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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    5 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    This looks like a bust for the Midlands looking at the latest charts from a imby perspective. But hope you guys in the South get some it looks very marginal. Great to be bk for a new Season of hopes and dreams as we all board the Winter roller coaster of hope and despair. I just hope this winter the cards finally fall in our favour and the whole country sees some snow. Wild ride ahead good luck evreone. ☃️☃️

    You seriously are not going to miss much at all, very transient snowfall(probably nothing much better than very wet snow) before the winds pick up and the air mixed out significantly. 

    Anyways the models continue with the cool and at times wet theme. Very hard to pin down details but a frost is always possible in any clearer skies. Very unreliable to know where mind, all depends on cloud cover.

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    For once a tendency to under amplify the pattern. I wonder how much of our current "surprise" (I'll admit to being a bit surprised at the winter positives of the current phase) is down to poor modelli

    Some folk need to understand that this thread is to discuss the model outputs that be 6hr out or 2 weeks. Also if folk are looking for there 1st snowflake of the season using said models that's absolu

    Secretly admit, that snowy ECMWF chart for Friday for the Midlands and South-East looked Winter-ful and has got me a little excited. 🙈 Even though it could quite easily not happen. Must remember now y

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z HARMONIE has just come out, and it's quite similar to its 06z run:

    harmonieeur40-1-21-3.thumb.png.3f633c033d68466ee82d4b533741ffda.png   harmonieeur40-26-26-3.thumb.png.f108ead2ae7f858cf346128f964e1077.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    HARMONIE 12z is still offering some falling snow for a reasonable amount of the country:

    anim_buc9.gif 

    Note that the orange hashing, which is quite prevalent, is sleet, so that won’t accumulate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yes look at the PPN radar V the ICON model - the ICON is poor The circulation is much better defined & further NW

    76CCCD0E-3499-4476-9740-FE1EF46E64E8.thumb.png.18880922f3558c4a7d797b50d0289c38.pngF5B679FF-F70C-43AA-A78A-2E27F7C0A712.thumb.png.2824f135e545a465dac0768bb259c424.png

     

    I mean, look at the Arpege. Barely even exists as a feature on the 4pm chart against the 4pm radar grab. 

    image.thumb.png.0b00f4c235c480fb5a76f39ed8c22d14.pngimage.thumb.png.6ba07d32e7cc6f1b1a58cd1e3f8877ba.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    The classic battleground set up remains in the medium term despite fluctuations East and West.

    gfsnh-1-162.png?12

    The questions remain how far Weast will the PPN get and how much cold air will be over us at the time

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Harmonie not budging and gives my part of the midlands a wholopping!!

    Look at the noticable accuracy of the HIRLAM ( people can check back it was always my favourite > I didnt know it had changed )

    5BC2D6F3-C77E-4654-AF88-8F66F5929388.thumb.png.799d38c96350a8037c63a555f0326e28.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    The classic battleground set up remains in the medium term despite fluctuations East and West.

    gfsnh-1-162.png?12

    The questions remain how far Weast will the PPN get and how much cold air will be over us at the time

    The GFS develops more of a cold pool than in recent days but too far out to have much confidence in .

    Could though be an interesting few days if Atlantic low pressure continues to struggle to make much eastwards progress.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    Look at the noticable accuracy of the HIRLAM ( people can check back it was always my favourite > I didnt know it had changed )

    5BC2D6F3-C77E-4654-AF88-8F66F5929388.thumb.png.799d38c96350a8037c63a555f0326e28.png

    Quite, and this one is twice the resolution (5km compared to 10km for HIRLAM).

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Being in Bournemouth I’m having to hunt further a field.😩😩😩

    3C61213D-54F8-4A28-A5C5-710125B75EEB.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Look at the noticable accuracy of the HIRLAM ( people can check back it was always my favourite > I didnt know it had changed )

    5BC2D6F3-C77E-4654-AF88-8F66F5929388.thumb.png.799d38c96350a8037c63a555f0326e28.png

    Current radar defo has things further north and west!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Being in Bournemouth I’m having to hunt further a field.😩😩😩

    3C61213D-54F8-4A28-A5C5-710125B75EEB.png

    What an interesting chart.. and in my view illustrates well some trends today.. vortex creeping back towards its normal abode.. but maybe just maybe that Russian high has started a move west wards towards Iceland.. lows still on the north west south east into Europe track.
     

    Intriguing 🤨 

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Re Harmonie we will know his time tomorrow if she is a snow tease or not ...

    Longer term this looks more promising again... 

    315010C9-EEE8-4055-9851-EB78FA763396.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Being in Bournemouth I’m having to hunt further a field.😩😩😩

    3C61213D-54F8-4A28-A5C5-710125B75EEB.png

    Atlantic systems really struggling to breach the meridian aren't they?  Signs that Scandi high is strengthening and pushing West in the medium term?

    Also signs of the PV relocating to Greenland on this run could equal sliders.  We just need pressure to drop further SE to allow more of an Easterly fetch and cold to leak into Europe.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    34 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    The classic battleground set up remains in the medium term despite fluctuations East and West.

    gfsnh-1-162.png?12

    The questions remain how far Weast will the PPN get and how much cold air will be over us at the time

    Can we get a Beast  from the Weast Mucka ❄️

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Am I the only one who, personally, things this is being ramped up a bit too much? The most I am expecting is a bit of wet snow at best. certainly not expecting anything to settle. 
     

    If it was 0 degrees or so, then yes, I’d be more excited. But it looks like it’ll just be a wet, cold end to the day. 

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The GFS develops more of a cold pool than in recent days but too far out to have much confidence in .

    Could though be an interesting few days if Atlantic low pressure continues to struggle to make much eastwards progress.

    If by 'interesting' you mean cold and wet, okay.

    There's nothing particularly exciting or special in the current synoptics despite the attempts to make them seem so. Weather is coming in off the Atlantic, albeit not belting in just yet, we're on the north of the PFJ so it's going to feel cold and that's about it. Great for the Scottish ski resorts and if you stand on top of Cross Fell you should see the occasional snow but there's unlikely to be snow at low levels for most of England. There's almost no point at which England is under -5C 850 hPa and that's pretty crucial if you want to see snow falling, as I do.

    Meanwhile it's going to blow a hoolie down the west coast tomorrow night.

     

    Edited by West is Best
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Harmonie has a more west track than icon and gfs but the snow is way less clear than yesterday with mainly sleet/rain until it reaches the midlands 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    4 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    Am I the only one who, personally, things this is being ramped up a bit too much? The most I am expecting is a bit of wet snow at best. certainly not expecting anything to settle. 
     

    If it was 0 degrees or so, then yes, I’d be more excited. But it looks like it’ll just be a wet, cold end to the day. 

    When was the last time we had a snow risk in early December? Especially in this sort of set up - yes, it’s a shame there isn’t true cold around to make it easier to see where it’ll snow and what will just be a wintry mix or rain. 
     

    it’s still exciting to see what the models say but everyone knows, this will be a nowcast situation regardless.

    also, it’s more long term that is gaining potential excitement too.

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    5 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    Am I the only one who, personally, things this is being ramped up a bit too much? 

    No you're not and yes it is. Ludicrously so. I blame it on Covid, so it's understandable but in the end it's causing more pain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    Am I the only one who, personally, things this is being ramped up a bit too much? The most I am expecting is a bit of wet snow at best. certainly not expecting anything to settle. 
     

    If it was 0 degrees or so, then yes, I’d be more excited. But it looks like it’ll just be a wet, cold end to the day. 

    nope - been wet and cold here in Wales today too and that's with 240m elevation on my side - even at 300m - 350m around these parts it's been mostly wet with the odd flake thrown in at around 350m - too marginal i think on this occasion - but good luck to you all still hoping! - GFS 12z looking to build more blocking cold with slider lows going under - once again though the cold needs to have more bite!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Re Harmonie we will know his time tomorrow if she is a snow tease or not ...

    Longer term this looks more promising again... 

    315010C9-EEE8-4055-9851-EB78FA763396.png

    I know it's way out in FI but yet again the GFS ends on a very good note, heights building over Greenland. I think I've seen about 4 now this week from the GFS when I've managed to catch them. Date seems to be around 16th to 18th December.

    gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.3cface2bb10c8173ac4ba5580b05f42b.png

     

    Edited by Day 10
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    The suggestion of ridging towards Greenland is back in the GFS extended. At least that’s one very small crumb of comfort for now.

    F7BD4C23-CC07-4715-BA7B-CB497490D261.png

    6CA9EB4F-7D41-472B-B65B-605104E64E1E.png

    Edited by Frosty Winter
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