are not experiencing, nor looking at, deep seated zonality. LP is struggling to get past the UK.

 

It goes back to the age old debate on here - would we be better off ridding ourselves of the Russian high pressure and letting the Atlantic come through to ‘reset’ the pattern? IMO the Russian high is the worst winter feature for the U.K., I said on here the other day I don’t remember the last time a high pressure system there actually helped us!

Unfortunately as we’ve seen countless times the Russian heights and stalled Atlantic are normally in situ for quite a while once they get going, stalemate almost.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

Unfortunately as we’ve seen countless times the Russian heights and stalled Atlantic are normally in situ for quite a while once they get going, stalemate almost.

 

That's because the majority of the time, the results are felt a number of weeks later

[Jason M]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The Russian HP will have the last laugh over the TPV, when all said and done. My view remains unchanged.

 

I agree with this. Where we probably differ though is that I think it will just remain dominant through much of this month leading to a situation where the predominant wind direction for NW Europe will be from the south or south east. 

This type of set up in early winter has been common in recent years and it just means that at 850 it will never get very cold. I'm seeing little evidence of genuine HLB. Some of the GEFS flatter to deceive as they show the Russian high ridging towards Scandi. As we know though this cuts off any deep cold in early winter and we end up with cool gloom. 

Over the next few weeks keep an eye on Iberia as I expect we will start to see pressure slowly rise in the part of the world and if it ain't raining over the plain in Spain we can forget anything other than slushy transient snow.

To be clear, I'm not writing winter off (or even Dec) as things could change but looking through the outputs I simply see no route to a substantial cold spell at present.

[iowpompeylee]

Hi all, a long long time lurker, it’s all about trends at the minute. Can’t get to up or down on a run or 2 , things can flip and flip back quickly! Lots of signs of blocking in the near future..... like the classic saying goes get the cold in first! I wish you all a good evening! Lee

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is just awful.

I hope that doesn't verify im sick of rain !!

10 days ago the EC was showing for now

And did it....

NAH!  

 

 

[Snowman.]

Just a reminder of how much worse things could be 

 

Compared to a D10 ECM this evening.

 

Not great in terms of the smaller picture for us but is a damn sight better in terms of the bigger picutre. The 2015 pic is set in stone but that ECM one can still be changed. Chin up gang its not all bad round here.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Snowman.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240:

There’s the battle zone right there, the UK, as the purple monster seems destined to slither towards it’s preferred dwelling, the battle lines are drawn between the Russian now Scandi high and the Atlantic, but with a trough in Southern Europe still.  let’s see what happens...

[mulzy]

The ext EPS keeps us in the game - very blocked pattern with significant heights returning to our north. 
 

Slow and steady wins the race!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

The ext EPS keeps us in the game - very blocked pattern with significant heights returning to our north. 
 

Slow and steady wins the race!

Thats great news mulzy !! I'm beginning to get that sinking feeling so fingers crossed eps are right ....

[joggs]

Well I for one am happy with the way things are going. No organised vortex from top to bottom. Low heights in the med. Jet to the south. Slithery height in high altitudes.  Get the feeling our turn will come. Also good extended musings.

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The ext EPS keeps us in the game - very blocked pattern with significant heights returning to our north. 
 

Slow and steady wins the race!

Thanks for this Mulzy

the EPS clusters are back online...

WHOAH!!!

eps day ten...

WHOAH!!!

blocky!!! blocky!!! catchy monkey!!!

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Really important EC 46 tonight !!!

Edited December 3, 2020 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Well I for one am happy with the way things are going. No organised vortex from top to bottom. Low heights in the med. Jet to the south. Slithery height in high altitudes.  Get the feeling our turn will come. Also good extended musings.

I'm the opposite but maybe I'm just easily defeated after years of chasing rainbows.

Let's hope you are right, I really want you to be !!

[Gowon]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really important EC 56 tonight !!!

You mean the 46?

[Gowon]

21 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The ext EPS keeps us in the game - very blocked pattern with significant heights returning to our north. 
 

Slow and steady wins the race!

Usain Bolt didn't win 9 gold medals for being slow and steady

[stodge]

Evening all

Well, if you like cold rain and the day getting dark at 2.30pm, you'd have loved Thursday December 3rd 2020. A thoroughly bleak day in lowland East London and if you've had some of the white stuff, whether it's settled or not, good on you.

So to the evening models and the journey deeper into December with Christmas Day just three weeks away tomorrow.

12Z GEM - the current LP heads away SE into Europe and the next Atlantic system, a relatively weak feature, starts to slide SE across Ireland and south-western Britain at T+96. By T+150, the LP has moved down into Europe and the British Iles is in a col between pressure systems but the Atlantic looks close at hand and the alignment suggests a return to milder conditions. As might be expected, after a brief struggle, the Atlantic wins out and by T+240 it's a fairly familiar picture of a vigorous LP over Iceland and a ridge across Iberia so perhaps not long-fetch but a milder SW'ly flow as the Eurasian block is pushed back NE. The NH profile doesn't look brilliant either.

12Z GFS OP - well, a disappointing start for cold fans from GEM but let's see if the Americans can come to our aid. The T+96 chart isn't too far removed from GEM though the angle of alignment looks slightly steeper to this observer. By T+168, a more interesting evolution with the next trough also tilting negatively across Ireland and south-west Britain into the continent in the face of what looks a weak but extensive block to the NE. The Atlantic profile is different from GEM with the Azores HP suppressed well to the south.  By T+240, the Atlantic is starting to wind up with a complex and vigorous LP to the south of Iceland so a draw of SW'ly winds but these won't be too mild I would guess. The thing is, the LP spins round in the ocean and then fills and the following weaker system doesn't do much better and starts to slide SE to the west of the British Isles as the focus of heights shifts to Greenland with the main PV still over Siberia. It's a mild and unsettled SSW'ly flow for us though as heights build over the far south-east of Europe.  The NH profile at the end of FI is fascinating with a strong HP over the Pole ridging into Greenland and the PV not looking good with one lobe further to the west over Canada. Once again, hints of warming in the 10 HPA but at the very end of FI.

12Z ECM - the GFS OP evolution is atypical of many recent midwinters though the GEM evolution less so. We've heard talk of an Atlantic return but that such would not last long and GFS seems to confirm that. What then of ECM? Differences start at T+96 with a very different profile. The LP is more concentrated to the SW rather than an elongated trough as the other models suggest.  However, any hope for a continuation of the chilly conditions soon get swept away and by T+192 milder Atlantic air has pushed back in with the trough aligned positively over Iceland and a long-fetch SW'ly though we're not looking at a traditional zonal scenario by any means. It does seem the PV is back over Greenland with a vengeance. The T+240 NH chart doesn't look inspiring. As we see with the GFS, it may be a brief Atlantic period will be the gateway to another period of amplification.

12Z GFS Control is also less than stellar into FI though again I've seen worse over the years. It all seems a million miles away from the GFS 00Z Parallel which certainly was much better on the eye. 12Z ECM COntrol ends quite interesting as well.

Conclusion - after the current chilly and wet spell, it looks as though the Atlantic will return by mid-month in some form but the duration of this next Atlantic spell is far from clear. With the PV perhaps not as dominant as recent years, it may be it will be a pause before the next amplification. We'll see.

 

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The Russian HP will have the last laugh over the TPV, when all said and done. My view remains unchanged.

We are not experiencing, nor looking at, deep seated zonality. LP is struggling to get past the UK.

 

The Russian High can be foe, more often than friend for the UK in Winter. Worst case scenario for UK is if it acts as a block but atlantic systems/fronts decide to set up shop smack bang over the UK. Then there's a danger of cold rain for weeks, on and off, thru Winter.

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm the opposite but maybe I'm just easily defeated after years of chasing rainbows.

Let's hope you are right, I really want you to be !!

Yes NWS i am with you on that one but something feels different to me about this winter

that Scurasian block(i maybe wrong) will not allow that atlantic in past the UK and i think that these lows/troughs out west will slide under the block

meanwhile,wet snow is falling here

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Dancerwithwings]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm the opposite but maybe I'm just easily defeated after years of chasing rainbows.

Let's hope you are right, I really want you to be !!

Let me tell ya a little secret (((((it’s only the 4th December))))) we have weeks of chasing I’m sure it won’t be long before we’ll be saying.... all aboard the snow train .....keep the faith NWS

Edited December 3, 2020 by Dancerwithwings