Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, WxHerts said:

Let the battle commenceimage.thumb.png.5d306c788744d1e49b7750d9d52f51eb.png

But its going further and further east!!danger signs are there mate!!!looks good but any further east and that will be that!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is indeed improved but still a complete lack of ridging in the Atlantic.

How has it improved ? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC cluster 1 and 4 bring a block to the NE next week...

Assume that’s from Matt’s tweet - ec clusters aren’t working again on their website !!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

A 'classic' situation developing here: one that, way back 'when ar were a lud', would've had me wetting myself with excitement...These days? I'm not so sure!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

ecm 0z still a limpet low mess with a shortwave (who would have thought in the North Sea) developing out of the blue so rain chilly rain hot sausage and mustard! (a bit of seasonal Oliver for you :))...in a year of strangeness and uncertainty nothing has changed good ol' Western Russian High (every run going absolutely nowhere).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Up until D8 the jet keeps the UK just on the cold side with the Atlantic train notably to the south:

anim_qkc3.gifanim_obt0.gif

Average to slightly below but no cold source, just that cold pool that is insufficient to be of use for snow. Lift the jet north and it would be called zonal after D6 though satellite lows rather than chunks from the tPV sitting over Greenland. Flat upstream so little chance of any change with that status quo.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxHerts Enthusiast

WxHerts

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

But its going further and further east!!danger signs are there mate!!!looks good but any further east and that will be that!

Actually seems 6z runs are trying to reverse that trend (Arome pictured 0z v 6z further west), will soon be turning to the radar (where ppn currently looks a tad more beefy than modelled)..

11E6E6B2-EB2A-4417-83BC-4910C32388E7.png

7FC9C816-640F-424E-B53D-0AC3CA7465C5.png

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is indeed improved but still a complete lack of ridging in the Atlantic.

I can’t see why there would be any Atlantic ridging now beyond the day 5/7 transient fella .... this shouldn’t be a surprise - no noaa cpc chart has showed an upper ridge of any kind beyond the latter part of next week - but we could still see retrograde of the scrussian heights towards griceland above the trough - but again, would that be sustainable ?? I think that depends on activity in the Arctic with a possible ridge forced across from the alaskan side 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxHerts said:

Actually seems 6z runs are trying to reverse that trend (Arome pictured 0z v 6z further west), will soon be turning to the radar (where ppn currently looks a tad more beefy than modelled)..

11E6E6B2-EB2A-4417-83BC-4910C32388E7.png

7FC9C816-640F-424E-B53D-0AC3CA7465C5.png

The Arome is sig  west   its just all very marginal though     however a few  flakes from the sky would be great

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted

HARMONIE 6z in full, with a reasonable part of the country seeing some flakes tomorrow:

anim_ehx9.gif 

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A 'classic' situation developing here: one that, way back 'when ar were a lud', would've had me wetting myself with excitement...These days? I'm not so sure!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Strikes me as 2 main features to sum up the synoptics in the next week 1. Western Russian High (static) and 2. Limpet low pressures hanging about the UK in chilly air. As you pointed out due to the less cold continent in years gone by this would have been more eyewatering...I'm waiting for a cold spell where we actually experience a cold air mass from the north or east not under low pressure! (i.e. Oct/Nov 2019, beginning of Oct 2020) seems a rarity now days!

It's cold but not as we (use) to know it...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

HARMONIE 6z in full, with a reasonable part of the country seeing some flakes tomorrow:

anim_ehx9.gif 

Arome  not to dissimilar  just slightly more north

image.thumb.png.3dd14f6312a4c543121f768d2cd68982.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z basically delays the Atlantic, but its coming ...

Can only hope as a coldie that we maintain a southerly tracking jet and the stagnant air above can become colder over the days with lows becoming elongated and bumping into colder air as time goes on.

Makes you laugh though how it switches so quick after some cracking charts yesterday. Maybe switch again in the coming days.

Edited by joggs
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

Going in to middle of December it is a terrible view for Europe to see. Enjoy snow over next couple of days as it may be the last seen for a long time anywhere below 800m asl. Look how far away are uppers below -6 from Europe. I did praise the presence of Ural blocking in October but now it is turning out to be the evil. Even if it does weaken the zonal winds higher up there is no guarantee any stratospheric warming will effect our continent any time soon. With the southerly tracking jet stream all it does is to stop low pressure areas around Italy then it stalls because of the block to the east, meanwhile a massive advection of warmth from south just keeps regenerating.  By now I would rather have zonal north westerlies then this. 

gensnh-31-0-162.png

gensnh-31-1-162.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z basically delays the Atlantic, but its coming ...

Again though, it's not full on zonal, with the lows basically stalling near us.

That pesky Russian high is stalling the Atlantic but it's not sufficiently near to be of influence cold wise.

The ski resorts will do well, not that anyone can ski anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted

Well I can’t remember that on Dec 3rd we would be under heavy snow in current set up in days gone past .  If it were New Year or late late December I’d agree....but it’s day 3 of meteorological winter....

 

models show a theme of disrupting or southerly tracking LPs ahead so I’m liking this, it’s below average and seasonal as many say.  I think the Atlantic will be playing it’s part ahead....but hopefully it’ll remain away from a SW’ly regime

 

BFTP

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And the 06Z finds a channel-runner... another classic (almost guaranteed) snowmaker, in the days of yore? I know this isn't the place for discussing the ramifications of climate change, so I apologise; but, some things are simply too hard to ignore... And, I do hope I'm wrong!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well I can’t remember that on Dec 3rd we would be under heavy snow in current set up in days gone past .  If it were New Year or late late December I’d agree....but it’s day 3 of meteorological winter....

 

models show a theme of disrupting or southerly tracking LPs ahead so I’m liking this, it’s below average and seasonal as many say.  I think the Atlantic will be playing it’s part ahead....but hopefully it’ll remain away from a SW’ly regime

 

BFTP

Not to jump on the cold rain bandwagon, but all this "Atlantic stalling" is great, but it is not stalling against particularly cold air. 

 

All I can see is cool and wet. I think I would rather a pattern reset than this for weeks on end, seemingly going no where.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

A bit more of a standing Pacific wave rather than a rolling wave (high) on the 06z compared to the 0z, around post-d12. By then we have lost the Atlantic block so it is really starting again and with a strong westerly flow and the tPV meandering back to Greenland, it may be too little too late?

anim_wgl9.gif

We still have the same issue viz downstream Russian blocking high. Any Atlantic forcing squeezes the UK trough and restricts cold air from anywhere other than brief spurts from the NW. Based on this run, low-expectations for anything wintry for 16+ days. This pattern seems to be entrenched (macro) and only needs some variables to work in our favour to get more interesting on a micro-scale though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And the 06Z finds a channel-runner... another classic (almost guaranteed) snowmaker, in the days of yore? I know this isn't the place for discussing the ramifications of climate change, so I apologise; but, some things are simply too hard to ignore... And, I do hope I'm wrong!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

I am not sure we can lay this at the feet of Climate change - yes it is not helping, but the problem is that fat Russian high. 

It is just hanging around, flooding Europe with warm air.

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I am not sure we can lay this at the feet of Climate change - yes it is not helping, but the problem is that fat Russian high. 

It is just hanging around, flooding Europe with warm air.

 

Which could, of itself, be a product of Climate Change? Maybe yes, maybe no...Who knows?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...