Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Methuselah]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I think the invisible block might be working in our favour, Pete!  

I can't see it!

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

How many more feeble excuses can there be? Every year (bar about three?) something 'scuppers' Snowmageddon: moon filaments, invisible walls, other miscellaneous bugbears... Could it possibly be that possibly, just possibly, nobody knows how to forecast the upcoming season's weather???

Yes my grandad once told me to watch out for Robins flying upside down from east to west. Said it meant bitter weather. That said he did like his ale

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I can't see it!

There's no deep cold forecast before the 17th mate. There never really was. I wouldn't expect any nirvana charts for another 4 days or so

[SMU]

Eve - so the ECM V UKMO have one big fundamental difference with Energy distribution at 144-

UKMO being the most amplified has managed to get high pressure directly North of the UK & as a result the atlantic system is steered NW up west of Iceland > this same system on the ECM moves NE through the block bringing the milder air.

There has been considerable change over the last 24-48 hours working in favour of a good outcome the UKMO has mileage, however so does the ECM + Mean

Lets see what tomorrow looks like...

[Djdazzle]

No real signs of significant cold. Don’t know why some are so disappointed, because apart from useless day 10 charts, there never was!

[ghoneym]

Seasonal MJO cycle at phases 5 & 6 shown for 2 SD's on the RMM plot (MJO strength currently being plotted/forecast less than this). So many other factors at play currently also, so use loosely I would suggest.

   

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by ghoneym
Adding a plot

[Portsmouth Sun]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

No real signs of significant cold. Don’t know why some are so disappointed, because apart from useless day 10 charts, there never was!

Unfortunately lots on here treat a D10 as gospel, i've no idea why.  For what it's worth the next few days remain cold (cold heavy rain in Portsmouth now)  with a slight warming into next week, before it's all up in the air as no model has a proper grip on things and change at the drop of a hat. 

[LRD]

Sigh. There's an irritated tone that's crept into this thread over the last hour or so. I think some of us need to change out of our tight pants

Meanwhile, the GFS spaghetti continues to show an FI drop in 850s. Might be something in it, there might not be

[Paul]

Sorry to stop this mid-flow but the forum software seems to slow-down at the moment once threads reach about this size, so a fresh one will be up soon. 

Edit, and here it is: