Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Jokes aside Euro4 is the top high res model for me. Rarely far out when it comes down to 36hrs or less. BBC TV forecast graphics are usually a direct lift from this model. Looks sensible for Fri...

I like that model too. I have some of the pink stuff over me

[Eskimo]

Not sure what model feeds this data (UKV?) but this is what the MetOffice are going for. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Eskimo

[damianslaw]

23 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

18z extended goes for a Scandi high, but by the looks of it any cold air would take about 8 working days to get to us, if at all.

8 working days would take us to Christmas Eve unless not including weekends! 

[Mapantz]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

BBC TV forecast graphics are usually a direct lift from this model.

The BBC don't use the MetOffice for their data, so I highly doubt it?

[BlueHedgehog074]

18 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

Clearly in a tier 1 area

Didn’t think to make it more Covid secure

19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That block to our E/NE is determining the weather ATM and it will provide so many outcomes/scenarios across the NWP'S for a good while yet with a holding pattern,whether troughs disrupt SE under the block is one scenario or will the lows ride over the top(alternative scenario)? 

the UK hangs on a balance regarding this

we are at the mercy that if the heights are not strong enough or north enough to disrupt the lows/troughs SE enough then the high will sink SE

it is a give or take at the moment and i couldn't tell you what is going to happen ATM.

Sounds like a fair summary. It feels all finely balanced at the moment. Like a battle between the Lows and the Northern-Eastern UK blocking highs. Suppose we got to watch out that the Azores High and Greenland Vortex don’t team up together and cause trouble by bringing in mild and unsettled South-Westerly winds (although I appreciate some enjoy that type of weather. And even in colder Winters, it’s hard to go through the whole season without a few milder, Atlantic, interludes at times). Having said that, apart from maybe some runs in deep FI on the GFS, there doesn’t seem like many signs of the Vortex going back to its Greenland house at the moment.
 

 

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The BBC don't use the MetOffice for their data, so I highly doubt it?

BBC definitely do use EURO4, the reason half their graphics have that horrible cutoff line is because it's a direct EURO4 feed.

[Mucka]

 

Starting with Icon 00z, not unlike last nights ECM in FI with disrupting Atlantic low against continental flow (Don't read much into 850's at that range)

Actually I think it is a little better than ECM was with pattern slightly further West and just a tiny hint of future retrogression.

 

GFS 00z mainly cool and wet out to 144, UKMO not too dissimilar at the same timeframe. block to the East, Atlantic attempting to encroach. 

less disruption with winds turning W. Not a good run for snow fans I'm afraid.

 

To end on a more positive note at least Harmonie still shows snow for much of England tomorrow, a shame it is only digital snow

Edited December 3, 2020 by Mucka

[dragan]

fortunately although i am no where near as experienced as others, i used my common sense and didn’t buy into the cool spell lasting.

According to the last few gfs runs we are certainly heading back into milder or to be more accurate ‘average’ territory in terms of temperature. 

No hint of anything colder as of yet.

[Weather-history]

GFS 0z run from 240 hours ago for today

Current chart

ECM 0z op run from 240hrs ago

[KTtom]

The cool (average or just below) pattern looks likely to stay for another week or so, as others have said, its just a shame we have southerly tracking lows like this but that pesky high is like a brick wall to getting cold into europe, as a result temperatures here are the wrong side of what we need for lowland snow. Longer term, a backwards step post day 10 last night and today but of course that could all change...

 

[Faronstream]

GFS always throw out options like this ones in long range so no need to take it seriously, also weaker than average PV makes it climatologically impossible for strong lows to form like this nights GFS 0z run

[West is Best]

Re what has happened this time, I think it's always worth keeping an eye on the ensembles. The 0z is a case in point. You can see that nowhere over the next week does the operational touch -5C 850hPa, which is really mandatory for snow at low levels in England. But the other point of interest is if you follow the mean. It's clearly a gradually rising temperature profile.

That doesn't mean this is set in stone: they could all be wrong because they're only as good as the input data. However, betting against the ensemble trend is a hazardous occupation 

Edited December 3, 2020 by West is Best

[dragan]

8 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

GFS always throw out options like this ones in long range so no need to take it seriously, also weaker than average PV makes it climatologically impossible for strong lows to form like this nights GFS 0z run

it throws out options like this because 85% of our weather is what’s it’s suggesting....so it’s has to be taken seriously, and it’s probably right, i’m almost certain in 14 days time if i stick my head out the window, we will have some sort of westerly airflow.....again, because that’s what usually happens 

 

[Faronstream]

1 minute ago, dragan said:

it throws out options like this because 85% of our weather is what’s it’s suggesting....so it’s has to be taken seriously, and it’s probably right, i’m almost certain in 14 days time if i stick my head out the window, we will have some sort of westerly airflow.....again, because that’s what usually happens 

 

Yes it's true beacause we usually have a mild to strong PV but right now it's getting weaker and will probably stay that way for some 3-4 weeks so that's why i think it looks weird, the PV fires up the lows on the atlantic not the opposite

[IDO]

The trend for the GFS op is now less inclined to upstream wave amplification, more oscillation of any Pacific high, so no help to maintain the blocked pattern over the UK region:

It was a transient event, the Atlantic wave, and we did need help to keep that profile. Back to square one, Pacific, Azores and Russian high, and this usually enables the tPV to regroup^^^. Suggestions that the MJO is active but background rather than foreground, that was the case last year, so we may not guarantee wave action from that regard?

The op does appear to be driving the trend since yesterday so the mean is flattening the NH profile:

d12 mean: 

We await the next wave train to get another interesting period; our staple winter diet is 2-3 chances and the first one seems bad timing as that Russian high is a winter killer.

[northwestsnow]

Not liking the trends this morning..

The troughing across Europe continues to help coldies but it all looks to flat to the west...

Hopefully with zonal winds expected to relent we may see a quiter Atlantic at some point, really don't want things turning stormy !!

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not liking the trends this morning..

The troughing across Europe continues to help coldies but it all looks to flat to the west...

Hopefully with zonal winds expected to relent we may see a quiter Atlantic at some point, really don't want things turning stormy !!

Was just going to say the same. Bit of a sinking feeling this morning with a succession of lows swinging across the Atlantic towards mid December.

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not liking the trends this morning..

The troughing across Europe continues to help coldies but it all looks to flat to the west...

Hopefully with zonal winds expected to relent we may see a quiter Atlantic at some point, really don't want things turning stormy !!

I wouldn't say it looks flat, there is no raging PV over Greenland for example.

It's all just a bit boring to be honest. Not horrendous synoptically but no real cold or warmth.

[Kiwi]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not liking the trends this morning..

The troughing across Europe continues to help coldies but it all looks to flat to the west...

Hopefully with zonal winds expected to relent we may see a quiter Atlantic at some point, really don't want things turning stormy !!

Fortunately, as we know, models can swiftly change. I'm optimistic - blocking is on the cards.

 

[NeilN]

Yes the models seem to be a bit dull and lifeless, but isnt it too early in the game?

I'm sure many a good winter have started like this and have built upon it. As long as it stays dry and is cool is what matters. 

[winterof79]

Getting close to accurate

Edited December 3, 2020 by winterof79

[Tim Bland]

7 hours ago, Mapantz said:

The BBC don't use the MetOffice for their data, so I highly doubt it?

Meteogroup - Who run the forecasts, will pay the Met office for all their models / data, just like any other private meteorological company.

still a few 100 miles to be resolved re the precip in the morning for the south. See below for the beautiful Harmonie and the more reserved and shy Euro4. 

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Getting close to accurate

Who know which one is accurate Not too much in it now though. Here’s the ECM ... 

[West is Best]

21 minutes ago, NeilN said:

Yes the models seem to be a bit dull and lifeless, but isnt it too early in the game?

I'm sure many a good winter have started like this and have built upon it. As long as it stays dry and is cool is what matters. 

I don't think there's much evidence of it being dry though? Pretty much a soaking for the next week or so.

There was a guy called Bill Firkin who used to post on the precursor to this forum c 20-25 years ago. He was a spectacular troll until he got banned: used to speak about 'the cut-off.' His theory was that if we don't have cold by January 15th, I think that was the date, then winter was over  Needless to say it was a terrible wind-up and devoid of evidence.

February used to be the month I remember for the most embedded cold and snow.

[sheikhy]

If anyone wants to know ecm has pushed the snow further east this morning!!dont know what that does in terms of accumulations but i have a feeling the eastward trend could continue!!pretty dead forum this morning!!