Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Paul_1978]

58 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Erm.... no comments on this yet? we may be under a slack westerly flow but these latest charts have certainly developed ridging to our north... Itll be interesting to see if this is consolodated tonight and tomorrow .
 

I think that’s because you and John are the only people here who know how to read them!

[johnholmes]

25 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

How accurate are these charts?

70-75% 6-10 day and 60-65 % usually for the 8-14

[IDO]

For all the nascent blocking to our north viz EC longer range and GFS runs, it does seem that we are caught in a no mans land where the charts look impressive with potential but so far we are just not seeing the cold close. The D10 charts from the 06z is another case in point:

Wedges to our north but the UK within the shadow of that cut off low and simply no avenue to cold, just scraps.

Maybe it will lead somewhere eventually, but ATM this underlying pattern is not doing it for me!

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Erm.... no comments on this yet? we may be under a slack westerly flow but these latest charts have certainly developed ridging to our north... Itll be interesting to see if this is consolodated tonight and tomorrow .
 

Not got time this morning but will do an update this afternoon, anyway its snowed here this morning at the dizzy height of 42 feet AMSL!. T=1 and moderate sleet at the moment but now turning to rain. Bet the Peak District is not pleasant for driving.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Great drama in here folks... Far better than Elderado..

I'm not convinced by last night's EC46.. Don't ask me why, but perhaps there seems to be a major air of uncertainty in the atmosphere this Winter. The Russian High remains pretty dominant for some time yet... That could be bad... It could be good! What I will say is there are better chances of some settled conditions around mid month with a return to fog and frost a possibility. Towards the latter part of the month and beyond the situation becomes more uninspiring, with a distinct lack of Heights towards our NW and NE... But there are circulating rumours of a lot of stress being placed on the TPV.. So if this situation would occur the whole NWP could be thrown out of zinc... And I have a feeling we could be looking at one this season... So most definitely there will be a lot to play for in the coming weeks... Try not to get to dissatisfied with dodgy op runs and the like folks, one dsy they look great.. The next they look Meh... Its the bigger picture we need to look at... And I would say most definitely all options are on the table this year, certainly better prospects than the last couple of years. 

I will update you on the EC Long range anomalies when they update in the next couple of days.

 

[Weathizard]

Iberian heights becoming a very prominent trend in FI, unfortunately.

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Iberian heights becoming a very prominent trend in FI, unfortunately.

 

Have you got the ones for Genoa?!  Thats where we need the low pressure to stick?! 

[STRiZZY]

32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How this for a Christmas Eve chart? One of the extended GFS ensembles. A UK record breaking high pressure (record is 1053.6mb) and a frigid easterly to go with it

Yes please! 

[alexisj9]

32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How this for a Christmas Eve chart? One of the extended GFS ensembles. A UK record breaking high pressure (record is 1053.6mb) and a frigid easterly to go with it

That looks appsolutely phantastic, bank.

Snow would stream in off the North sea, no problem there.

[mushymanrob]

35 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not got time this morning but will do an update this afternoon, anyway its snowed here this morning at the dizzy height of 42 feet AMSL!. T=1 and moderate sleet at the moment but now turning to rain. Bet the Peak District is not pleasant for driving.

as far as i know, its all wet slush, no settling.

ive not seen 1 flake here in Derby.. not that im bothered... for me its a great blizzard or nothing.

[Methuselah]

And, at t+384, the 06Z has my second favourite winter weather... and with the model's stunning Day-16 success rate in mind... it's all down to @Tamara's Housewarming Party!

    

[mushymanrob]

39 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

70-75% 6-10 day and 60-65 % usually for the 8-14

When consistent

[STRiZZY]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

When consistent

60% of the time it works every time

[bluearmy]

Are we beginning to see signs of an evolution where a large ridge is thrown up ahead of the stalling Atlantic trough at some point in week 2 ?  That may look like it brings warmth to w Europe but many a cold spell has begun like this as the ridge heads to our nne  built by the WWA ahead of it and we see a cold continental flow establish beneath (or ne)

[Country Boy]

Well done some of you guys.. icon for my area in North Essex was spot on

We got 2 inches of snow, . Hope some of your Christmas day  icons come true

A white Christmas will cheer everyone up

[SnowBlake]

39 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That looks appsolutely phantastic, bank.

Snow would stream in off the North sea, no problem there.

I think more so for those Norfolk and north, not sure if there is enough distance over sea to generate enough precip for those a bit further south.

Off to Latvia but flying in and out via Tallinn as we planned to do 3 days there before heading to partner's family in Latvia, so as long as I can enter Tallinn and go direct to Latvia (central eastern), from 17th afternoon til 3rd Jan will hopefully get my fill of snow. Last year we had a few showers but 10 miles north and south got hit by several inches.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

9 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Snowing here at 20M ASL so much for lack of cold air and no lowland snowfall  

Well I didn't expect any snowfall and certainly not for it to turn into the event that it did good few cms then after 4am some brilliant thundersnow that was so loud people were phoning the police thinking it was explosions / bombs going off!! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nice to see snow around the country....must be cold then

UKMO pick of bunch his morning with a disappointing ECM but not with majority of support.  T144 still beyond reliability.  One gets a feeling there’ll be some ‘relaxation’ around mid month but will that just be a bit of shuffling or a change of pattern.

 

BFTP

[NewEra21]

At least it should continue to feel seasonal if nothing else. GFS op once again one of the mildest options longer term. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by NewEra21

[Catacol]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Actually just notice the ECM is the 12z from that day 

Here's the ECM 0z

For once a tendency to under amplify the pattern. I wonder how much of our current "surprise" (I'll admit to being a bit surprised at the winter positives of the current phase) is down to poor modelling of pacific forcing. The RMM plots are showing next to no amplitude really of the MJO - but wiser heads than mine are pointing out that activity is higher than is being resolved by those plots. We are retaining that Nino-esque forcing to the pattern, conducive for greater amplification, and the models are now definitely picking up a growing signal for the disruption to the vortex that was suggested was a possibility in the autumn preamble to winter but now looks more like a probability. Personally I'm loving that Ural high. Meanwhile Nina is falling in strength - daily values for ENSO 3.4 are back closer to 1 than to 1.5.

There is a possible pathway through the winter that could look pretty good for snow seekers based on trends and current data. Many of the forecasts for the season were grounded in traditional Nina trends and the fact that the vortex in November got off to a flying start up top, driven by very cold air aloft. A coupled vortex driven by an ever flatter Nina atlantic drove wise minds towards front loaded cold and a poor back half. But the atmosphere refuses to couple with Nina (assisted by ongoing MJO forcing) and it would appear that the vortex is not going to couple any time soon. Let's be clear on this - these are HUGE changes to the context that was seen only 4 weeks ago....and if tropospheric forcing continues to rule the roost, the vortex spins down and potentially splits, and the Nina signal fades away (and add on low solar, high snow cover levels now across Asia, impact of low sea ice, QBO moving ever closer to aggregate neutral) then this winter could provide something of real interest - and for once possibly in the heart of winter!!

I'm on the cusp of transitioning from growing interest/intrigue to the edge of excitement. It is wise to keep expectations down, and also to remember that weather forecasting is strewn with failures and dogged by unpredictability - but we are all on this site in order to have a go at reading what might happen (whether that is using a 5 day horizon or a longer term one) and things are taking a very positive turn right now in my opinion. I am in the same camp broadly speaking as @CreweCold though possibly with a longer lense through into end of Jan/early Feb as the core component.

Meanwhile pictures of snow in lowland areas - those enjoying a brief blast of winter - cash in and smile. I hope to do the same soon. I'll be leaving Somerset and moving to Lincolnshire in time for January. That in itself has to be grounds for optimism in terms of cold weather potential...

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Catacol

[Frosty.]

Why has it gone so quiet?...ah I c..a nods as good as a wink to a blind man (monty python)!

Edited December 4, 2020 by Jon Snow

[DavidS]

Yes, the GFS 6z definitely takes a turn for the mild in Fantasy Island, or should I say Nightmare Island. But of course the models always want to revert back to climatology when they are not sure what to do, (he says trying to convince himself).

[Radiating Dendrite]

The problem is we lose the low heights over southern europe in FI.

This has been a big pain the last few winters and these are critical to a UK cold spell.

If we see a Euro high establish, it could be difficult to shift.

[PiscesStar]

3 hours ago, Country Boy said:

Well done some of you guys.. icon for my area in North Essex was spot on

We got 2 inches of snow, . Hope some of your Christmas day  icons come true

A white Christmas will cheer everyone up

Sadly not for us in se corner 

[Georgina]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

as far as i know, its all wet slush, no settling.

ive not seen 1 flake here in Derby.. not that im bothered... for me its a great blizzard or nothing.

We got some in matlock and up on the tops got a dumping