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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    44 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    A 'classic' situation developing here: one that, way back 'when ar were a lud', would've had me wetting myself with excitement...These days? I'm not so sure!🥱

    h500slp.png    

    15 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Not to jump on the cold rain bandwagon, but all this "Atlantic stalling" is great, but it is not stalling against particularly cold air. 

     

    All I can see is cool and wet. I think I would rather a pattern reset than this for weeks on end, seemingly going no where.

    This for weeks on end, wouldn't go no where, we'd get progressively cooler over time. We are only three days into winter, I call it a good start for a change.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    Yes bit of a mehhhh pattern after all the excitement this morning. 

    Hopefully we can see a flip back this afternoon. 

    What' strikes me is the inability of the atmosphere to promote high latitude blocking over the last couple of years. Even when it looks like the only possible way, it is scuppered. 

    Normally it's a shortwave calamity but this time it's a combination of shortwaves and that Huge Russian high causing a back up of Atlantic lows that then have no option to meander about and find ways of merging. 

    The chase for an illusive Greenland high is now in its tenth year. 

    Edited by ALL ABOARD
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    26 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    And the 06Z finds a channel-runner... another classic (almost guaranteed) snowmaker, in the days of yore? I know this isn't the place for discussing the ramifications of climate change, so I apologise; but, some things are simply too hard to ignore... And, I do hope I'm wrong!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

     

    How do you know it won’t be snow if we get there? 🧐

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    It is definitely nice to see some wintery conditions out and about, higher ground anywhere in the U.K. looking more favourable due to the lack of any real continental cold - nice to see some positive news from the METO ref a more prolonged colder outlook, and let’s hope the charts flip to Show some more northern blocking so some proper cold heads to the U.K.  - the NAO and AO are pointing that way.

    2835B813-5A76-4265-A770-E2F3F4ADA27F.png

    Yes subsequently the majority of the GFS ensembles go for a scandi block by 192. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    Yes subsequently the majority of the GFS ensembles go for a scandi block by 192. 

    Jeeze... and there I was about to take a couple of days out... now I’m drawn in again for the 12z :)

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    6z basically delays the Atlantic, but its coming ...

    Time for steady heads. No sign of any real Atlantic onslaught up to T+240 (ala 2019). And with the apparent forecast of a weakening SPV, for me there’s everything still to play for. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

     

    Yes, the infamous long game.

    The problem is, by the time the cold air is getting any nearer, we would likely have a raging vortex!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Time for steady heads. No sign of any real Atlantic onslaught up to T+240 (ala 2019). And with the apparent forecast of a weakening SPV, for me there’s everything still to play for. 

    Quite so Paul. Steady as she goes for and interesting middle third of December

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    Here's the mean of the GFS 6z at 192. 

     

    gensnh-31-1-192.thumb.png.038f6ce484f91f26e977a842ffb4a33c.png

     

    Can see the Russian high beginning to flex towards scandi  

    Low pressure on a southerly tracking jet 

    And we maintain low anomalies across Europe. 

     

    Scandi high with sliders anyone? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    Here's the mean of the GFS 6z at 192. 

     

    gensnh-31-1-192.thumb.png.038f6ce484f91f26e977a842ffb4a33c.png

     

    Can see the Russian high beginning to flex towards scandi  

    Low pressure on a southerly tracking jet 

    And we maintain low anomalies across Europe. 

     

    Scandi high with sliders anyone? 

    Despite this is not an Atlantic onslaught by any means where are we going to get the trigger low that would bring any meaningful uppers? Even in past undercut scenarios the diving low pressure had to eventually interact with one to the east or northeast. There in non available anywhere within few 1000kms. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    7 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    Despite this is not an Atlantic onslaught by any means where are we going to get the trigger low that would bring any meaningful uppers? Even in past undercut scenarios the diving low pressure had to eventually interact with one to the east or northeast. There in non available anywhere within few 1000kms. 

    Yes given this chart at face value it wouldn't be viable. 

    Just going forward hopefully the Russian high becomes cut off and we then see the wrap around required. 

    Could take a few days (weeks with how far the cold is north) 

    Or fingers crossed it moves to scandi then onwards to griceland and we get an Atlantic low skirting over the top and dropping down towards scandi introducing the cold air. 

    All very hypothetical, but nice to see the Atlantic continue to be disrupted. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    6z Euro4 takes a slight step Westwards, but not by a huge amount (0z v 6z below):

    image.thumb.png.a6546a7856a5148d5f104eddd91053f9.pngimage.thumb.png.8e4f69b65254ee1baed98bde9ff5370c.png

    Still has a rather keen snow signal in there too, but from experience the Euro4 tends to overdo the snow extent in these scenarios:

    image.thumb.png.8fca8acd796e97e9e0da40a9f04a0080.png

    Which when you combine with the forecast Dew Points at that timeframe looks even more suspicious:

    image.thumb.png.a9702ee083b94c01b4902e6eb914fc1b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    And the 06Z finds a channel-runner... another classic (almost guaranteed) snowmaker, in the days of yore? I know this isn't the place for discussing the ramifications of climate change, so I apologise; but, some things are simply too hard to ignore... And, I do hope I'm wrong!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

     

    Too me in the last 10 years especially, we are seeing more and more yellow(thicknesses) up on the top right of the charts during winter. This means two things, it means an area of high pressure there and secondly the jet stream deflected towards the Arctic hence sea ice struggling to develop in the Barants and Kara seas which of course means even more warming. 

    The warmth being pumped up into Scandinavia is impressive for December but probably damaging for some of the snow cover there. 

    And of course more warmth pumped into an area of high pressure will strengthen it so it just does not move and that's why the weather pattern for us will have the same old low pressure over us not going anywhere and the air temperature not really changing. 

    Never fully understood the excitement regarding the output, unless the northerlies actually arrived into the UK then it was always going to be a stalemate and a big missed opportunity which is turning out to be as indications in the longer term seems to suggest an flatter pattern is on the way although it could always change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Just throwing this into the mix for when we’re all viewing the model output later today and over the weekend:

    https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1334454203494838273?s=21

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    22 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

     

    653033791_EDH101-240ano.thumb.gif.972b265456bfbdb1f6a005946c405954.gif

     

     

    If you looked at this chart at face value and the fact it's close to the shortest day of the year, you would think that we would having a bitter cold spell.

    It all seems a waste to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
    55 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    If you looked at this chart at face value and the fact it's close to the shortest day of the year, you would think that we would having a bitter cold spell.

    It all seems a waste to me.

    Largely typical of our luck for the last 10 years. We're always 1 ingredient short and always 10 days away.

    Edited by Spikey M
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    6 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

    Largely typical of our luck for the last 10 years. We're always 1 ingredient short and always 10 days.

    Plus the October Fog Index says no😪

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    55 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    If you looked at this chart at face value and the fact it's close to the shortest day of the year, you would think that we would having a bitter cold spell.

    It all seems a waste to me.

    I have deja vu over this but it may not have been in December ....

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