Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[phil nw.]

The polar profile is certainly looking promising with gaps appearing here,there and everywhere as the trop.vortex continues to look under par. 
The trend over 24hrs on the ukmo 12 z run shows a further move of wedging heights across our north.Compare today's with yesterday's chart for day 5.

Not yet a cold pattern for us with those disrupting lows nearby.The probability now of a slightly milder phase as winds turn more from the Atlantic,but not zonality as we know with such a weak Atlantic setup.

Meanwhile blocking across the north and east continuing to hold and extend in the right areas.

 

[Methuselah]

Well, when and if something like this gets to within, say, 5-days of t+0, I'll take it seriously... Up until then, the boys are crying 'WOLF' IMHO!?

    

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The polar profile is certainly looking promising with gaps appearing here,there and everywhere as the trop.vortex continues to look under par. 
The trend over 24hrs on the ukmo 12 z run shows a further move of wedging heights across our north.Compare today's with yesterday's chart for day 5.

Not yet a cold pattern for us with those disrupting lows nearby.The probability now of a slightly milder phase as winds turn more from the Atlantic,but not zonality as we know with such a weak Atlantic setup.

Meanwhile blocking across the north and east continuing to hold and extend in the right areas.

 

Yes Phil, UKMO probably the best pick of the bunch at day 6, with a more solid looking ridge over the GIN corridor. This would perhaps go on to prevent Atlantic lows spinning NE of the UK and perhaps force the jet on a more southerly track into Europe.

 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, when and if something like this gets to within, say, 5-days of t+0, I'll take it seriously... Up until then, the boys are crying 'WOLF' IMHO!?

    

You be careful GC you be hung drawn and three quartered decent nhp atm and zero sign of anything truly zonal. That's all it is for me tbh. Good signs tho obv 

[Zak M]

This mornings GFS parallel delivers the same amount of uppers to the UK as the GFS 00z op run... so it's a pretty cold run by the looks of it

   

Edited December 7, 2020 by Zak M

[Ali1977]

Day 9 on control, this one looks promising

[booferking]

Control with a cross polar flow nice. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, ITSY said:

I find this such a weird and unusual chart. No genuine northern latitude blocking yet also No Atlantic. Strangely spooky, everything just...goes quiet...


 

Only one way that set up goes...let's just say it wouldn't be mild for the UK

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

even the 12z gfs op having lost its way in week 2 would head v cold in week 3 

Yes just posted above then saw your post...spot on

[terrier]

I’m struggling here in the near term it looks like cold rain to me from the gfs and Ukmo. And even if we do get a split what’s to say it will even favour the U.K.. All that cold to the east could quite easily head down into Greece which has happened in years gone by. Even a strat warming doesn’t guarantee cold to our shores.  I just can’t see anything away from the highest hills been cold rain looking at the reliable range on the models . And all these eye candy charts are in deep fantasy island which very rarely count down to the reliable. Think I will go with pest from the west for Xmas than any beast from the east. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, terrier said:

I’m struggling here in the near term 

 

Well there's your issue.

This whole potential wintry spell has ticked down since the back end of October- the building blocks were well in place even back then. That's why I've been so bullish over the past few weeks. It really couldn't have been advertised any louder. Hence now we have strat guys like Chiono getting excited.

Of course this is the UK, so it could all go wrong...but let's hope not. We have quite a few tickets in the raffle here.

[terrier]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well there's your issue.

This whole potential wintry spell has ticked down since the back end of October- the building blocks were well in place even back then. That's why I've been so bullish over the past few weeks. It really couldn't have been advertised any louder. Hence now we have strat guys like Chiono getting excited.

Of course this is the UK, so it could all go wrong...but let's hope not. We have quite a few tickets in the raffle here.

But as we all know if it can go wrong in the U.K. it usually will. Probably get a shortwave that will scupper it all at the last minute. Joking aside as we know even with the strat favourable it doesn’t guarantee anything for us we could quite easily be on the wrong side of it. Like I said I’d be backing the pest from the west than the beast from the east as we all know they are as rare as hens teeth.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

Don’t forget everyone that invisible brick wall I highlighted last night - the one that Atlantic systems cannot cross due to the split. They go under or north or dissipate 

Indeed Ed, as one sees the GFS deep lows suddenly ‘evaporate’ in 24 hours.

 

BFTP

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

But as we all know if it can go wrong in the U.K. it usually will. Probably get a shortwave that will scupper it all at the last minute. Joking aside as we know even with the strat favourable it doesn’t guarantee anything for us we could quite easily be on the wrong side of it. Like I said I’d be backing the pest from the west than the beast from the east as we all know they are as rare as hens teeth.

You do you. 
No one is actually forecasting a "Beast from the east" we know it'll probably not end up like that.. but we still have signs of colder weather, and also the background signals are good also. Can't see this "Pest from the west" happening for a while.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

22 minutes ago, terrier said:

I’m struggling here in the near term it looks like cold rain to me from the gfs and Ukmo. And even if we do get a split what’s to say it will even favour the U.K.. All that cold to the east could quite easily head down into Greece which has happened in years gone by. Even a strat warming doesn’t guarantee cold to our shores.  I just can’t see anything away from the highest hills been cold rain looking at the reliable range on the models . And all these eye candy charts are in deep fantasy island which very rarely count down to the reliable. Think I will go with pest from the west for Xmas than any beast from the east. 

 

We are perhaps getting ahead of ourselves regarding what could happen long term. There is most definitely a rule of thought regarding low sea ice in certain places couple with the ural block putting sustained pressure on that Vortex though.. Its for sure meandering and looks far more susceptible than last year. And do bare in mind an SSW increases our chances of significant cold by 60%...im pretty sure most would take those odds. Their are still plenty of ENS from the GFS pointing the way to some colder options moving forward.. But the key word here is.. UNCERTAINTY RULES!! It's gonna be a fine hunt and chase this year for sure.. 

Edited December 7, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Anthony Burden]

Western Russian high on gfs 12 z 144hrs forever pushing west and into Scandinavia.

My opinion only,will eventually be the main playing card regarding cold over UK

after a spell of Atlantic with around or slightly above temperatures and lows going

nowhere from the west other than filling,against continental block.

[swfc]

40 minutes ago, terrier said:

I’m struggling here in the near term it looks like cold rain to me from the gfs and Ukmo. And even if we do get a split what’s to say it will even favour the U.K.. All that cold to the east could quite easily head down into Greece which has happened in years gone by. Even a strat warming doesn’t guarantee cold to our shores.  I just can’t see anything away from the highest hills been cold rain looking at the reliable range on the models . And all these eye candy charts are in deep fantasy island which very rarely count down to the reliable. Think I will go with pest from the west for Xmas than any beast from the east. 

 

Nothing wrong with your points. Nothing in the reliable time frames to contradict your thoughts. The PV is under attack and weak going forward but things change very quickly even with all the background signals in the world. It's all about opinions and long may it Continue, after all non of us are experts are we?? 

[Mapantz]

Please do not reply to posts that you think could be attempts at a wind up, or similar. It usually descends in to many posts of toing and froing.. use the report button and let a moderator deal with it. 

[jamesthemonkeh]

Arpege and Harmonie suggesting some wintry showers for SE England tonight (hope this isn't too nowcasting for here...they are model output)

[SMU]

ECM says YES to the UKMO !

[seabreeze86]

ECM going down the UKMO route here. UKMO stronger arctic high. ECM stronger wedge of heights to the north of Scandinavia 

[Day 10]

120 then, GFS, UKMO, ECM

Edited December 7, 2020 by Day 10

[KTtom]

Im speachless if this is good .... hope im wrong, but really ?. ..and please dont reply as to what might happen if this or that was to happen, im commenting on what it shows.

 

Ecm 144

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by KTtom

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

120 then, GFS, UKMO, ECM

ECM actually has the least impressive polar profile there

[seabreeze86]

ECM doesn’t link the Arctic high to the heights from Scandinavia so UKMO is the best solution by far. These Arctic highs are so problematic to model so expect big changes good or bad even in what we would call the semi reliable time frame