Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Bricriu]

3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nice to see snow around the country....must be cold then

One gets a feeling there’ll be some ‘relaxation’ around mid month but will that just be a bit of shuffling or a change of pattern.

 

BFTP

It looks like a pattern change to me with the heights over Iberia. I notice the GFS has now gone for a milder outlook too. So it looks increasingly likely that the Atlantic will make  a return by mid- month.

[Jason M]

4 hours ago, Weathizard said:

Iberian heights becoming a very prominent trend in FI, unfortunately.

 

Its increasingly showing in the GEFS as a trend on individual ensembles. Far from certain that it will verify but fits the MO of recent years where heights are centered over eastern Europe in late Autumn with Iberian heights becoming more prominent as we enter the main winter period. Its interesting how we can all interpret things differently though as from the output I've seen I remain to be convinced of any meaningful HLB whatsoever. Yes, we see high pressure at times to our NE, but its largely via a ridge and the heights are centered to our E rather than NE leading to drag of mild uppers into NW Europe. End result is the potential for 'sliders' but minus the 850s needed for meaningful snow. The sort of wintry mix we have seen across the country  today is about the best achievable over the next few weeks IMHO. If that floats your boat then fine.

Love to be wrong thought!!!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It looks like a pattern change to me with the heights over Iberia. I notice the GFS has now gone for a milder outlook too. So it looks increasingly likely that the Atlantic will make  a return by mid- month.

I would say that's the form horse too.

For how long is the question ...

[Frosty.]

Although the GFS 6z op stunk the place out longer term, the mean looks better..as in colder..for the majority!

[Bricriu]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I would say that's the form horse too.

For how long is the question ...

Well, hopefully not long. You'd like to think all the blocking will pay off at some point, but things don't necessarily work out like that of course!

[mountain shadow]

No posts, I wonder why...

Looks like the ukmo is going the way of the 0z ECM.

Countrywide Westerlies by next Thursday. Bowling ball shaped low and no slider,

 

GFS does slide, but there's only winner here i'm afraid..

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by mountain shadow

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No posts, I wonder why...

Looks like the ukmo is going the way of the 0z ECM.

Countrywide Westerlies by next Thursday. Bowling ball shaped low and no slider,

Absolutely nowhere for the Atlantic to go though other than SE.  That Russian high is like a brick wall and is probably being underestimated at 6 days out?  I would suggest the status quo will be maintained for a good while yet until either the high retreats or flexes its muscles.

[Skullzrulerz]

I must say it's definitely quiet in here especially with some

Looks like the Atlantic will win out one way or another sadly this was the case in quite a few long term winter forecasts

[Faronstream]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

I must say it's definitely quiet in here especially with some

Looks like the Atlantic will win out one way or another sadly this was the case in quite a few long term winter forecasts

Still the pv will be weaker than average so for how long time is the question.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The GFS is starting to look a little out on its own now (unfortunately).

At 144 hours, 12Z run continues with Low Pressure in the Atlantic becoming squashed and disrupting to the South of the UK. 

This continues at 159 hours with Southerly tracking Lows and an Easterly flow over the UK. Fairly decent heights to the North from the Russian block.

 

If only it was the UKMO showing this lol. I think it’s plausible though and would have to hope somehow the ECMWF and UKMO are being too progressive with the Atlantic.

Edited December 4, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[stratty]

GFS still offers lots of cold hope.....

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No posts, I wonder why...

Looks like the ukmo is going the way of the 0z ECM.

Countrywide Westerlies by next Thursday. Bowling ball shaped low and no slider,

 

GFS does slide, but there's only winner here i'm afraid..

 

Is that at 144 for those two charts or are seeing some thing broader upstream on the GFS to concern coldies. Personally I have this sense to always question Ukm 144

[Tim Bland]

It wouldn’t take many tweaks for somewhere to get a lot of snow from this ...

Edited December 4, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Matt H]

Rising heights to the north at t192 on the GFS, let’s see if it’s enough to make a difference this time...

UKMO on the other hand looks a bit grim at t144.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It wouldn’t take many tweaks for somewhere to get a lot of snow from this ...

Yes there are some potential snowmakers in and amongst the current output thats for sure.

Absolutely no sign of the Atlantic barrelling through that high to our East anyway.

Slider will continue to be the watch word for the foreseeable I think.....

Edited December 4, 2020 by Kentish Snowman

[nick sussex]

The shortwave phasing as alluded to earlier is important . You can see the differences between the outputs so far.

For newbies this shortwave phasing effects the axis of the incoming upstream low .

The upstream low will shift more ne initially as it phases with the shortwave over the UK , that’s not what we want to see as we want energy heading se .

The GFS just about gets away with this because it has a shallow feature which is more easily absorbed and the phasing takes place further south .

The UKMO phases this much further north.

 

[Downburst]

With polar front way south of normal and low heights in Europe and a very strong Russian High edging into Scandinavia things look to have a lot of potential for me if it's cold outbreaks you are after. The raging frigid wind howling outside also tells it's story as it blows in from a northerly, a real winter storm. 

@168 hrs this is not bad at all

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm not even seeing why there is despair over the ECM run of this morning. Looks better for wave breaking into the strat to me?

Whilst the GFS is easier on the eye, there's not much point in sliders that are too marginal to produce the goods at this point.

Edited December 4, 2020 by CreweCold

[TSNWK]

This place would be on fire now if UK met had elected to spit out a run similar to this morning's...  I guess the previous 2 ECm also focus the mind

GFS on its own at just 144 against UK and ECm and I guess one would think they both might have a better grasp of things this side of the pond..

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not even seeing why there is despair over the ECM run of this morning. Looks better for wave breaking into the strat to me?

Because we will see a deluge of rain .

[Catacol]

I never cherry pick a chart. Ha. Until now. Significant uncertainty out beyond 72 hours I'd say - but these are the sorts of charts we dream of here in the south. -2 uppers off the continent turning to -4 as the low passes through. Ah....if only.....  And only at 150h....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Because we will see a deluge of rain .

Well it may be a case of kissing a few frogs to find the prince.

I'll put up with any amount of rain if we can secure a January SSW

[northwestsnow]

Typically the least appealing run from the 00z suite ( EC det) looks like it will verify now UKMO has flipped to the  Atlantic taking over...

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not even seeing why there is despair over the ECM run of this morning. Looks better for wave breaking into the strat to me?

Well personally I prefer a seasonal Christmas than unseasonable Spring.

There's always the risk that something else occurs weather wise which overrides any strat influence.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Typically the least appealing run from the 00z suite ( EC det) looks like it will verify now UKMO has flipped to the  Atlantic taking over...

The Atlantic is not taking over on the UKMO. It's still blocked, but we're on the wrong side.