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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


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Posted
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
    24 minutes ago, danm said:

    2010. 

    The only other time since where we had great potential in the models in early/mid December was in 2012, which all ended in tears....

    I'm sure there was a year semi-recently that we had snow in October.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.88c7b9a3f5125442a62d3df73bd22912.png

    The Warmth is pushing back in from the gulf stream.image.thumb.png.2abbf90ce3b3dcbdd622d1f610a51c6d.png

    Before that though a hint of what could have been possible without the Jet Stream but Hot always Wins Over Cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    A significant shift south from the latest ICON which would suggest a more westward shift. Minimal snow/precips on it but as demonstrated earlier with the radar...ICON underplays precip amounts and intensity. 

    image.thumb.png.6a08467f96c4347ef4e077aa9f271a52.pngimage.thumb.png.c1c3d73901d9dcf4a47341c925316b68.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

     Has Nick not seen the rainfall totals on GFS for his area? 

    accprecip_20201203_12_144.jpg

    Luckily I live on a hill so will avoid any flooding ! 

    There should be lots of snow in the mountains but sadly the ski resorts aren’t likely to open until mid January . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ec = icon 

    further east than before and light 

    not the ec op’s finest hour on the short term as it ends up pretty much where the other ops have been for days 

    Harmonie. Please save us. 😭

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ec = icon 

    further east than before and light 

    not the ec op’s finest hour on the short term as it ends up pretty much where the other ops have been for days 

    Like playing a striker in goal.. play to your strengths ecm is broad scale and leave the short term finer details to the models that are designed for jus that...but! Of course when it was showing 28cm yesterday it would have just been so very rude to not give it airing....

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
    14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ec = icon 

    further east than before and light 

    not the ec op’s finest hour on the short term as it ends up pretty much where the other ops have been for days 

    Indeed, a big climbdown from it, and looking at it's 18z vs the current radar returns, it looks pretty accurate (ironically) with it's current track.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Dunno if this will be enough straws to clutch at regarding the Harmonie tomorrow 

    1ECF4377-9EB3-4A00-BC17-0DBA90728F9C.thumb.jpeg.e50c450c5a429c48782e90c8d7671607.jpeg

    In seriousness though, is just seeing what happens on the day itself. Would personally say anyway, especially for Southern areas, any wintry weather before Christmas does tend to be a bonus.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T144 ECM.  Meto are “confidence is very low” from the 17th. They need to give some in here a call cause they’re confident it’s going to be.........🤣🤣🤣

    772E6125-93D5-4569-9940-B7B32DC8BA47.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Northern areas in firing line

     

    Screenshot_20201203_182246_com.android.chrome.jpg

     

     

     

    Screenshot_20201203_182325_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Duplicate images removed.
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T168:

    E365C3A2-2FC4-4F05-9693-6910F93662BF.thumb.png.c49db881e896b04a4558b1060c2a8809.png

    It will be interesting to see if that mess out NW of us gets together into a coherent low as it did on the GEM in the end, or whether it continues to disrupt and slides as the high pressure edges towards Scandi.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    If the two lows in the Atlantic at 144 didn't phase I think we would be looking at a very nice chart at 168.

    Better than GFS 12z that manages to keep them separate so something to watch for in the mid term maybe.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Too progressive at the minute but wouldn't be surprised to see this modeled further west as we move to a more reliable time frame.

    ECH1-192.thumb.png.0b7b09a9cd913c151d30581957ecc66b.pngECH1-216.thumb.png.b30ef62d8975df0d8035db5663abe53c.png

    Nice little cold pool developing there too.

    ECH0-192.thumb.png.b9a198e76ca9a873a63fb7aee9992f17.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T240, yes vile for UK at the moment:

    9A120818-ACC5-411F-8662-E01176150C4E.thumb.png.a0f55305cb3b0060f72926bbe9006110.png

    As the winds are from the south, but notice that the depressions just can’t get past the UK as normal?  Would only require a bit more westward movement of the block before they start to go under, and then we would be in business.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Hot off the press, the UKV 15z (the model runs 8 times a day).

    Still a snow risk in the SE and East Anglia overnight and tomorrow morning, but the model not showing too much settling, beyond transient coverings over the hills (inc Kent in the couple of hours before this image). The hotspot tomorrow morning looks Southern Scotland, and (not surprisingly!) the Highlands. 

    ukv-snow-depth.png

    Here's an anim of how it's currently forecasting everything to play out. 

    ukv-anim.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T240, yes vile for UK at the moment:

    9A120818-ACC5-411F-8662-E01176150C4E.thumb.png.a0f55305cb3b0060f72926bbe9006110.png

    As the winds are from the south, but notice that the depressions just can’t get past the UK as normal?  Would only require a bit more westward movement of the block before they start to go under, and then we would be in business.  

    or eastward to make it even worse, that’s if it’s cold you want, it seems a few people in this darn tootin forum like cold..?

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM going for Atlantic push at 192rs while Russian high taking charge of Europe.

    Some changes to take place for sure at that range,will the Atlantic win or Russian high

    hold back the Atlantic.Very interesting to see who wins the battle.

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