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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Whats happening with these gfs ensembles at just 4 days out!!not only have they gone colder for the end of this week which means a higher chance of snow now but between the 3rd and the 5th there is still a large scatter and some bring in even colder 850s of -7 or -8 for the end of this week!! They flatline to -5 for the majority of the run!❄🥶

    Screenshot_20201201-193156_Chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    It's going to be what it's going to be, but what is it going to be? 😜

    Actually glad I've only had time to lurk, seems we're all 100% committed to the perfect blizzard!

    Looking at the reliable (allegedly) there are differences, next week seems a long way away, so let's get Friday over first.

    Some great posts over the last couple of days, some very informative posts.

    Hard to look at the models at the moment without an eye towards the strat and PV...

    In any case I suspect lampposts are going to be more informative and accurate than snow depth charts.

    ECH1-72.gif

    UN72-21.gif

    gemnh-0-72.png

    iconnh-0-72.png

    gfsnh-0-72.png

    gfsnh-0-72 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    ECM is excellent.  The complaints going on and the cold spell has collapsed posts are bizarre.  It’s 1/12/20....looking nice to me

     

    BFTP

    Yes Bftp. A rather nice set up going into mid December that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    29 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Whats happening with these gfs ensembles at just 4 days out!!not only have they gone colder for the end of this week which means a higher chance of snow now but between the 3rd and the 5th there is still a large scatter and some bring in even colder 850s of -7 or -8 for the end of this week!! They flatline to -5 for the majority of the run!❄🥶

    Screenshot_20201201-193156_Chrome.jpg

    It's why we need to take any tentative uptick of the mean 850s in the GEFS FI with a pinch of salt. The short term has trended a tad chiller in that regard and the mid-term onwards is flipping around like you would expect in such a pattern. For now we take the chill in the air and any snow that may come our way this week while keeping our fingers crossed that the month continues in a similar vein 🙂 

    Edited by Steel City Skies
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    We are not far away(forecast) from going into neg values now especially the AO,this should slow down the trop pv or become reversal with high latitude blocking,where these high latitude blocks form or occur is anyone's guess but there are some outrageous charts showing up in the gefs ens 

    nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.da95656bb971a510e50be0f7cf322e5f.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.52063c81c92cb41af4a545f036688890.gif

    the NAO goes into neg too with more of a buckle in the jet stream(meridional flow) as is what we are seeing happening now in the models,how long these neg values will persist is again unknown

    in the more mediate time,an interesting week to ten days coming up weather wise and on the models

    good luck everyone😏

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    ECM is excellent.  The complaints going on and the cold spell has collapsed posts are bizarre.  It’s 1/12/20....looking nice to me

     

    BFTP

    I would call them excellent, just seasonal temperatures, which after 6 years of scorching hot Decembers is sort of a welcome change I guess

     

    eps_pluim_tt_06290.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Some eye catching Canadian temperature anomalies (850mb) for around midweek with yet more records set to tumble.

     

    Also nice to have an interesting start to winter here in the UK for a change.🙂

     

    ECH100-48.thumb.png.9583b13a19706ba9c4e1714a92701a33.pnggfsna-15-48.thumb.png.2a21ac09b6aa426665becebf2944a7de.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Lol MATT you are a true entertainer,love your posts👌

    and what could go wrong goes wrong on the trusty NAVGEM😛

    navgemnh-0-180.thumb.png.a6a15eb3bb43da898543584398d31018.pngnavgemnh-1-180.thumb.png.b60db5399949ca39b9c2c2f84a3041cc.png

    get out the barbies,i mean the bbq's😜

    a trend setter or a dud?

    we can't be too complacent by what the good models are showing and vice versa.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Could be some back edge snow on this for the Cotswolds, Chilterns etc but looking fairly wet overall for most areas.

    image.thumb.png.c4a0631b530f0b05f358c2eb066ceceb.png

    ICON sticking with its guns somewhat - any precipitation exits into the north sea before circulating back round into the far northeast/northern Scotland, dissipating in the Atlantic. 

    image.thumb.png.e913b5ffd000c5099e4a2deea30870b4.png

    Disappointing for most of England & Wales. 

    Edited by Eskimo
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

    Could be some back edge snow on this for the Cotswolds, Chilterns etc but looking fairly wet overall for most areas.

    image.thumb.png.c4a0631b530f0b05f358c2eb066ceceb.png

    ICON sticking with its guns somewhat - any precipitation exits into the north sea before circulating back round into northern Scotland, dissipating in the Atlantic. 

    image.thumb.png.e913b5ffd000c5099e4a2deea30870b4.png

    Disappointing for most of England & Wales. 

    Same area on ecm and gfs more wintry🤔!!!dont count it out just yet!!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    observation that the back end of week two sees the euro low height anomoly drain away across the extended ens all three models ..... is this a new trend or an over reaction to something upstream ?  The eps clusters look like it may be the latter - tomorrow’s suites will reveal more 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Better ecm op tonight...but I think it will take more than a nuclear explosion to get that Russian high to move (it never goes anywhere).

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    Not a bad ICON 18z out to t120. Would definitely feel cold in the slack flow and there’s a decent amount of amplification upstream as well.

    B1BF2F0C-F00E-4E60-B6DD-BB4E8F58A842.png

    443938A3-1029-454C-AE14-9EF5AB111F95.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Latest eps clusters show plenty of N 'ern blocking in our vicinity but as @Nick F says,there isn't much to shift this pattern at the moment with this trough parked over the UK.we want this trough to push further SE cleanly without other shortwaves phasing with it so that the high can build over the top and then retrogress west(this is a natural route because of lower heights in mainland Europe) then into the Atlantic and then up towards Greenland,this in turn would allow floodgates to open from the north,some of the gefs ens shows this route as you have probably viewed,a tall order i know but not impossible.

    20201201211718-1d4a02d483016e6a4d21bc2b3e222ecd50edcdb3.thumb.png.1f9b0e2235a832f651c3485ce937e6b0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Icon still going for snow  Thursday night into Friday   as the front wraps around down the spine of the country 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Icon still going for snow  Thursday night into Friday   as the front wraps around down the spine of the country 

    Gfs looking very good so far!no deepening low at 48 hours and even slacker!!!

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